Is Evergrande too big to fail? The government is likely to step in due to how important Evergrande is, according to analysts. “Evergrande is such an important real estate developer, and it would be a strong signal if anything happened to it,” said Dan Wang, an economist at Hang Seng Bank. “I believe there will be some supporting measures from the central government, or even the central bank, trying to bail out Evergrande.” But a restructuring could be more likely, according to other analysts. “The most likely endgame is now a managed restructuring in which other developers take over Evergrande’s uncompleted projects in exchange for a share of its land bank,” Williams of Capital Economics said in a note last week. WATCH NOWEvergrande is an important property developer and China is likely to bail it out It’s likely that the government will prioritize homebuyers and banks over other parties, he said. “Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that haven’t yet been finished. The company’s other creditors would suffer,” Williams wrote. Investment bank Natixis said the Chinese government will avoid “systemic risks” in the lead-up to the 2022 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, given its historical importance. “However, this would also imply China Evergrande’s debt crisis may snowball down the road,” the bank said in a note, adding that economic growth will not mitigate financial losses as was the case in the past.
总之恒大死肯定是死定了，完全救活它需要支援它六千多亿，没人愿意做善事捐给恒大这么多钱。现在的问题是它的死法是啥，归纳一下有这么几种：
第一，最平淡的死法，恒大这个企业还能保持，主要股东全部换人，大股东许家印出局，手上的股份全部零对价转让。新股东接手公司，提供资金承担债务。
第二，再惨一点的死法，没有新股东愿意接手，恒大挨个把手里的优质资产全卖了，拿着钱尝试把修了一半的期房拼命竣工。但是优质资产始终有限，最后一定还是欠一屁股债还不上，大部分期房最终也都竣工不了。最终企业破产，进入漫长的清算流程，恒大消失，许家印变成老赖。
第三，最惨的死法，连卖资产都没人接手，现金流完全断裂，连破产都来不及，从债权人到购房人，全都陷入彻底的绝望之中。地产债务风暴由此成形，所有人都无从躲避。
应该是第一和第二的结合。先让恒大自己变卖资产，这样一些白手套和当权的权贵们可以捡到大便宜吃到大块肉，然后等恒大硬顶到实在撑不住了，政府接管。政府接管之后，所有的债务人都不发声了。
我说的不是恒大股份，我说的他吃到嘴的那千亿。。。他管理恒大的时候不留余地的分红，我记得高峰的一年他一个人就分了500亿多现金走。所以恒大没有资产积累，满身是债，跟他这么操作有很大关系。
许家印自己靠分红早就把资产转移到国外了。 恒大破产不破产和他没什么关系了。他现在最怕的是肉身被扣，后面肯定无数小动作在保自己平安。
The government is likely to step in due to how important Evergrande is, according to analysts.
“Evergrande is such an important real estate developer, and it would be a strong signal if anything happened to it,” said Dan Wang, an economist at Hang Seng Bank. “I believe there will be some supporting measures from the central government, or even the central bank, trying to bail out Evergrande.”
But a restructuring could be more likely, according to other analysts.
“The most likely endgame is now a managed restructuring in which other developers take over Evergrande’s uncompleted projects in exchange for a share of its land bank,” Williams of Capital Economics said in a note last week. WATCH NOW Evergrande is an important property developer and China is likely to bail it out
It’s likely that the government will prioritize homebuyers and banks over other parties, he said.
“Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that haven’t yet been finished. The company’s other creditors would suffer,” Williams wrote.
Investment bank Natixis said the Chinese government will avoid “systemic risks” in the lead-up to the 2022 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, given its historical importance.
“However, this would also imply China Evergrande’s debt crisis may snowball down the road,” the bank said in a note, adding that economic growth will not mitigate financial losses as was the case in the past.
怎么可能几千亿，要是那点早解决了，去年划了就几千亿统筹贷款吧，水花都不见丁点
恒大的楼盘地都很大。 一般都是分期建设的。一般是一栋楼结构封顶政府才会批准预售这栋楼。 很难出现期房全部卖完的情况。
为啥恒大想选第二种，许老板变老赖呢？第一种许老板不就全身而退，还能继续高消费么。
有多少这种没盖完的楼呀? 感觉老百姓的钱要不回来了。银行贷款也不用还了。