https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-deadlier-coronavirus-variant-a-realistic-possibility-sage-warns-12368798 英国天空新闻报道:根据预测,未来的变种的worst case scenerio可能杀死1/3的感染者。 Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) says one of the causes of a new variant evading current vaccines is ''''almost certain'''' to happen. The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government''''s scientific advisers have warned. In a paper published on Friday, the scientists outline the chances that a new variant will evade current vaccines, saying one of the causes is "almost certain" to happen https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf They considered a scenario where a variant causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has previously occurred, with similar death rates to other coronaviruses SARS (10%) or MERS (35%). The experts said this could be caused by a "recombination" between two variants of concern or variants under investigation, such as between beta and alpha or delta variants. SAGE also looked at a scenario where the coronavirus becomes like one "that causes common colds, but with much less severe disease predominantly in the old or clinically vulnerable." Meanwhile, SAGE said a scenario where a variant evades current vaccines because of a process known as "antigenic drift" is "almost certain". Writing on Twitter, she said: "Given the impact Delta has already had, and in light of recent evidence from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), we cannot afford any more new variants emerging - we need to take preventive action now."
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) says one of the causes of a new variant evading current vaccines is ''''almost certain'''' to happen.
The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government''''s scientific advisers have warned.
In a paper published on Friday, the scientists outline the chances that a new variant will evade current vaccines, saying one of the causes is "almost certain" to happen https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf
They considered a scenario where a variant causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has previously occurred, with similar death rates to other coronaviruses SARS (10%) or MERS (35%).
The experts said this could be caused by a "recombination" between two variants of concern or variants under investigation, such as between beta and alpha or delta variants.
SAGE also looked at a scenario where the coronavirus becomes like one "that causes common colds, but with much less severe disease predominantly in the old or clinically vulnerable." Meanwhile, SAGE said a scenario where a variant evades current vaccines because of a process known as "antigenic drift" is "almost certain".
Writing on Twitter, she said: "Given the impact Delta has already had, and in light of recent evidence from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), we cannot afford any more new variants emerging - we need to take preventive action now."
变成像MERS那样是个理论上的可能性,在delta的基础上继续优化那个FCS,导致传染性进一步增强,是个相当现实的可能性。。。
这样致死率的病毒把宿主搞死了传染率不会这么高的
如果coinfect同一个病人,SARS-2可能和MERS recombinate 吗?
有,SARS-COV-2理论上是可以结合DPP4的,这两个病毒有可能进入同一个细胞发生重组,得到一部分MERS的RBD。。。不过MERS流行范围和程度都很小,在自然界发生这种事情的概率其实很小,在实验室搞要容易很多。
这些人怎么还不打疫苗?真的是要拖死我们这些打疫苗的吗?
XX留
看传染性和潜伏期。
不一定吧。1传8呢。又不是砒霜沾上就死。人家还有4-5天潜伏期,能传染到全人类死光光。
MERS流行范围小,可是SARS-2可广啊,看delta这气势,席卷全球不是梦。跟MERS coinfect的机会还是很大的。
难道也要像电脑病毒一样,电脑病毒此起彼伏,杀毒软件公司赚钱,那人类没活路了
致死率高就导致传播率低是一个误区,新冠的变异已经告诉了我们这一个事实,就是传播率厉害靠的一个是潜伏期长(包括无症状比例高)、一个是呼吸道的病毒载量。新冠致死率变高不代表无症状比例就会变低,或者潜伏期会变短,所以期望致死率变高就能传播不起来恐怕是有些做梦了。
变种和最初的covid病毒一样,都是实验室产物。和打疫苗有什么关系?不追责病毒的始作俑者,反而一天到晚追着别人打疫苗。居心叵测。
re 这个。不追究病毒始作俑者这一点非常奇怪,这也是我不相信政府或者某些科学家追求真相的原因之一。没有真相,怎么可能真的解决问题?
哦 这么说delta变种是来自印度实验室?
所以楼主贴的是理论可能发生,现实发生几率不大的吗
理论上智慧生命可能被灭无数次 。。。 小行星撞击地球导致人类灭绝的几率应该更高 。。。 毕竟无论恐龙还是猛犸象,都不是被病毒搞死的,虽然理论上也能被病毒搞死。
有真相,福奇一直否认有什么办法?他就在电视上不断的push打疫苗,看着好气!今天看他在电视上脸色暗沉,不知道是不是最近日子不好过!
现在breakthrough case越来越多,载毒量和没打疫苗得相当,也可以感染别人,你有什么根据变种一定是没打疫苗的搞出来的?
所以理论和实践往往是有差距的,这点不知道有多少人能理解
致死性和传染系数是呈反比的
精辟
这倒是 和亚麻上卖的杀小强的药一个路数
搞了半天那个kfk是对的?
你好好读读全文,里边说英国的新冠疫苗高接种率会加速这个病毒的出现,你确定你要更多人去打疫苗?
你好好读读全文,里边说英国的疫苗高接种率会加速这个病毒的出现,你确定你要更多人去打疫苗?
其实很容易理解,很多反疫苗的人和打了疫苗的人思路是一样的:就是两害相权取其轻。不同点在于,反对这个试验期疫苗的人,明显认为疫苗的比病毒更害,得了新冠也比打了疫苗容易熬过去,何况也不一定就会感染上。
原文预测的是一种scenario 现在的真实世界是,没打疫苗就已经到Delta了,你不会不知道吧