回复 22楼mindstorm的帖子 hopefully这次真的群免了 Over 60% have antibodies against coronavirus in Telangana: ICMR sero survey The fourth round of seroprevalence study in Telangana in June has revealed that seropositivity rate is 60.1 per cent among the people of the state.
About 67.6% of Indians surveyed above the age of 6 showed antibodies, according to the nationwide study, which was conducted between June and July by the government-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The survey covered 70 districts in 21 states, with 28,975 participants.
荷兰暴涨好像是放开了“nightlife", 后来吓得又把夜店关了于是又下降了 How has the Dutch government responded to the surge in cases? On Monday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admitted that the government had made a mistake by scrapping coronavirus restrictions. This marked a drastic change in stance as Rutte had earlier defended the easing of restrictions as a “logical step”, and had denied that his government had any role to play in the surge. With cases hitting a record high, the government reimposed curbs, starting with shutting nightclubs and prohibiting big events.
这里面牵涉了很多学科。
病毒一直在变异，得过了可以再得，疫苗打了得一直持续打加强针否则也是感染节节攀升，怎么群体免疫？
没用这个药的时候意大利和纽约也过来了，当年的西班牙流感什么也没有也是几个峰，这是瘟疫的客观规律。
印度用的就是英国一开始想用的：真正的群免。易感染人群全部感染一圈后，就没什么人再感染
该得的都得了，该死的都死光了
这是啥？辉瑞还在做三期的那个药吗？
美国主流媒体不报，大家就都不知道了吗？那么多发展中国家没有疫苗，怎么不用这个办法？美国控制了全世界媒体和科学家的信息渠道？
少了一条：不测不报就没有。 我认为印度现在实际感染人数，仍然至少要在10万以上。穷人得了根本不会去报去测
还是好转了吧，至少不大规模烧尸了 少测漏报的话从头到尾都有
是的，好多了。以前那个感染规模也一样要用乘法。
hopefully这次真的群免了
Over 60% have antibodies against coronavirus in Telangana: ICMR sero survey The fourth round of seroprevalence study in Telangana in June has revealed that seropositivity rate is 60.1 per cent among the people of the state.
但是病毒会不会继续变异呢？
有变种的话会差点，但是比完全没得过的还是强不少 （如果认为没有ade的话）
我怎么觉得很多美国人怎么都没被吓到
达到群免只有两条路，一是感染后自己身体制造免疫，一是打疫苗让身体制造免疫。
在美国这里，这两条路可以选择，但是很多国家的人是没有选择的。
任何病毒不用药，不疫苗的话最后都会群体免疫，只要人类的基因和免疫系统还起作用的话。
问题是这么大的代价谁来充当？ 你不想死，我也不想死，他也不想死，哪到底谁来死？
查到一个但是有点贵，以后降价了可以考虑下。希望类似的多做些出来
https://www.t-detect.com/
这个不可能，印度几亿人口，如果他们当时大规模染疫，而且也不像中国这样封城封区，只会越来越糟糕，而不可能越来越少
Did you cousume enough dosage of Conspiracy lately? Looks like not.
谁知道呢？ 现在印尼病的不行了，很多也开始吃虫药了。可以接下去观望一下走势
都2/3以上得过了，迅速的过了一遍。印度人活过60多岁的人少，年纪普遍比较轻
不是的。
没有interference的疫情曲线，不是对称的，是指数上升，但是heavy tail下降。看上面的那个红色曲线。 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease#/media/File:SIR-Modell.svg
所以直上直下的曲线都是有了干涉手段才降下来这么快。
用药也是给感染了的人用，怎么可能防止感染。
不看新闻的吗？ 印度把who 还是cdc一个人告了，因为她说伊那个药没效
解释不通阴谋论？烦
mark....
貌似很多别的国家也直上直下
How has the Dutch government responded to the surge in cases? On Monday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte admitted that the government had made a mistake by scrapping coronavirus restrictions. This marked a drastic change in stance as Rutte had earlier defended the easing of restrictions as a “logical step”, and had denied that his government had any role to play in the surge. With cases hitting a record high, the government reimposed curbs, starting with shutting nightclubs and prohibiting big events.
Mark一下
中国为什么不允许向国外邮寄伊维菌素? 国内应该不缺这个药吧？
能死的差不多都死了
对。这和裙免是两回事。裙免是大多数人有抗体，阻断传播，保护没有抗体的人。而自然筛选不保护没有抗体的人。不能经受感染的人多数已经被淘汰了。
但古巴原住民幾乎被外來天花流行病殺死，現在古巴人多半是混血而幾乎不是原住民
我猜是中国知道这个药有效，所以列为战略物资管制出口了。