WSJ Opinion 疫苗的风险大于被advertised的吗?作者是ucla医学院教授和yale公共健康专业的教授

CleverBeaver
楼主 (北美华人网)
https://apple.news/Af2kc-idnTsSEKTEan1ICKw
Are Covid Vaccines Riskier Than Advertised? There are concerning trends on blood clots and low platelets, not that the authorities will tell you.

By Joseph A. Ladapo and Harvey A. Risch
One remarkable aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic has been how often unpopular scientific ideas, from the lab-leak theory to the efficacy of masks, were initially dismissed, even ridiculed, only to resurface later in mainstream thinking. Differences of opinion have sometimes been rooted in disagreement over the underlying science. But the more common motivation has been political. 
Another reversal in thinking may be imminent. Some scientists have raised concerns that the safety risks of Covid-19 vaccines have been underestimated. But the politics of vaccination has relegated their concerns to the outskirts of scientific thinking—for now. 
Historically, the safety of medications—including vaccines—is often not fully understood until they are deployed in large populations. Examples include rofecoxib (Vioxx), a pain reliever that increased the risk of heart attack and stroke; antidepressants that appeared to increase suicide attempts among young adults; and an influenza vaccine used in the 2009-10 swine flu epidemic that was suspected of causing febrile convulsions and narcolepsy in children. Evidence from the real world is valuable, as clinical trials often enroll patients who aren’t representative of the general population. We learn more about drug safety from real-world evidence and can adjust clinical recommendations to balance risk and benefits. 
The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or Vaers, which is administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration, is a database that allows Americans to document adverse events that happen after receiving a vaccine. The FDA and CDC state that the database isn’t designed to determine whether the events were caused by a vaccine. This is true. But the data can nonetheless be evaluated, accounting for its strengths and weaknesses, and that is what the CDC and FDA say they do.
The Vaers data for Covid-19 vaccines show an interesting pattern. Among the 310 million Covid-19 vaccines given, several adverse events are reported at high rates in the days immediately after vaccination, and then fall precipitously afterward. Some of these adverse events might have occurred anyway. The pattern may be partly attributable to the tendency to report more events that happen soon after vaccination. 
The database can’t say what would have happened in the absence of vaccination. Nonetheless, the large clustering of certain adverse events immediately after vaccination is concerning, and the silence around these potential signals of harm reflects the politics surrounding Covid-19 vaccines. Stigmatizing such concerns is bad for scientific integrity and could harm patients.
Four serious adverse events follow this arc, according to data taken directly from Vaers: low platelets (thrombocytopenia); noninfectious myocarditis, or heart inflammation, especially for those under 30; deep-vein thrombosis; and death. Vaers records 321 cases of myocarditis within five days of receiving a vaccination, falling to almost zero by 10 days. Prior research has shown that only a fraction of adverse events are reported, so the true number of cases is almost certainly higher. This tendency of underreporting is consistent with our clinical experience. 
Analyses to confirm or dismiss these findings should be performed using large data sets of health-insurance companies and healthcare organizations. The CDC and FDA are surely aware of these data patterns, yet neither agency has acknowledged the trend.
The implication is that the risks of a Covid-19 vaccine may outweigh the benefits for certain low-risk populations, such as children, young adults and people who have recovered from Covid-19. This is especially true in regions with low levels of community spread, since the likelihood of illness depends on exposure risk. 
And while you would never know it from listening to public-health officials, not a single published study has demonstrated that patients with a prior infection benefit from Covid-19 vaccination. That this isn’t readily acknowledged by the CDC or Anthony Fauci is an indication of how deeply entangled pandemic politics is in science.
There are, however, signs of life for scientific honesty. In May, the Norwegian Medicines Agency reviewed case files for the first 100 reported deaths of nursing-home residents who received the Pfizer vaccine. The agency concluded that the vaccine “likely” contributed to the deaths of 10 of these residents through side effects such as fever and diarrhea, and “possibly” contributed to the deaths of an additional 26. But this type of honesty is rare. And it is rare for any vaccine to be linked to deaths, so this unusual development for mRNA vaccines merits further investigation. 
The battle to recover scientific honesty will be an uphill one in the U.S. Anti-Trump politics in the spring of 2020 mushroomed into social-media censorship. News reporting often lacked intellectual curiosity about the appropriateness of public-health guidelines—or why a vocal minority of scientists strongly disagreed with prevailing opinions. Scientists have advocated for or against Covid-19 therapies while having financial relationships with product manufacturers and their foundation benefactors.
Public-health authorities are making a mistake and risking the public’s trust by not being forthcoming about the possibility of harm from certain vaccine side effects. There will be lasting consequences from mingling political partisanship and science during the management of a public-health crisis. 
Dr. Ladapo is an associate professor of medicine at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine. Dr. Risch is a professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health.
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zhegufei
Harvey A. Risch 这个家伙又出来了。 这么多合作者中,没有比这个更笨的。 简直了。
CleverBeaver
Harvey A. Risch 这个家伙又出来了。 这么多合作者中,没有比这个更笨的。 简直了。
zhegufei 发表于 2021-06-26 12:32

这位层主很不得了 上次说哈佛mit的whitehead的大牛paper造假结果不可复制 结果人家还是发了
现在又讲yale的教授不靠谱…… hmm
可是你除了力挺nih 追着质疑疫苗效果和副作用的人骂 又做过其他什么呢?有点intellectual curiosity好不好
g
gatobarb
写得很好啊。比如这个例假问题,在版上看到的就挺多的,但是也没见有什么公开说法。这还不算严重的副作用,但是每个碰上的人都挺担心的,不是吗?
fleabane
写得很好啊。比如这个例假问题,在版上看到的就挺多的,但是也没见有什么公开说法。这还不算严重的副作用,但是每个碰上的人都挺担心的,不是吗?
gatobarb 发表于 2021-06-26 12:42

月经不调本来就是常见病,美国经期妇女数量得接近一亿了吧,打不打也有很多人会在接下来的一个月月经不调,总不能啥都赖到疫苗头上,这是疫苗,又不是长生不老药
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scion
粉毛逼咋又来秀英文了,真是记吃不记打 上次闹的笑话还没完,脸皮比河马都厚啊
Melaniejj9991
疫苗有风险,但是新冠就没风险了?面对来势汹汹的delta株,我觉得还是打疫苗好一点
joeblackgod
回复 8楼Melaniejj9991的帖子
我个人认为疫苗风险大概是1和1.5的区别,但是新冠的风险是10-100这个水平。
强制注册不注不行
疫苗有风险,但是新冠就没风险了?面对来势汹汹的delta株,我觉得还是打疫苗好一点
Melaniejj9991 发表于 2021-06-26 13:26

反过来说一样通顺:新冠有风险,那疫苗就没有风险了?面对来势汹汹的疫苗第一第二针,以及天知道第n 加强针,我觉得不打疫苗好一点。
所以都是个人选择,宣传疫苗好的,宣传疫苗不好的,都是基于自己相信的东西,自由讨论,反对光扣帽子的
z
zhegufei
这位层主很不得了 上次说哈佛mit的whitehead的大牛paper造假结果不可复制 结果人家还是发了
现在又讲yale的教授不靠谱…… hmm
可是你除了力挺nih 追着质疑疫苗效果和副作用的人骂 又做过其他什么呢?有点intellectual curiosity好不好
CleverBeaver 发表于 2021-06-26 12:37

那个是杨辉老板。领域的人都知道。
Melaniejj9991
回复 8楼Melaniejj9991的帖子
我个人认为疫苗风险大概是1和1.5的区别,但是新冠的风险是10-100这个水平。
joeblackgod 发表于 2021-06-26 13:28

同意!风险大不相同!反疫苗的基本都是抓住亿万人中的一两个个例拼命强调疫苗风险。
Melaniejj9991
反过来说一样通顺:新冠有风险,那疫苗就没有风险了?面对来势汹汹的疫苗第一第二针,以及天知道第nDE 加强针,我觉得不打疫苗好一点。
所以都是个人选择,宣传疫苗好的,宣传疫苗不好的,都是基于自己相信的东西,自由讨论,反对光扣帽子的
强制注册不注不行 发表于 2021-06-26 13:33

你有不打的自由。不过万一尊驾不幸染疫,也不要去医院浪费公共资源。
parisprovence
你有不打的自由。不过万一尊驾不幸染疫,也不要去医院浪费公共资源。
Melaniejj9991 发表于 2021-06-26 13:45

疫苗教的人争论起来一点逻辑都没有:
你100%已然占用了公用资源去打疫苗,为什么人家0.1%的可能性占用公用资源就医就不行呢?
强制注册不注不行
你有不打的自由。不过万一尊驾不幸染疫,也不要去医院浪费公共资源。
Melaniejj9991 发表于 2021-06-26 13:45

我确实有不打的自由,这是天赋的人权和自由,不是谁恩赐的。
至于医疗资源,按你的逻辑,是不是也可以这么说:你们有打疫苗的自由,不过万一不幸血栓,心肌炎,血小板降低等等,也不要去医院浪费公共资源,自己选的要打这个疫苗,自己承担哈
parisprovence
万一不幸血栓,心肌炎,血小板降低等等,也不要去医院浪费公共资源,自己选的要打这个疫苗,自己承担哈
这不是他们逻辑承认与否的问题,是本来就是这样的。
强制注册不注不行
万一不幸血栓,心肌炎,血小板降低等等,也不要去医院浪费公共资源,自己选的要打这个疫苗,自己承担哈
这不是他们逻辑承认与否的问题,是本来就是这样的。
parisprovence 发表于 2021-06-26 13:55

不是啊,这个自己承担的意思,是指没有医疗救助的自己承担。
那个层主原路的意思是:
既然你自己选的不打疫苗了,那得病就是自找的,就别去浪费医疗资源看病,因为你本来可能不需要得病的。
那么按照这个逻辑,既然你自己选的打疫苗,那副作用就是自找的,就别去浪费医疗资源看病,因为你本来可能不需要有这个副作用的。
Melaniejj9991
我确实有不打的自由,这是天赋的人权和自由,不是谁恩赐的。
至于医疗资源,按你的逻辑,是不是也可以这么说:你们有打疫苗的自由,不过万一不幸血栓,心肌炎,血小板降低等等,也不要去医院浪费公共资源,自己选的要打这个疫苗,自己承担哈

强制注册不注不行 发表于 2021-06-26 13:53

胡搅蛮缠了不是?现阶段看打疫苗是对自己也对他人有益的事情。你非蒙着眼睛昧着良心说疫苗没用我也没办法。既然打疫苗的人是对公共卫生做出了贡献,为什么不能使用公共资源?相反,像你这样的反疫苗者,抱着侥幸的心态,对疫苗的一点点风险也不愿承受。如果染疫又为病毒的传播和变异做出贡献,当然不配使用公共卫生资源啊!
强制注册不注不行
胡搅蛮缠了不是?现阶段看打疫苗是对自己也对他人有益的事情。你非蒙着眼睛昧着良心说疫苗没用我也没办法。既然打疫苗的人是对公共卫生做出了贡献,为什么不能使用公共资源?相反,像你这样的反疫苗者,抱着侥幸的心态,对疫苗的一点点风险也不愿承受。如果染疫又为病毒的传播和变异做出贡献,当然不配使用公共卫生资源啊!

Melaniejj9991 发表于 2021-06-26 13:59

那只是你的视角,不能代表真理,有理不在声高,历史上被证明掌握在少数人手里的真理同样比比皆是。
从另一些视角,还有一些人认为打疫苗是仅对你自己有益的事情(照旧传播),还有一些人认为打疫苗是对他人有害的事情(养蛊),
像你这样的挺疫苗者,抱着侥幸的心态,对疫苗的风险视而不见。不管染不染疫都可能为病毒的传播和变异做出贡献,当然不配使用公共卫生资源啊!