为什么买卖房屋不能像别的商品一样公开透明地竞价呢？我觉得房屋市场最大的bug就是你不知道和你竞争的人的出价和开的条件（contigency啥的），以及accept了offer要一个月以后public才能知道当时卖了多少钱，这种delay的信息往往不一定能代表当下的市场情况。这是agent一味制造和维持的假象，让信息不那么easily accessible to public 来justify这个行业存在的意义，还是真的为了保护啥隐私？
而且为什么不搞second price bidding edit 这边有个tentative的解释 https://ideas.4brad.com/why-arent-homes-sold-second-price-auctions Game theorists generally believe that second price auctions (the Vickrey Auction) are actually the best choice for both buyers and sellers. That when done properly, they bring in the best revenue for the seller but also make the buyer feel comfortable they bid the right number. Second price auctions are the most common in the world, since that''''s what eBay uses -- namely the winner bidder pays the amount of the second highest bid (in eBay''''s case, plus a small increment.) Google also uses them to price adwords. To understand why they can be best for sellers, effectively the choice comes down to taking the #2 bid from a set of higher bids, or the #1 bid from a set of lower bids. The former option tends to be a good choice, and also minimizes buyer remorse at the same time. So my question is, given that they are the best method, why don''''t these homes get sold in second price auctions? The most likely reason is that the public, in spite of eBay, does not understand 2nd price auctions very well. In fact, even on eBay, you see people who bid in advance or get annoyed at "snipers" who bid at the last minute. eBay combines what is actually a 2nd price auction with the appearance of a "going, going, gone" auction, and that confuses people. For a 2nd price auction to work, the bidders must truly understand how to use it, which is to bid their "true heart." That is to say, to bid the maximum price they would really want to pay. The price at which, they are satisfied if they get it for that price, and they are satisfied if they don''''t get it at that price because they truly believe any more was too much. You must pick the price where you are (barely) happy if you win, and barely happy if you lose. It takes some practice to learn how to pick that price. In practice of course, 2nd price auction bidders know they will almost always pay less than they bid, and thus be truly happy. That is what allows them to submit their truly highest bid. The fact that they submit their truly highest bid is what gives the seller the best outcome. You sacrifice the random swings of buyers who overbid for a reliable shot at the best market price. Unfortunately, home buyers and sellers are usually amateurs. They do this once every decade, if that. They otherwise never spend or get this much money. They are likely to make mistakes or be irrational in their bidding.
为什么买卖房屋不能像别的商品一样公开透明地竞价呢？我觉得房屋市场最大的bug就是你不知道和你竞争的人的出价和开的条件，以及accept了offer要一个月以后public才能知道当时卖了多少钱，这种delay的信息往往不一定能代表当下的市场情况。这是agent一味制造和维持的假象，让信息不那么easily accessible to public 来justify这个行业存在的意义，还是真的为了保护啥隐私？ 小塔 发表于 2021-05-27 03:11
为什么买卖房屋不能像别的商品一样公开透明地竞价呢？我觉得房屋市场最大的bug就是你不知道和你竞争的人的出价和开的条件，以及accept了offer要一个月以后public才能知道当时卖了多少钱，这种delay的信息往往不一定能代表当下的市场情况。这是agent一味制造和维持的假象，让信息不那么easily accessible to public 来justify这个行业存在的意义，还是真的为了保护啥隐私？ 小塔 发表于 2021-05-27 03:11
edit
这边有个tentative的解释 https://ideas.4brad.com/why-arent-homes-sold-second-price-auctions
Game theorists generally believe that second price auctions (the Vickrey Auction) are actually the best choice for both buyers and sellers. That when done properly, they bring in the best revenue for the seller but also make the buyer feel comfortable they bid the right number. Second price auctions are the most common in the world, since that''''s what eBay uses -- namely the winner bidder pays the amount of the second highest bid (in eBay''''s case, plus a small increment.) Google also uses them to price adwords.
To understand why they can be best for sellers, effectively the choice comes down to taking the #2 bid from a set of higher bids, or the #1 bid from a set of lower bids. The former option tends to be a good choice, and also minimizes buyer remorse at the same time.
So my question is, given that they are the best method, why don''''t these homes get sold in second price auctions?
The most likely reason is that the public, in spite of eBay, does not understand 2nd price auctions very well. In fact, even on eBay, you see people who bid in advance or get annoyed at "snipers" who bid at the last minute. eBay combines what is actually a 2nd price auction with the appearance of a "going, going, gone" auction, and that confuses people.
For a 2nd price auction to work, the bidders must truly understand how to use it, which is to bid their "true heart." That is to say, to bid the maximum price they would really want to pay. The price at which, they are satisfied if they get it for that price, and they are satisfied if they don''''t get it at that price because they truly believe any more was too much. You must pick the price where you are (barely) happy if you win, and barely happy if you lose. It takes some practice to learn how to pick that price.
In practice of course, 2nd price auction bidders know they will almost always pay less than they bid, and thus be truly happy. That is what allows them to submit their truly highest bid. The fact that they submit their truly highest bid is what gives the seller the best outcome. You sacrifice the random swings of buyers who overbid for a reliable shot at the best market price.
Unfortunately, home buyers and sellers are usually amateurs. They do this once every decade, if that. They otherwise never spend or get this much money. They are likely to make mistakes or be irrational in their bidding.
市场接受一价啊，你搞不起来啊 你自己出价的时候bid shading好了
这个也可以有
经常看到有人 尾数是一刀的
你说的买家的想法 花最少的钱办事 但卖家希望卖高价啊 而且对卖家而言没啥不透明的 他能看到所有的offer呀 bidding war 对卖家也有利 为啥卖家要同意改变游戏规则 损伤自己 帮助买家?
可能觉得盲猜的情况下更容易下猛价
我遇到很多listing agent都只说try your best
等于说是betting on买家在强烈的求胜心下不再有rational thinking
等什么时候银行能秒批贷款再说吧。。不靠谱的买家和卖家都很多
一则 second bidding war不是都有的 很多非热门地区就是一轮 不知道多少钱可以买到 会促使买家overbidding 公开的话 如果排名第二的买家出100块钱 那本来只要101就可以 谁还愿意出102？ 第二 也不是完全不公开啊 记得以前有mm说过 他们州可以告诉最高bid价 是合规的 那个mm没说哪个州 但是知道最高价也够了 愿意加价的就加价 不愿意就不加 但公开第二第三干啥 为了让第一的那个把价钱改低重新递offer吗
楼主你的问题设定就是错的。
房子当然可以公开拍卖。你卖房的时候可以这样做，这是你的权利。
买家都应该出best and final 啊。 如果第三名想要的话，不被counter也可以加钱变成第一名啊。她不加就是不想加啊。 现在的卖方，买家不会少出的。唯一的危险就是出多了。
其实美国说白了还是被中介这个行业裹挟了。如果公开拍卖的话，中介这个传声筒完全用不着了。
瑞典我是我不知道。 美国，很多高端的房子，很多一两个月才能找到一个愿意出价的买家。如何bid?一个人bid吗？ 你觉得公开竞价好，你就别找经纪公开竞价就可以了。
如果只有一个人出价当然没法bid。这个帖子讨论的是很多人竞价的情况啊。 现在大家对房市或中介有任何的问题，一定会有答案说你不喜欢就别用。 问题是在美国我不想找中介也不行啊，因为买家几乎都是中介在出价，我如何把一堆买家中介搞在一起拍卖？在一个市场我当然只能按市场游戏规则玩，但不代表我不能对这个游戏规则提出任何异议吧。那不成了朝鲜一言堂了。
你虽然不能把她们聚在一起。你完全可以告诉所有人别人的出价啊。 你可以说，给你们三天出价。每次有人出价，你就说，现在108万啦，快加价吧。很容易啊
但是我告诉了价钱，这些买家中介也不会陪我一遍遍的玩竞价，因为他们只想速战速决。并且你应该不会不知道透露其他买家出价在很多地方是违反行业规则的。 拍卖的缺点是你亮了底牌，但是优点是没有加价次数限制。所有买家想加多少加多少，想加几次加几次。 我告诉中介别人出价，相当于我亮了自己底牌，但是却没有获得拍卖的优点。
要求买家有rational thinking不是卖家的责任。卖家经济的责任是卖家卖得最高价。并且除非你能游说立法不能take highest bidder，否则没人会有兴趣搞什么second bidding。因为卖家想卖，买家想买，你给买家出难题说，只要出一个你觉得reasonable的价格，让god决定谁拿到房子，你不觉得买家就是想要房宁愿砸钱的option也被deprive了吗？你这个假设是pay fair price是对每个人最optimal的选择，然而事实上并不是。
你是卖家又不是中介。你当然可以告诉别人啦。你说哪里不让卖家告诉别人价格的？ 我不理解啊。你可以让买家无限制反复加价啊。 至于买家不乐意陪你玩，就说明你这样行不通啊，现在的模式对卖家最有利啊。
政策制定lobbyist 中，real estate broker 是很大一块
行不通不是因为理论上行不通，而是因为大家都不这么玩，我放弃了底牌却并不能换来相应的好处，因为买家和他们的中介不习惯这种玩法。所以我前面说了我在一个市场只能妥协按市场游戏规则玩，但并不代表我认同这个游戏规则。
存在也不一定就合理。举个或许不恰当的例子。很多人抱怨美国保险贵，看病贵，但我们不可能不买保险不看病。理论上我也可以不买，然后cash看病，然后大病回国看。但这种玩法在一个市场大环境下就是很难被主流接受。但这里主流一定就对吗？
我没说主流对啊。 我说你觉得怎样好就怎么样，就要不犯法，都可以啊。 比如google 上市也觉得用中介不好要open bidding,他们就试试，挺好的。 别人用中介，大概率不是别人傻而是他们觉得这样更好。
绝对可以啊。尤其是现在的市场。如果买方市场你一个房子要挂好几个月需要你的agent经常来开门或者给人家negotiate我会觉得还是需要，现在你随便list再哪个平台上让人集中看几天还是做的到的。
人家自己的房子愿意怎么卖是人家自己的事吧？那些拍卖的东西，也是卖主愿意那么卖而已啊。
当然可以。
“我如何把一堆买家中介搞在一起拍卖？”
你的问题在于你以为销售是零成本的。索斯比拍卖行的收费是40万以下25%，40-400万收20%
当然，房子没有艺术品水那么深，但任何有信誉和实力的拍卖行拍卖任何东西都不会收的太少。拍卖是非常容易翻车的。
Second price bidding是诺奖级别的方案啊
That makes sense
所以现在media铺天盖地的夸大supply shortage