What assets do best in stagflation? Depending on the severity of stagflation in the economy, the strategy will weigh the allocation appropriately to these five asset classes: Stocks. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) Gold. Treasuries. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
廢除不了的。 Proposition 13 has been described as California's most famous and influential ballot measure;[2] it received enormous publicity throughout the United States.[3] Passage of the initiative presaged a "taxpayer revolt" throughout the country that is sometimes thought to have contributed to the election of Ronald Reagan to the presidency during 1980. Of 30 anti-tax ballot measures that year, 13 passed.[4] A large contributor to Proposition 13 was the sentiment that older Californians should not be priced out of their homes through high taxes.[5] The proposition has been called the "third rail" (meaning "untouchable subject") of California politics, and it is not popular politically for lawmakers to attempt to change it.[6]
Proposition 13 is consistently popular among California's likely voters, 64% of whom were homeowners as of 2017.[68] A 2018 survey from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 57% of Californians say that Proposition 13 is mostly a good thing, while 23% say it is mostly a bad thing. 65% of likely voters say it has been mostly a good thing, as do: 71% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats, and 61% of independents; 54% of people age 18 to 34, 52% of people age 35 to 54, and 66% of people 55 and older; 65% of homeowners and 50% of renters. The only demographic group for which less than 50% said that Proposition 13 was mostly a good thing was African Americans, at 39%.[69] The survey also found that 40% of Californians, and 50% of likely voters said that Proposition 13's supermajority requirement for new special taxes has had a good effect on local government services provided to residents, while 20% of both Californians and likely voters said it had a bad effect, and the remainder felt it had no effect.[69] At the same time, a majority of both Californians (55%) and likely voters (56%) opposed lowering the supermajority threshold for local special taxes.[69]
Third rail Proposition 13 is often considered the "third rail" of California politics, which means that politicians avoid discussions of changing it. In the 2003 California recall election in which Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor, his advisor Warren Buffett suggested that Proposition 13 be repealed or changed as a method of balancing the state's budget.[70] Schwarzenegger, believing that such an act would be inadvisable politically and could end his gubernatorial career, said, "I told Warren that if he mentions Proposition 13 again he has to do 500 sit-ups."[71]Gavin Newsom, when asked about the fairness of Proposition 13 in a 2010 interview with The Bay Citizen, said: "The political realities are such that Democrats, not just Republicans and Independents, are overwhelmingly opposed to making adjustments in terms of the residential side of Prop. 13. On the commercial and industrial side, there seems to be a lot more openness to debate...Of course, it's a difficult time to do that...when you're trying to encourage manufacturing back into your state, and you already have a cost differential between states that border us, you don't want to now increase their burden in terms of property tax on that commercial and industrial space."[72] In 2011, California GovernorJerry Brown was quoted as saying that it wasn't Proposition 13 that was the problem, but "It was what the Legislature did after 13, it was what happened after 13 was passed" because the legislature reduced local authorities' power.[73] In a later interview in 2014, he lamented that he hadn't built up a "war chest" with which to campaign for an alternative to Proposition 13. Governor Brown said he'd learned from his failure in the mid-1970s to build a war chest that he could have used to push an alternative to Proposition 13. Governor Brown was definitive that he would not seek to change the law, a third rail in California politics. "Prop. 13 is a sacred doctrine that should never be questioned," he said.[6]
这就是经济里面最痛苦的 stagflation 停滞行通货膨胀 中文简称滞涨
上一次发生是1970年代 越战 冷战 让政府欠下太多债务 当时的方法是废除金本位 放任美元大幅贬值 物价房价一夜之间飞涨 当时美国采取的措施的跟中国建交 开始外包生产 中国廉价劳力大幅降低了普通百姓滞涨的痛苦 代价是绣带蓝领阶层彻底从中产下降到底层
但是财富差距仍然大幅拉开 富人财富迅速积累
滞涨下 没有什么资产的 会很快下降一个阶层 现在人们疯狂抢房 是因为如果不抢 以后再也不可能住上之前可以住的房子和生活水平了
这次债务危机，实际上酝酿已久 跟新冠没有太大关系 几年前经济学家 就指出解决美国债务 只能靠滞涨 很多中产这波会被牺牲掉. 新冠让政府看到了实行这个滞涨计划消除债务的最高机会。
普通老百姓如何应对？
物价更是不可能的。以后要是面包都长到了1000刀一块，工资不变，人都去饿死吗？参见国内的猪肉价格。一旦二师兄的肉比师父的肉都贵了，人就去乌泱乌泱拥去养猪，然后猪肉价格又跌的妈都不认识了。
房产税率可以下降到0.2%
看着有点可怕
我第一反应是货币贬值，然后就是高科技外包给中国印度。
不过美国还是要找到像高科技一样的东西去赚附加值，否则拿什么给外包工人发工资呢？
看看汇率就知道美国印的比较多一些
涨到500万不行，但是涨到百，八十万的应该不难。
说白了政府搞货币贬值（通胀也好，滞涨也罢），都是变相给公民加税。社会问题出现了各种问题要解决，需要钱，哪里来？外面的韭菜不够割，割起来也越来越费劲了，那么就只能多割自家公民的啦。
加州有prop13。不存在交不起稅。
这个肯定会被逐步废除的。看看去年通过的法案，子女只能继承一套房产（keep tax basis），其他房产自动升到market value纳税。商业prop13先被取消掉，然后过度到residential。这里很多税钱，纽森是不会放过你们的。
最大问题是底层涨最低工资，顶层涨，中产不涨，而等着掏钱的支付大笔高额税的的是中产
美国印了三万亿。中国印了二十万亿。 半斤八两吧
我邻居老太太的房子卖了130几万，是40多年前7万2买的；按照这个比例，现在50万，未来能涨到1000万
廢除不了的。
Proposition 13 has been described as California's most famous and influential ballot measure;[2] it received enormous publicity throughout the United States.[3] Passage of the initiative presaged a "taxpayer revolt" throughout the country that is sometimes thought to have contributed to the election of Ronald Reagan to the presidency during 1980. Of 30 anti-tax ballot measures that year, 13 passed.[4]
A large contributor to Proposition 13 was the sentiment that older Californians should not be priced out of their homes through high taxes.[5] The proposition has been called the "third rail" (meaning "untouchable subject") of California politics, and it is not popular politically for lawmakers to attempt to change it.[6]
Proposition 13 is consistently popular among California's likely voters, 64% of whom were homeowners as of 2017.[68] A 2018 survey from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 57% of Californians say that Proposition 13 is mostly a good thing, while 23% say it is mostly a bad thing. 65% of likely voters say it has been mostly a good thing, as do: 71% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats, and 61% of independents; 54% of people age 18 to 34, 52% of people age 35 to 54, and 66% of people 55 and older; 65% of homeowners and 50% of renters. The only demographic group for which less than 50% said that Proposition 13 was mostly a good thing was African Americans, at 39%.[69]
The survey also found that 40% of Californians, and 50% of likely voters said that Proposition 13's supermajority requirement for new special taxes has had a good effect on local government services provided to residents, while 20% of both Californians and likely voters said it had a bad effect, and the remainder felt it had no effect.[69]
At the same time, a majority of both Californians (55%) and likely voters (56%) opposed lowering the supermajority threshold for local special taxes.[69]
Third rail Proposition 13 is often considered the "third rail" of California politics, which means that politicians avoid discussions of changing it.
In the 2003 California recall election in which Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor, his advisor Warren Buffett suggested that Proposition 13 be repealed or changed as a method of balancing the state's budget.[70] Schwarzenegger, believing that such an act would be inadvisable politically and could end his gubernatorial career, said, "I told Warren that if he mentions Proposition 13 again he has to do 500 sit-ups."[71] Gavin Newsom, when asked about the fairness of Proposition 13 in a 2010 interview with The Bay Citizen, said: "The political realities are such that Democrats, not just Republicans and Independents, are overwhelmingly opposed to making adjustments in terms of the residential side of Prop. 13. On the commercial and industrial side, there seems to be a lot more openness to debate...Of course, it's a difficult time to do that...when you're trying to encourage manufacturing back into your state, and you already have a cost differential between states that border us, you don't want to now increase their burden in terms of property tax on that commercial and industrial space."[72]
In 2011, California Governor Jerry Brown was quoted as saying that it wasn't Proposition 13 that was the problem, but "It was what the Legislature did after 13, it was what happened after 13 was passed" because the legislature reduced local authorities' power.[73] In a later interview in 2014, he lamented that he hadn't built up a "war chest" with which to campaign for an alternative to Proposition 13. Governor Brown said he'd learned from his failure in the mid-1970s to build a war chest that he could have used to push an alternative to Proposition 13. Governor Brown was definitive that he would not seek to change the law, a third rail in California politics. "Prop. 13 is a sacred doctrine that should never be questioned," he said.[6]
你别傻了，Jerry Brown都10年前的州长了，还拿旧新闻出来洗地
Jerry Brown 2019 剛卸任。。。。。。。。就上一任州長。。。。。。。
前提是人口增长率也像以前那么高，那是不可能的
哪有这么夸张......
地不是自己的 没法重建 只能越来越破 恶性通胀下 hoa越来越贵 是个消费品 抗通胀作用非常有限 甚至可能沦为负资产
停滞性通胀 如果发展成恶性 比如现在的趋势 在一人一票的政治体制下 穷人政府肯定会想办法接济 顶级的富人 政府肯定也不会收他们重稅 一般通过的税法会给他们留好后门 因为政府毕竟是被顶级富豪控制的
恶性通胀其实就是变相对上中产收税 是一种最恶劣的税收方式 因为都是暗地的 不平等地的税收 稍微投资慢了 基本只能下降阶层 成为底层的一部分
这不是天天发san Diego房子涨疯了那个楼主嘛
贩卖焦虑还是你最拿手 一套房子就定阶层，呵呵呵，哈哈哈
忠言逆耳 毒鸡汤我也会： 其实现在房价上涨是供需失衡 等过段时间房源多了就好了 可以等等早晚会降下来的 现在抢房的等着站岗吧
一堆人只会骂我 说我是agent 却不用脑子想想 通货膨胀下商品价格怎么可能回落？
我说买房才能不下降阶级 并不是说房价会如何涨 并不是说有房子如何了不起 高大上 而是说买房 尤其要保值的sfh 这是普通人可以拿到大额贷款的唯一方式 大额贷款在通货膨胀下等于把资产据为己有 这样才能脱离死工资 抵消滞涨下的隐形税收 这次政府主导的滞涨 就是铁了心要剪w2中产的羊毛
著名的4万亿了解一下，你以为中国房产是怎么涨上来的？4万亿起的头
对支持猪党的华左们估计影响不大
这是肯定的
那有多余的钱不还房贷拿来干啥？