Shiyu, or Lion Islet, one of Taiwan's offshore islands, with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background. Carl Court/Getty Images
US defense officials are increasingly warning of the potential for conflict with China over Taiwan.There is almost no way in which the US could intervene in that conflict without devastating losses.Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army. Many of America's leading military and political figures have issued increasingly alarmist warnings in recent days about the potential for conflict with China, especially related to issues surrounding Taiwan. But before the US gets into a crisis that brings it to the threshold of war — or finds itself stumbling into one — policymakers and military leaders need to address some hard realities. There is almost no scenario in which the United States can successfully intervene in a war between China and Taiwan that will not leave our country in far worse shape than it is right now; in a worst-case scenario, American territory could be struck by nuclear missiles. In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, Adm. Phil Davidson, commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, warned that Chinese military developments looked to him like a nation planning for a war. Davidson added that he believed China would attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan "in the next six years." To guard against this possibility, Davidson asked Congress to provide a whopping $27 billion in additional funding over the current defense budget. Sailors at the helm of guided-missile destroyer USS Russell as it transits the Taiwan Strait in June. US Navy/MCS3 Sean Lynch One of the featured programs for this increase is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. Last year Congress allocated $2.1 billion for the initiative. This year Davidson is asking for more than double that amount, to $4.6 billion. The PDI's main objectives will be to increase the number of ground-based cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles in areas closer to Chinese territory. That effort is already well underway. In October the US Marine Corps completed construction on its first new permanent base in the Indo-Pacific area since 1952. The Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force have additional plans to establish new bases or expand existing ones at Tinian Island, Palau, Guam, and Australia — all along the so-called "first island chain" near China's coastline. The expansion is designed to enhance US' ability to conduct "island-hopping" operations and create the ability to rapidly construct military airfields in austere environments. The reason for this expansion, Davidson said, was to reduce or eliminate the time necessary for American military forces to engage Chinese targets. F-15Es and a B-2 bomber over Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. US Air Force The admiral said that right now it would take US forces on the West Coast more than three weeks to get within range of China and troops from Alaska 17 days. But the "perfect speed," Davidson concluded, was "being there." Almost entirely absent from the hearing was any explanation of what's driving the United States to elevate the risk of war by increasing the number of troops near the Chinese coast. As a freedom-loving democracy, the United States is a strong advocate for the independence and freedom of any people, including those in Taiwan. But to that laudable belief must be added a willingness to assess the world in a realistic way. Right now, both the United States and China are in a spiral in which one side expands its capabilities for war, citing rising threats from the other — which each then offers as justification for yet more military spending and preparation for war. China is building infrastructure to project its power westward to the first island chain at the same time US forces are moving infrastructure eastward toward the first island chain and Chinese coast. Every day increases the chance of an accident or miscalculation leading to war. Taiwanese soldiers during the live-fire Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates a Chinese invasion, in May 2019. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu Both the United States and China say they don't want war, but both sides are accelerating and expanding their preparation for war. If the United States were to one day fight China for anything other than an unprovoked attack, we would be choosing a course which would — in the best-case scenario — cause extraordinary harm to our military and markedly degrade our national security; in the worst-case, we could lose a war, putting at risk our very freedom. It is crucial to understand that for China, the Taiwan issue is not merely a core interest, but an emotionally charged one. They are far more willing to pay extraordinary costs, sacrifice many men, and could risk it all to eventually compel unification with Taiwan. The issue does not directly affect our national security unless we get involved. If we eventually choose war with China over Taiwan, we will at best suffer egregious losses in ships, aircraft, and troops; in a worst-case, the war could deteriorate into a nuclear exchange in which American cities are turned into nuclear wastelands, killing millions. America should never take such risks unless our security and freedom are directly threatened. Fighting China for any reason short of that would be a foolish gamble of the highest order. Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of "The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America." Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
“It is crucial to understand that for China, the Taiwan issue is not merely a core interest, but an emotionally charged one. They are far more willing to pay extraordinary costs, sacrifice many men, and could risk it all to eventually compel unification with Taiwan. The issue does not directly affect our national security unless we get involved. If we eventually choose war with China over Taiwan, we will at best suffer egregious losses in ships, aircraft, and troops; in a worst-case, the war could deteriorate into a nuclear exchange in which American cities are turned into nuclear wastelands, killing millions. America should never take such risks unless our security and freedom are directly threatened. Fighting China for any reason short of that would be a foolish gamble of the highest order.” 两军相遇勇者胜,除非完全不是一个数量级的武力,一方能一上来就把另一方打趴下。中国是一党制的高度中央集权国家,而美国是两党制,如果战争drag on的话,美军伤亡大,又不是自身利益直接相关,国内民意是不是拉后腿就不好说了。这次疫情还事关美国人自身性命呢,两边还吵得不亦乐乎。到时会不会为了台湾不计代价坚持打下去可真难说。
🔥 最新回帖
拿香港跟台灣比,香港已經是被中國統治了,台灣不是,沒那麼容易,
中國人愛移民,高官富人都這樣,自己都不想給shithole統治,倒是有把屎倒別人身上這種美其名的統一夢
别自作多情了,说得好像美国没有抛弃过盟友和战略伙伴似的。台湾70年代都被抛弃过一次了,还痴心不改,以为自己是跟别人不一样的唯一例外呢!
武器买的都是要被淘汰的,先进的武器连队都排不上,所谓总统见个部长就哆哆嗦嗦中英文都不会说了,连疫苗都买不着,啥时候就成美国最亲近的“国家”了,美国知道这事么
中国像印度一样,华人上的精英估计就不这么反华了。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
美军近期在南海动作频频,罗斯福号航母打击群周末再度进入南海,也是今年第三次南海巡航。
罗斯福号近期在印度洋东部现身,随后经马六甲海峡进入南海。除了罗斯福号,还有“神盾驱逐舰”以及“神盾巡洋舰”一同前往南海。专家分析认为,美军航母在南海的巡航规律性越来越低,有明显实战部署的意味。除了南海美军也剑指东海,美国一艘神盾驱逐舰马斯廷号,也从日本横须贺基地出发,上周末更出现在长江口附近海域,明显在对中国施压。
记者洪哲政/台北报导 2021-04-05 09:48
台海情势对峙今天再度升高,台国防部公布中共解放军活动动态,十架快慢机种组合而成的共机编队,今天再度侵入台西南防空识别区,其中一架运-8反潜机穿越巴士海峡,抵达台东岸外海空域。
台美上月26日签署海巡合作备忘录,高达20架次共机随即大举出动;美驻帛琉大使来台,国防部29日公布合计10架次中共解放军多机种、多批次的快、慢速军机组合,侵入台西南防空识别区,其中一架运八反潜机,穿出巴士海峡上空,抵达台东部空域。今天共机航迹和上月29日类同。
台国防部今天公布资讯显示,共军包括一架次运-8反潜机、一架空警-500预警机、歼-16战机 歼-10战机各四架次,分批侵入台西南防空识别区,空军派遣空中巡逻兵力应对、广播驱离、防空飞弹追监。
路透巴黎4月3日 - 法国与德国外交部发表联合声明,要求各方保持克制,并立即降低乌克兰东部紧张局势。目前在乌克兰与俄罗斯军队在边境对峙。 法国和德国外交部发言人在声明中说:“法国和德国对于违反停火事件增加感到关切。” “我们正在密切关注局势,特别是俄罗斯军队的行动,我们呼吁各方保持克制,并立即让紧张局势降级。”(完)
天下大事,由不得草民啊
喔 聯合報
最近台海可能真不太平,日本刚和美国签署协守台湾的协议。解放军现在动作一天比一天猛。
哈哈.
你觉得真打起来,美国真会管吗?
香港去年怎么样?美国说了半天,什么也不做,还不是让土工得手了?
圆首的意思是,
你觉得他太胖么?
说明他是个稳重的人。
好吧, 头重, 底盘更重
会管的,所以元首会爱好和平,用宝贵的生命保护好幽州城。
哈哈哈哈哈
给幻想美国介入台海的湾湾补个课:96的时候,你们派人去华盛顿国防部谈话,美国人当时只问你们有没有办法不要擦枪走火。当问到会不会出兵帮忙的时候,美方未做任何表态一一当时湾湾里的明白人就知道是怎么回事了 96年军事力量是怎么回事呢?台湾的飞机能把解放军的J8(飞机型号,不是那个)干的裤子都掉下来,解放军还得把火炮坦克放船上对着对岸轰,就是这么搞笑的战斗力。即便如此,美方也懒得插手
台湾香港不是一回事。 大陆本身在香港驻军,享有实际主权;香港政府本身是民选政府,又不是大陆直接去香港镇压。所以美国只能制裁香港官员和全国人大。如果港府领导人民反抗中央政府,中央政府军队镇压,你看看会怎么办。
【环球网报道 记者 边子豪】访美在即,日本首相菅义伟又对台湾问题多起了嘴。据美国广播公司(ABC)报道,菅义伟4日称,台湾的和平与稳定是该地区的关键,日本将与美国合作,缓和大陆和台湾之间不断升级的紧张局势。
据报道,菅义伟将于本月访问华盛顿,这将是拜登上任后二人首次会面,而台海问题预计会被列入议程。“对日本和美国来说,共同合作并使用威慑力量来制造一个环境,让台湾和大陆可以找到一个和平的解决方式,这很重要。”菅义伟4日在一档电视节目中这样说道。 报道介绍道,菅义伟还希望推动“自由开放的印太”,并与拜登讨论疫情、气候变化等话题。 此前有日媒报道称,日美双方正在讨论,把“有关台湾的段落”列入会谈结束后的联合声明中。报道说,这样一份涉及台湾的声明将会是美日领导人对有关“关切”的一次“罕见的公开表达”,而上一次日美声明提及台湾还是在1969年。但该媒体没有明确说明,此消息从何处了解到。 关于台湾问题,国台办发言人朱凤莲曾表示,台湾问题是中国的内政,不容任何外来干涉。我们的对台方针政策是一贯的、明确的,我们将坚持一个中国原则和“九二共识”,推进两岸关系和平发展和祖国统一,坚决遏制“台独”分裂活动。 据日本多家媒体2日报道,原定于4月9日在华盛顿举行的日美首脑会谈将延期一周至16日。双方正在对日程进行最后协调。
土共有啥近海优势,一旦开战富庶之地东部沿海全部暴露在对方海空打击之下
96年能一样吗?那是中国还是小土豆,现在是美国处心积虑要打倒的第一号敌人,美国缺一个理由鼓舞民众士气而已
是啊,以前说美国怕死人。结果现在一看美国死60万都不带眨眼的。伊拉克战争美军死4500人,台海怎么也更重要,美军budget死20000人,共军敢不敢接?搞不好共军的海空军打光了也达不到这条线。
願 刁 多珍重
我這 體重這 年紀都沒把握能活到 2035了
上次 刁 發四顆東風
掉了兩顆在自家領地
刁 現在該怕的是
發了核彈出去 被干擾 掉到了自家領地 那政權是得丟了
实力演示了什么是井底之蛙 😂
美军真是吃饱了撑的把一堆人拉到台海去送 我说你们平时不关心军事什么的就别瞎发言了好吗。。。 解放军和美军,拉开阵势,公海一对一,美军能把解放军打出渣子来,TG上5条航母都玩不过美军的1条,还是被花式吊打 近海作战,台海领域,两边就是能互相掰掰手腕 至于对台湾,两边的差距就像美军和解放军在公海的差距一样大
呵呵 789大妈这种烂逻辑真是永远用不烦 要比死的人多少 那你比下911啊 也就几千人 但对全世界产生了怎样的影响? 也就台湾认为自己重要 果然是井蛙台巴 千万不要低估TG收复台湾的决心 而且中国现在舆情已经普遍转向武统 我看TG真的敢 惨的是普通人
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-war-with-china-over-taiwan-would-be-foolish-costly-2021-3
US officials who are ready to fight China over Taiwan don't understand how much is at stake Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, ret, Defense Priorities Mar 18, 2021, 9:16 AM
Shiyu, or Lion Islet, one of Taiwan's offshore islands, with the Chinese city of Xiamen in the background. Carl Court/Getty Images
US defense officials are increasingly warning of the potential for conflict with China over Taiwan. There is almost no way in which the US could intervene in that conflict without devastating losses. Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army.
Many of America's leading military and political figures have issued increasingly alarmist warnings in recent days about the potential for conflict with China, especially related to issues surrounding Taiwan. But before the US gets into a crisis that brings it to the threshold of war — or finds itself stumbling into one — policymakers and military leaders need to address some hard realities. There is almost no scenario in which the United States can successfully intervene in a war between China and Taiwan that will not leave our country in far worse shape than it is right now; in a worst-case scenario, American territory could be struck by nuclear missiles. In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, Adm. Phil Davidson, commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, warned that Chinese military developments looked to him like a nation planning for a war. Davidson added that he believed China would attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan "in the next six years." To guard against this possibility, Davidson asked Congress to provide a whopping $27 billion in additional funding over the current defense budget. Sailors at the helm of guided-missile destroyer USS Russell as it transits the Taiwan Strait in June. US Navy/MCS3 Sean Lynch One of the featured programs for this increase is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. Last year Congress allocated $2.1 billion for the initiative. This year Davidson is asking for more than double that amount, to $4.6 billion. The PDI's main objectives will be to increase the number of ground-based cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles in areas closer to Chinese territory. That effort is already well underway. In October the US Marine Corps completed construction on its first new permanent base in the Indo-Pacific area since 1952. The Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force have additional plans to establish new bases or expand existing ones at Tinian Island, Palau, Guam, and Australia — all along the so-called "first island chain" near China's coastline. The expansion is designed to enhance US' ability to conduct "island-hopping" operations and create the ability to rapidly construct military airfields in austere environments. The reason for this expansion, Davidson said, was to reduce or eliminate the time necessary for American military forces to engage Chinese targets. F-15Es and a B-2 bomber over Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. US Air Force The admiral said that right now it would take US forces on the West Coast more than three weeks to get within range of China and troops from Alaska 17 days. But the "perfect speed," Davidson concluded, was "being there." Almost entirely absent from the hearing was any explanation of what's driving the United States to elevate the risk of war by increasing the number of troops near the Chinese coast. As a freedom-loving democracy, the United States is a strong advocate for the independence and freedom of any people, including those in Taiwan. But to that laudable belief must be added a willingness to assess the world in a realistic way. Right now, both the United States and China are in a spiral in which one side expands its capabilities for war, citing rising threats from the other — which each then offers as justification for yet more military spending and preparation for war. China is building infrastructure to project its power westward to the first island chain at the same time US forces are moving infrastructure eastward toward the first island chain and Chinese coast. Every day increases the chance of an accident or miscalculation leading to war. Taiwanese soldiers during the live-fire Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates a Chinese invasion, in May 2019. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu Both the United States and China say they don't want war, but both sides are accelerating and expanding their preparation for war. If the United States were to one day fight China for anything other than an unprovoked attack, we would be choosing a course which would — in the best-case scenario — cause extraordinary harm to our military and markedly degrade our national security; in the worst-case, we could lose a war, putting at risk our very freedom. It is crucial to understand that for China, the Taiwan issue is not merely a core interest, but an emotionally charged one. They are far more willing to pay extraordinary costs, sacrifice many men, and could risk it all to eventually compel unification with Taiwan. The issue does not directly affect our national security unless we get involved. If we eventually choose war with China over Taiwan, we will at best suffer egregious losses in ships, aircraft, and troops; in a worst-case, the war could deteriorate into a nuclear exchange in which American cities are turned into nuclear wastelands, killing millions. America should never take such risks unless our security and freedom are directly threatened. Fighting China for any reason short of that would be a foolish gamble of the highest order. Daniel L. Davis is a senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of "The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America." Follow him @DanielLDavis1.
拿911当例子可以啊,美国死几千人,把对手打出翔。。。。
这一群黑中军盲 连航母战斗机什么水平和陆地空军战斗机什么水平都分不清
文盲吧?中美对打,美军根本不会开到海峡,只需要在岛东海域,用导弹飞机击落击沉试图渡海的共军即可。共军想要反击又必须跨过台湾岛的雷达阵,呵呵。
真希望是这样子的。我们老百姓真是怕打仗的。
肯定是中美热战啊。如果确认美国不参战,中国N年前就会动手。现在美国更有理由参战了。
是啊,天下大势,分久必合,合久必分,打来打去死一堆人,几十年几百年后又回到原点。 你看看什么伊拉克,叙利亚,阿富汗打完又分,分完再打,没完没了
这么喜欢打要不要你自己上战场啊?坐在电脑前面有啥用
好战分子,要打仗你和你家人先冲头阵如何?
开个玩笑:也可以先从大陆开始修到海峡中线,这样就可以多6年准备时间。
我觉得不一定。 美国打富的流油的伊拉克都能亏的掉裤子。为了美国的利益,最好少参乎这些事。 乘着中国打仗和被封锁,好好把自己重新发展好才是正事。 能置身事外的时候,就把自己拖进一场可能毁灭地球级别的核战争不是好事情。
没有美国“搅合世界上其他国家",世界还不定乱成啥样了呢
为啥你觉得美军都到台东了,台湾的雷达阵还能用啊?
美军到台湾需要2周时间,你觉得台湾能剩下啥?
别军盲跟我说美军开过去只要2天,
太平洋司令部没有那么傻逼,要打仗,这个级别的冲突后勤战备大量物资在夏威夷这一线, 调兵打大战是一波进场的 你航母倒是可以2天开到,不集结优势兵力打架,你开去送吗?
世界乱就乱呗。干啥要去管?管了之后有啥好处?
台海战争中国武力虽然比不上美国,但有两个巨大优势,一个是家门口作战,另一个是民意。美国人为了台湾,哪会像中国人一样舍生忘死,不惜一切代价?
台湾忘了当初怎么被扔出联合国,被断交的。大国博弈,随时准备做弃子。一有风吹草动跟着瞎乐呵就是纯傻,普通百姓应该期待平安的日子。
还看到一个说美军在台东射射导弹就行了。。。 这尼玛,我都不知道该从哪吐槽起了
世界的稳定对各国经济发展都是有好处的,没有稳定的国际环境美国的东西卖给谁去,天天就卖军火?
美军是需要集结2周以上,可能还不够。 但共军也是一样需要时间的,装备人员一动,对方就知道了。
美国不插手,台湾还是个问题吗? 不过现在局势真的挺紧张的,中美俄最近分别各自莫名其妙一颗卫星炸了,虽然美国的那颗是已经爆废的,有传言就说大家都在研究太空武器,打击对方卫星,以便战争中切断对方信息传送和武器制导,我觉的有点道理。 现在我觉得日本是最想台海开战的了,如果中美打一仗,两败俱伤,日本就可以从中渔利,完全摆脱美国的控制。
有人能给科谱一下乌克兰的情况吗,这个地方简直就是火药筒。
没有美国搅和其他国家,其他国家的国民能比现在安居乐业的多。看看被美国什么民主颜色革命折腾的国家地区现在都什么鬼德行。
没错。那些希望看世界第一和第二的两个国家打的不可开交,百姓生灵涂炭,不知道安的什么心
都别说现在了,50年代金门炮战,大炮一响,美国人跑得比谁都快。。。当时美国和台湾可还是有军事协议的。。。 当时的美国人都不愿替台湾卖命。。。 70年代为了拉拢大陆对抗苏联就能顺手把台湾卖了。。。
要脑子多进水才会想想现在的美国会愿意替台湾死人?
明白这个最好。美国当年利用中国搞垮苏联,现在利用台湾搞垮中国。一样的路数。
美国人可不想为亚洲人赴死,跟核大国动手就为了台湾?只不过中共对台湾暂时也没兴趣,大家保持个表面体面,该做生意还要做生意。发展才是硬道理。
还真觉得美国是世界警察维护世界和平?搞笑呢。自封世界警察,在世界上折腾来折腾去,美国自己国家的问题先解决一下不好吗?
优势也是劣势。正因为家门口,打起来摔了的瓶瓶罐罐都是自家的。美国放几个导弹跑了没啥损失。中国就算赢了,赢个打烂了的岛和国际封锁禁运,有啥好处?除了加强了tg的领导地位,对中国人民有啥好处?
都是脑残觉得战争打响他自己可以独善其身的
别扯了行不行,没边了。。。。
中美打仗,说美国赢我相信。 说美国能轻易的赢我不相信。打个伊拉克最后都能亏掉几万亿美元,死几千美国士兵。 和中国打,这个数字至少不知道要乘以几十倍。 反正我不希望美国为了台湾把自己赌上。
不用担心,美国人不傻,台湾连石油都没有。
你也说了各国经济都有好处。那各国去管啊。 凭什么光美国管?美国花了几万亿推翻了萨达姆,死了几千美国士兵还有更多的残疾士兵,除了得到骂名还得到啥了?
如果没有中国,台湾在美国眼里就是个p
为了控制政权啊,你以为是什么,这么大的独裁国家哪那么容易控制。跟台湾完全没关系。我觉得台湾人有严重的被害妄想症。
中国愿意为台湾拼命,美国愿意么?肯定不愿意。。。
就像当初美国为了家门口的古巴不惜打核战,而苏联明显没这意愿。。。
所以这还有啥好说的。。。。
是打出翔了 然而自己呢 深陷中东泥潭 而且大妈 我驳斥的你的逻辑是 你拿不同事件的不同死亡人数来做比较根本没有可比性……………………
台湾能用爱发电,石油算个屁
我也担心这个 殃及美国亚裔……………………
美国肯定不会为台湾打仗啊,为的是美国自己。 美国二战是为了中国打日本吗?不是。 美国韩战是为了南韩打中朝吗?不是。
那美国就躲在家里不参战?更不是。美国善于抓住对手软肋迎头一击。台湾就是中共软肋。
让你拼命你肯定不肯,做督战队都未必敢,躲在屏幕后面做键盘侠嘴炮让中国人去拼命,你和中国有仇?
不会打了,真是两个核大国激战,我们需要担心的早就不是hate crime了。美国人更清楚。
这个必须屏蔽了,完全没文化胡说啊,看着难受。
伪命题。如果中国愿意为台湾拼命,1950年就拼了。
现在不管是网上还是现实中,不管是老百姓还是政府,嘴炮已经成为了刚需,要每天消费日子才能过下去
其实本来是可以不推翻的,伊拉克都打扒下了,连生化武器的渣都没找到,留着萨达姆让他乖乖听话比彻底推翻他要明智多了,但是怎么办呢,小布实要连任,抓住他才能反败为胜并稳赢。
两军相遇勇者胜,除非完全不是一个数量级的武力,一方能一上来就把另一方打趴下。中国是一党制的高度中央集权国家,而美国是两党制,如果战争drag on的话,美军伤亡大,又不是自身利益直接相关,国内民意是不是拉后腿就不好说了。这次疫情还事关美国人自身性命呢,两边还吵得不亦乐乎。到时会不会为了台湾不计代价坚持打下去可真难说。
绝对的,那些Asian Hate分子可以名正言顺的去亚裔家里抄家。亚裔出门一天不被打,回到家都要烧高香
我不敢说我支持川普的国际政策呀。会被大妈们骂的满头包的。
台湾问题从来都是中美问题啊……
我认识的国内人,在台湾问题上,没有一个认为台湾问题只是利益权衡,而是性命攸关。如果台湾独立,别说国内的人了,连我这个移民美国多年的人,都会捐款支持土共。我有很多台湾朋友,都是早年移民过来的所谓外省人。他们比我这个大陆出来的,更激烈反对台湾独立。