bond和利率credit同时相关。先不说credit，假设你买的是investment grade medium term bond etf，一般duration都是5-10年。利率每上升1%，你亏5%-10%。预计这轮最后10年利率会升到2%。还有50bps，所以你大约会再亏3%-5%。也不算太多。另外一般好些的etf会manage调一下久期，另外投资bond可以吃一些roll down，就是一些curve rolling上的便宜，一年也就1%-2%左右吧。所以即使不折腾，你到年底会发现再亏2%-3%的样子吧。不用太担心。如果你买的non investment grade或者long term的，可能值得折腾一下。
why is that？ how many years of low rate did we have? interest rate is just starting to go up from what I can see. remember if rate goes up 1%, bond with duration of N years will see the price drop by N% as @momosun mentioned above.
Stocks way better than bonds historically. If you are young and can afford to go through some ups and downs, stocks will likely give you a better return over time.
10% bonds and 90% equities are less volatile than 100% equities but provided very similar performaces as 100% equity portfolios. Then there is timing... you don''t want to be 100% equities when you are 60 years old.
your divident is only 2% annually and then price of your bond drops by 5% (interest rate risk)... so yeah it does sting. But of course if you hold them to maturity then you have nothing to worry about unless the bond defaults (credit risk). Watch your durations of your bond funds/etfs as that determines your loss when the rate goes up.
10% bonds and 90% equities are less volatile than 100% equities but provided very similar performaces as 100% equity portfolios. Then there is timing... you don''t want to be 100% equities when you are 60 years old. yolandos 发表于 2021-02-26 11:00
bond倒是不少，发现最近利率上涨之后开跌也很厉害。请教jms，利率上涨和bond价格关系到底怎么理顺，以及bond走势怎么预测。谢谢！
走势就主观了，看其他人的分析吧
什么是PV?
present value
bond和利率credit同时相关。先不说credit，假设你买的是investment grade medium term bond etf，一般duration都是5-10年。利率每上升1%，你亏5%-10%。预计这轮最后10年利率会升到2%。还有50bps，所以你大约会再亏3%-5%。也不算太多。另外一般好些的etf会manage调一下久期，另外投资bond可以吃一些roll down，就是一些curve rolling上的便宜，一年也就1%-2%左右吧。所以即使不折腾，你到年底会发现再亏2%-3%的样子吧。不用太担心。如果你买的non investment grade或者long term的，可能值得折腾一下。
可以买进TMF。
why is that？ how many years of low rate did we have? interest rate is just starting to go up from what I can see. remember if rate goes up 1%, bond with duration of N years will see the price drop by N% as @momosun mentioned above.
Stocks way better than bonds historically. If you are young and can afford to go through some ups and downs, stocks will likely give you a better return over time.
10% bonds and 90% equities are less volatile than 100% equities but provided very similar performaces as 100% equity portfolios. Then there is timing... you don''t want to be 100% equities when you are 60 years old.
your divident is only 2% annually and then price of your bond drops by 5% (interest rate risk)... so yeah it does sting. But of course if you hold them to maturity then you have nothing to worry about unless the bond defaults (credit risk). Watch your durations of your bond funds/etfs as that determines your loss when the rate goes up.
大多数人不在60s，还有几十年退休呢