大家怎么看,GameStop 这是要跌回原形吗?

vincentilia
楼主 (北美华人网)
GameStop Corp. capped another day of heavy losses, pushing its collapse past 80% this week as retail traders flocked to other corners of the stock market such as small drug developers.
The video-game retailer tumbled 42% on Thursday to $53.50, erasing nearly $30 billion in market value. Trading volume picked up after a slow start, with 60 million shares exchanged after selling accelerated throughout the session. The losses continued in after-hours trading, with the stock down 5.5% at 5:22 p.m. New York time.
wyest
blind上这个回帖写得挺好 Uber  xmHm08 To be fair, very few were prepared for RH and other brokers to immediately halt trades for GME.
As someone who got in pretty early into the trade at ~$16, it was a shock. Can't even imagine the stress it had on people who got in later on.
To put it into perspective, when I got into the trade my expectation was for GME to organically grow to ~$30, with or without squeeze, and $60~$90 with a short squeeze.
It certainly spiraled out of control pretty quick and most people were simply not experienced enough to navigate such an environment.
That said, here are a few of the mistakes/lessons I saw the most:
- Not understanding the trade (catalysts, timeframe, entry points, key metrics)
- Not having an exit strategy (always have one before entering a trade)
- Getting in too late ("By the time you read it in the WSJ...")
- Relying on others to tell them when to enter/exit (WSB, Blind, etc)
- Greed / not taking profits
- Waiting for unknown data or catalysts (always trade based on known information)
- Dismissing peak information parity
- Ignoring their mental health (if you can't sleep, you are overexposed)
- Going into a weekend with uncertainty (key for macro events)
- Trading with one hand tied behind their back (only up and not down)
To anyone who survived through the past few days: Please go easy on yourself, losing money on this event does not define you.
The lessons you acquired will be carried forward and be incredibly helpful to make better choices in future trades. While GME was unique, there will be plenty of 10x'ers out there waiting for you.
And even then, GME may not be entirely done, but time will tell.
chopinor
回复 1楼vincentilia的帖子
大家都说20刀进去的人可以hold不用panic sell,现在问题是这波short的人是300刀入的,你们打算怎么squeeze人家?
花衣裳
没有基本面支持迟早要回归价值
hkmty
火箭,不管飞多高,最后都会落回地面的
ivyparker
一时冲动之下的追涨,99%都是会亏钱的。
chopinor
回复 1楼vincentilia的帖子
补充说句不好听的,那个带头大哥如果一直hold 花街说不定要把这个股票定在12块(他的call得strike)让他一分都赚不到
space_invader
回复 3楼chopinor的帖子
》这波short的人是300刀入的,你们打算怎么squeeze人家? 300刀做空的,成本也不少吧?不然别人为什么愿意借给你做空而不是自己卖掉,之后再低价买回?
chopinor
回复 3楼chopinor的帖子
》这波short的人是300刀入的,你们打算怎么squeeze人家? 300刀做空的,成本也不少吧?不然别人为什么愿意借给你做空而不是自己卖掉,之后再低价买回?
space_invader 发表于 2021-02-04 22:49

成本就是borrow 年化20pct,很多人不卖是因为是passive
Perseus2000
回复 3楼chopinor的帖子
》这波short的人是300刀入的,你们打算怎么squeeze人家? 300刀做空的,成本也不少吧?不然别人为什么愿意借给你做空而不是自己卖掉,之后再低价买回?
space_invader 发表于 2021-02-04 22:49

因为发行了那么多股票,随时都至少有那么多股票在外面啊
baobaoguaiguai
20刀入的为什么不panic?低价买了很多股,最高有几百万的时候,跌成几万属于重大损失。几百万刀没了,你说panic不panic。反倒是一共几百刀买的,即使买在顶上,跌的再狠也不会Panic。所以看的不是买入的价格,是有多少股在里面。
space_invader
成本就是borrow 年化20pct,很多人不卖是因为是passive
chopinor 发表于 2021-02-04 22:52

感觉不贵啊?看来今年还会有一大堆实体店要被short倒。 以后mall里不会只剩dollar tree,dollar general吧?
space_invader
因为发行了那么多股票,随时都至少有那么多股票在外面啊
Perseus2000 发表于 2021-02-04 23:00

我问的是,如果市价300,基本面价30 为什么持股人要借出做空,一年赚20%? 而不直接卖出,之后再抄底,几天赚100%的价差?
饭饭
回复 1楼vincentilia的帖子
补充说句不好听的,那个带头大哥如果一直hold 花街说不定要把这个股票定在12块(他的call得strike)让他一分都赚不到
chopinor 发表于 2021-02-04 22:22

他已经卖出一部分了吧,1000多W?
chopinor
我问的是,如果市价300,基本面价30 为什么持股人要借出做空,一年赚20%? 而不直接卖出,之后再抄底,几天赚100%的价差?
space_invader 发表于 2021-02-04 23:09

因为passive fund不允许卖
chopinor
感觉不贵啊?看来今年还会有一大堆实体店要被short倒。 以后mall里不会只剩dollar tree,dollar general吧?
space_invader 发表于 2021-02-04 23:04

我觉得这个班上的人真是需要基本的education,破产的公司股票可能会go to zero 但是不是vice vera好不好
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19746438
chopinor
20刀入的为什么不panic?低价买了很多股,最高有几百万的时候,跌成几万属于重大损失。几百万刀没了,你说panic不panic。反倒是一共几百刀买的,即使买在顶上,跌的再狠也不会Panic。所以看的不是买入的价格,是有多少股在里面。
baobaoguaiguai 发表于 2021-02-04 23:03

你20刀入的现在还是赚钱的呗,当然我不认同这种说吧,failing to realize a gain is a loss too,我只是说那些喊大家hold的人的理由
s
scion
我觉得这个班上的人真是需要基本的education,破产的公司股票可能会go to zero 但是不是vice vera好不好
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19746438
chopinor 发表于 2021-02-05 00:03

跟风喊着公司会被short倒的,不知道是笨还是坏
xiaoyangtao
炒股这个事,是个零和游戏,是最不能跟风的。忽悠你买股票的人一般只有一个目的,让你给他托盘或接盘
c
cici159
这难道不是迟早的事。
space_invader
回复 16楼chopinor的帖子
link说的是profitable company,有钱的话可以直接buy back/take private啊,当然没问题。
但现在很多retail都需要借钱度日的吧? 新股卖不了不是只能举债?债多了就负荷不了了吧
股价低了也可能被踢出index, 那passive investor也要卖了不是?downward spiral
space_invader
因为passive fund不允许卖
chopinor 发表于 2021-02-04 23:59

是完全不准,还是定时限内必须track? 另外,借出给做空是可以的吗?这也是有风险的吧?
baobaoguaiguai
你20刀入的现在还是赚钱的呗,当然我不认同这种说吧,failing to realize a gain is a loss too,我只是说那些喊大家hold的人的理由
chopinor 发表于 2021-02-05 00:04

你最高有几百万的时候,你面对的是马上卖了获得几百万,还是等着归零。这里面的心理压力是巨大的。那些wsb领头的都是这种巨大压力,能顶住的都是大神。