我们觉得这是首相给自己的灾难级应对策略找的借口。前几天一天死了1800. 首相把锅都甩给新变种了。 死亡率这个up to 50%是什么意思呢，看下面加粗英文部分。翻译过来就是（我不知道为啥BBC不说30%-40%, 而是说up to 50%) “对于一个平均水平的60岁男性来说，原版病毒的死亡风险是千分之十。现在证据指向新变种的死亡风险是千分之13到14，但这还不够明确。” PS： 欧洲现在到处都在呼吁用医用口罩代替布口罩了。 奥地利和巴伐利亚已经先行一步，规定室内（比如超市公交）必须戴约等于N95的口罩。欧洲的级别叫FFP2，中国韩国的KN也可以。 德国其他地区现在是强制医用口罩。 其他欧洲国家也都在讨论中。连英国都有这个呼吁。英国还在放风出来说考虑学澳洲搞落地隔离旅店，拯救下崩溃的hotel们。。。 European countries mandate medical-grade masks over homemade cloth face coverings https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/22/europe/europe-covid-medical-masks-intl/index.html Fridays coronavirus briefing was led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He was joined by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser. Here is what they told us: There is some evidence that the new variant of the virus is associated with higher mortality, as well as being more infectiousFor an average man in his 60s, the risk of dying with the original virus is 10 in 1,000 cases. Evidence suggests the risk with the new variant is 13 or 14 deaths in 1,000 cases, but this is uncertain The number of people in hospital with Covid is 78% higher than it was in the first peak in April Vaccines appear to be effective against the UK variant, but there is concern about their effectiveness against variants from South Africa and Brazil At the moment, people who have had a vaccine must stick to social distancing rules. The vaccine prevents severe disease but may not prevent people catching and spreading the virus - especially as there is a lot of virus in the community Restrictions will not be lifted until infections have fallen, but there are no plans to tighten them Risk of death from UK variant may by up to 50% higher - scientist Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be up to 50% more deadly, according to the scientist whose research led to today’s government announcement. Nick Davies, assistant professor of mathematical modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the estimate that the risk of death increased by 30% was "uncertain". "We think it could be anywhere between 10 to 50%, according to our analysis,” he said. Mr Davies – a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which feeds into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) – said it would be very important to get a variety of different streams of evidence, looking at the problem in different ways. However, he added that “a number of groups have looked at the data in a number of different ways, and unfortunately come to similar conclusions”. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627 卫生大臣表示疫苗对南非变种有效降低50% Matt Hancock claims early data shows South African variant may make Covid jabs 50% less effective as he warns easing travel restrictions could send UK back to ''''''''''''''''square one https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9176359/Matt-Hancock-claims-South-African-variant-makes-Covid-jabs-50-effective.html 英国一对情侣在男方上呼吸机前在ICU结婚 目前两人已经都脱离生命危险 PS 英国变种其实还算manageable 巴西变种才叫可怕 看看 巴西现在都只能去自己抗氧气瓶
看我加粗的部分 For an average man in his 60s, the risk of dying with the original virus is 10 in 1,000 cases. Evidence suggests the risk with the new variant is 13 or 14 deaths in 1,000 cases, but this is uncertain
死亡率这个up to 50%是什么意思呢，看下面加粗英文部分。翻译过来就是（我不知道为啥BBC不说30%-40%, 而是说up to 50%) “对于一个平均水平的60岁男性来说，原版病毒的死亡风险是千分之十。现在证据指向新变种的死亡风险是千分之13到14，但这还不够明确。”
PS： 欧洲现在到处都在呼吁用医用口罩代替布口罩了。 奥地利和巴伐利亚已经先行一步，规定室内（比如超市公交）必须戴约等于N95的口罩。欧洲的级别叫FFP2，中国韩国的KN也可以。 德国其他地区现在是强制医用口罩。 其他欧洲国家也都在讨论中。连英国都有这个呼吁。英国还在放风出来说考虑学澳洲搞落地隔离旅店，拯救下崩溃的hotel们。。。 European countries mandate medical-grade masks over homemade cloth face coverings https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/22/europe/europe-covid-medical-masks-intl/index.html
Fridays coronavirus briefing was led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He was joined by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser. Here is what they told us: There is some evidence that the new variant of the virus is associated with higher mortality, as well as being more infectious For an average man in his 60s, the risk of dying with the original virus is 10 in 1,000 cases. Evidence suggests the risk with the new variant is 13 or 14 deaths in 1,000 cases, but this is uncertain The number of people in hospital with Covid is 78% higher than it was in the first peak in April Vaccines appear to be effective against the UK variant, but there is concern about their effectiveness against variants from South Africa and Brazil At the moment, people who have had a vaccine must stick to social distancing rules. The vaccine prevents severe disease but may not prevent people catching and spreading the virus - especially as there is a lot of virus in the community Restrictions will not be lifted until infections have fallen, but there are no plans to tighten them
Risk of death from UK variant may by up to 50% higher - scientist Early evidence suggests the variant of coronavirus that emerged in the UK may be up to 50% more deadly, according to the scientist whose research led to today’s government announcement. Nick Davies, assistant professor of mathematical modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told BBC Radio 4’s PM programme the estimate that the risk of death increased by 30% was "uncertain". "We think it could be anywhere between 10 to 50%, according to our analysis,” he said. Mr Davies – a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which feeds into the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) – said it would be very important to get a variety of different streams of evidence, looking at the problem in different ways. However, he added that “a number of groups have looked at the data in a number of different ways, and unfortunately come to similar conclusions”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55768627
卫生大臣表示疫苗对南非变种有效降低50% Matt Hancock claims early data shows South African variant may make Covid jabs 50% less effective as he warns easing travel restrictions could send UK back to ''''''''''''''''square one https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9176359/Matt-Hancock-claims-South-African-variant-makes-Covid-jabs-50-effective.html
英国一对情侣在男方上呼吸机前在ICU结婚 目前两人已经都脱离生命危险
PS 英国变种其实还算manageable 巴西变种才叫可怕 看看 巴西现在都只能去自己抗氧气瓶
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https://www.youtube.com/embed/UyOOAKjHT3U
不是借口，几项研究的结果基本类似，死亡率确实更高。
这确实是个很危险的毒株，传染性增加40-50%，死亡率增加30-50%，而且能够在一定程度上逃脱已有的抗体：辉瑞疫苗打一针后21天的血清对英国变种的中和能力下降接近4倍。不过打完两针疫苗之后的血清对这个UK变种的中和能力似乎没有很大影响。
主要是Bojo刚好这时候跳出来说，给人一种大力甩锅的感觉。。。
不过有人的抗体没用这事，已经是我们这里常识了。春天中招的现在中招的不少见。
不过你们说不得现在加州流行的比俺们肯特变种还要牛一点。。。所以其实也就无所谓了...随他去吧...
如果属实，新冠起码还得 一年多。。。。 今年别指望了。。。
才上台两天拐个啥拐 要看7天平均值
关于死亡率这个事情 我其实很好奇他们怎么排除天气这个因素的 毕竟12月1月是UK最冷 日照超级短的时期
看我加粗的部分
For an average man in his 60s, the risk of dying with the original virus is 10 in 1,000 cases. Evidence suggests the risk with the new variant is 13 or 14 deaths in 1,000 cases, but this is uncertain
不是说11.3就miracally dissapear的吗?? 川粉的脸是不是还不够肿?
他们哪还有脸。。。
膜拜，竟然有人真的觉得这个数字跟政治挂钩
稳住，镇定，即使得了 》90% 能挺过来。。。
还有伦敦是不是已经医疗崩溃了？是的话，肯定会大大增加死亡率？
咋定义崩溃。。。
反正当初俺们首相是两个护士看他一个 现在我们ICU是一个护士看4个。。。
我的理解是康复病人的抗体远远不及疫苗带来的抗体，还有T细胞免疫。所以群免没用，只能靠疫苗。。 希望英国不要发神经坚持3个月后再打第二针。
重症死亡率高了，可能是病毒致病性增强，也可能这一年摸索总结出来的治疗方法因为变异而失效。 别忘了传染性也增强了。重症年龄降低。 然后疫苗，第一波还没打完，保护性现在从减弱到可能无效，如果modify疫苗，打疫苗的速度能追上变异么？ 所以提出有效物理防护，大力推广高级别口罩。
BTW 死亡率这个事情。。。
帝国理工说是29%～36% 但是有个Exeter大学算出来涨了91%。。。。
我擦
为何加州变种比肯特还牛？ucsf的研究貌似在进行中，但还没有告诉我们结果
估计太惨淡了，不准备告诉我们了
是
true
我生小孩时经历过
两护士盯我一个的时候什么问题都不怕
一护士盯好几个的时候叫天天不应 叫地地不灵
哪里推广了？老外都布口罩傻了吧唧的 老中都是两层一次性三层口罩了我看 KN95的也不少
我就是说这事说不定嘛
要是加州变种更牛逼 是个好事 说明加州不会更糟糕了。。。
握爪
看我第一层 人家奥地利都官方要求全民N95了。。。
不能同意更多
还要看是不是老人院又爆了一波，我这是一十二月死亡率升高了很多就是因为老人院第二波了，这波过去死亡率又降低了，感觉变量太多
估计这里面有门道 大家做matched propensity的模型并不一致
哦 有道理
🙏茶mm
face shield特别有用
我4块钱买5个那种Sam’s的face shield 管用吗？
又是肥胖人士。
有 face shield + 口罩 防护效果 》》》口罩only
这个有没有什么测试或统计结果？ 觉得face shield主要保护了眼睛，空气中飘的病毒气溶胶肯定会飘到眼睛里。。。所以光戴口罩不够
有 我之前贴过 挺早的时候NYC的对照组 都是照顾病人的护士 一半口罩 有感染的 一半口罩+face shield 没感染的
Biden Curve数据造假最擅长啊
政府方面则要密切追踪，检测重点人群和密切接触者。然后大家都打疫苗。
你们在欧洲能买到N95或者同等的医疗口罩吗？我去年三四月份想方设法给欧洲的朋友寄去好些3M的N90, 他们一直戴这些口罩。但是我怕那些N90的级别已经不够了，得上N95才行。
政府印那么多钱，给人发补助金，不如其中一部分换成发放高等级口罩。如果真的能全民戴高等级口罩，疫情肯定可以迅速压下去！
别说N95了，先把布口罩换成医用口罩吧