新变异的威力 圣诞前 英格兰每85个人/每33个中学生/每50个小学生中有一个正在新冠positive

梅干茶泡饭
楼主 (北美华人网)
这个不是新闻,算是旧闻了,数据是圣诞前公布的。今天和一些朋友聊天,他们还没有体会到。。。可能很多人觉得难以置信。。。  注意不是“曾经得过”,而是“正在经历”。这个数据是政府test/tracing/sampling得出的estimated number, 包括无症状感染的。 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24december2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

梅干茶泡饭
梅干茶泡饭
就在这样的数据面前 明天 英格兰除了东南和伦敦地区以外的小学 就要开学了。。。 我现在非常理解为啥疫苗不做儿童测试了 因为这个速度 再有一个月。。。所有儿童都得过了。。。
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little_racoon
回复 1楼梅干茶泡饭的帖子
这个新变异在小孩里面传的特别快,非常麻烦,因为小孩的疫苗到现在还没开始做呢。。。
o
okeanos
我觉得吧,政府看重的是,小孩是否会传染给大人,小孩中招后重症比例高不高。如果这两项指标不令人担心的话,是不太情愿停课的,因为小学生一停课,家长就没法上班,经济就要跨了。政府没能力再大撒币。
对了,英国官方是不是辟谣说,英国儿童重症室并没有被新冠压垮,和往年相比,还算正常啊?
b
bye2020
死亡呢?如果1/3的孩子在圣诞前得了还没有大批死亡,那就不用打疫苗啊,打了也不能制止传播。
梅干茶泡饭
我觉得吧,政府看重的是,小孩是否会传染给大人,小孩中招后重症比例高不高。如果这两项指标不令人担心的话,是不太情愿停课的,因为小学生一停课,家长就没法上班,经济就要跨了。政府没能力再大撒币。
对了,英国官方是不是辟谣说,英国儿童重症室并没有被新冠压垮,和往年相比,还算正常啊?
okeanos 发表于 2021-01-03 17:15

道理大家都懂 但是现在延迟两周开课把圣诞新年这一波躲过去再说啊。。。

说起来前几天一个report还发现 也就是说原来所谓的小孩不easily pass给大人的结论是完全错的。。。
https://twitter.com/CarolCampbell4/status/1345786902159482880
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nehz
小孩hospitalization几率高吗?
梅干茶泡饭

Dr. Carol Campbell @CarolCampbell4
Interesting thread about #COVID19 & children in UK. Basically, children are more likely to bring COVID into households than adults & also more likely to transmit the virus. This has important implications for schools. #OntEd @Sflecce @maritstiles @StevenDelDuca @MikeSchreiner
梅干茶泡饭
1/ SAGE paper on #COVID19 tranmission in children, dated 17 Dec, published 31 Dec. This paper was "approved prioer to the emergence of data on the new variant". It includes analysis on household transmission risk. 2/ As you can see from the graph above, children were more likely to be the index case (i.e. bring the infection home). Compared to those aged 17 and over, the likelihood was 7 times higher for children aged 12-16 years and almost 3 times higher for children under 12. The 'relative transmissibility' means passing the virus on to others. As you can see in the graph, this was also more than twice as likely in children (both under 12 and 12-16) compared to adults. The paper states: "accumulating evidence is consistent with increased transmission occurring amongst school children when schools are open, particularly in children of secondary school age (high confidence)." It also states: "multiple data sources show a reduction in transmission in children following schools closing for half term, and transmission rates increasing again following the post-half term return to school (medium confidence)." To put this in context in terms of how common the infection is in children, here is the most recent ONS data. It is very high. Just to highlight the latest @ONS prevalence survey figures (up to 18 Dec): 1 in 50 (2%) children aged 2-10 and 1 in 33 (3%) secondary-school aged children had #COVID19. Higher than all other groups aged 25 and above. https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661874302578689
梅干茶泡饭
梅干茶泡饭
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little_racoon
回复 8楼nehz的帖子
不高,但是可以传给大人啊
梅干茶泡饭
小孩hospitalization几率高吗?
nehz 发表于 2021-01-03 19:18

不高 但是老师家长死了的报道很多的
m
msqs
美国好像慢半拍,还在儿童不感染不传染没症状所有学校确诊的case都是学校外感染的的阶段
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csliz
回复 1楼梅干茶泡饭的帖子
住院率/重症率,死亡率 如何,有数据吗 ??