Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world Anti-Beijing bias has blinded too many for too long to opportunities RAY DALIO https://www.ft.com/content/8749b742-d3c9-41b4-910e-80e8693c36e6 The writer is the founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates For as long as I can remember, people have said that China cannot succeed. Communism doesn’t work. Authoritarianism doesn’t work. The Chinese aren’t creative. They have a big problem with bad debts and property speculation. Yet every day we see China succeeding in exceptional ways. It has achieved some of the world’s lowest Covid-19 case rates. Over the past year, its economy grew at almost 5 per cent, without monetising debt, while all major economies contracted. China produces more than it consumes and runs a balance of payments surplus, unlike the US and many western nations. This year nearly half the world’s initial public offerings will be in China, including Ant Financial’s $30bn listing, the world’s biggest ever. Even Tesla’s best-selling Model 3 car may soon be made entirely in China. The world order is changing, yet many are missing this because of a persistent anti-China bias. China’s extraordinary performance isn’t new. In fact, apart from the 1839-1949 “Century of humiliation”, it has historically been one of the world’s most powerful countries and cultures. Just over the past four decades its economic changes have been remarkable. Whatever criticisms you may have about Chinese “state capitalism”, you cannot say it hasn’t worked, even if you strongly disagree with how Beijing has done it. When I first visited China 36 years ago, I would give $10 pocket calculators to high-ranking officials. They thought they were miracle devices. Now China rivals the US in advanced technologies and will probably take the lead in five years. Since 1984, per capita incomes have risen more than 30 times, life expectancy has increased by a decade and poverty rates have fallen nearly to zero. In 1990, China’s first stock market was launched, designed by seven young patriots who I knew. Since then, it has become the second largest in the world. All this is to say that China’s rise has giant political, economic and investment implications. Politically, China has become a major issue for both parties in the US, which fears its rise, spreading global influence, and rejects its authoritarian model and treatment of minorities such as the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China’s rejoinder is that a strong hand is needed to maintain order, what happens inside its borders is its business, and the US has its own human rights problems. Its sovereignty over Taiwan, Hong Kong and other areas are also big issues that are hotly disputed. Nobody knows how these tensions will pan out, but they will affect us all. Meanwhile, China’s economy is roughly the same size as the US’s and expanding at a faster pace — so time is on China’s side. It has a growing population of well-educated people, with around a third of the world’s science and technology university majors, three times the US share. It also produces and collects vastly more data to process with artificial intelligence. For many in the west, this has a dark side in terms of state surveillance. But for many Chinese it reinforces positive social norms while also promising vast efficiencies. One way to look at China’s relative power is that, with four times the US population, when its per capita income reaches half the US’s in about 25 years, its economy will be twice as large. Last, there are the investment implications. As a global macro investor, I think a lot about how much I should invest where, looking at fundamentals and how others are positioned. China’s fundamentals are strong, its assets relatively attractively priced, and the world is underweight Chinese stocks and bonds. These currently account for 3 per cent or less of foreign portfolio holdings; a neutral weighting would be closer to 15 per cent. This discrepancy is at least in part due to anti-Chinese bias. I think it is about to change. Chinese markets are opening up to foreigners, who can now access at least 60 per cent of them compared with 1 per cent in 2015. Benchmark weights in major indices are rising. As a result, I expect China to enjoy favourable capital inflows that will support the currency, already at a two-year high, and financial markets too. All this argues for a China overweight in my portfolio. Of course things can go wrong in any country. Beijing may not stay its current course of economic reform, though I doubt that will happen. The US and China are also competing fiercely — some say warring — over trade, technology, geopolitics, capital markets and military power. No one can know how bad these wars will be, which country will win, or how. That is why I diversify and allocate money to both countries. In the long run, timeless and universal truths determine why countries succeed or fail. In brief, empires rise when they are productive, financially sound, earn more than they spend, and increase assets faster than their liabilities. This tends to happen when their people are well educated, work hard and behave civilly. Objectively compare China with the US on these measures, as I chronicle in an ongoing study, and the fundamentals clearly favour China. Prejudice and bias always blind people to opportunity. So, if you have been a China sceptic for reasons that don’t square with what is happening there, I suggest you clear your mind. Likewise for events in the US and its place in the changing world. The eve of the US election is a good time to reflect on both.
all employees of the verizon store were able to exit the store safely. The cause of the crash and fire is still under investigation. smelled like a sudden medical condition...
all employees of the verizon store were able to exit the store safely. The cause of the crash and fire is still under investigation. smelled like a sudden medical situation... yolandos 发表于 2020-12-19 10:27
我觉得怪怪的。Ray是少数不停在说真话的人。为什么之前那么多年他说真话没事，今年就有事了？他那个关于debt cycle的科普视频很多人看的。他也不是唱衰美国，只不过说出了实情。到底是什么人慌了，对他儿子下手？ Ray Dalio我follow好多年了，是个真性情的汉子。
What signal? oh, you mean the market is near the top high of the year and covid-19 vaccines are just approved and government just avoided a shutdown and russian hackers are waging a cyber war against U.S and Tesla being in the S&P index the next business day...?
Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world Anti-Beijing bias has blinded too many for too long to opportunities RAY DALIO https://www.ft.com/content/8749b742-d3c9-41b4-910e-80e8693c36e6 The writer is the founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates For as long as I can remember, people have said that China cannot succeed. Communism doesn’t work. Authoritarianism doesn’t work. The Chinese aren’t creative. They have a big problem with bad debts and property speculation. Yet every day we see China succeeding in exceptional ways. It has achieved some of the world’s lowest Covid-19 case rates. Over the past year, its economy grew at almost 5 per cent, without monetising debt, while all major economies contracted. China produces more than it consumes and runs a balance of payments surplus, unlike the US and many western nations. This year nearly half the world’s initial public offerings will be in China, including Ant Financial’s $30bn listing, the world’s biggest ever. Even Tesla’s best-selling Model 3 car may soon be made entirely in China. The world order is changing, yet many are missing this because of a persistent anti-China bias. China’s extraordinary performance isn’t new. In fact, apart from the 1839-1949 “Century of humiliation”, it has historically been one of the world’s most powerful countries and cultures. Just over the past four decades its economic changes have been remarkable. Whatever criticisms you may have about Chinese “state capitalism”, you cannot say it hasn’t worked, even if you strongly disagree with how Beijing has done it. When I first visited China 36 years ago, I would give $10 pocket calculators to high-ranking officials. They thought they were miracle devices. Now China rivals the US in advanced technologies and will probably take the lead in five years. Since 1984, per capita incomes have risen more than 30 times, life expectancy has increased by a decade and poverty rates have fallen nearly to zero. In 1990, China’s first stock market was launched, designed by seven young patriots who I knew. Since then, it has become the second largest in the world. All this is to say that China’s rise has giant political, economic and investment implications. Politically, China has become a major issue for both parties in the US, which fears its rise, spreading global influence, and rejects its authoritarian model and treatment of minorities such as the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China’s rejoinder is that a strong hand is needed to maintain order, what happens inside its borders is its business, and the US has its own human rights problems. Its sovereignty over Taiwan, Hong Kong and other areas are also big issues that are hotly disputed. Nobody knows how these tensions will pan out, but they will affect us all. Meanwhile, China’s economy is roughly the same size as the US’s and expanding at a faster pace — so time is on China’s side. It has a growing population of well-educated people, with around a third of the world’s science and technology university majors, three times the US share. It also produces and collects vastly more data to process with artificial intelligence. For many in the west, this has a dark side in terms of state surveillance. But for many Chinese it reinforces positive social norms while also promising vast efficiencies. One way to look at China’s relative power is that, with four times the US population, when its per capita income reaches half the US’s in about 25 years, its economy will be twice as large. Last, there are the investment implications. As a global macro investor, I think a lot about how much I should invest where, looking at fundamentals and how others are positioned. China’s fundamentals are strong, its assets relatively attractively priced, and the world is underweight Chinese stocks and bonds. These currently account for 3 per cent or less of foreign portfolio holdings; a neutral weighting would be closer to 15 per cent. This discrepancy is at least in part due to anti-Chinese bias. I think it is about to change. Chinese markets are opening up to foreigners, who can now access at least 60 per cent of them compared with 1 per cent in 2015. Benchmark weights in major indices are rising. As a result, I expect China to enjoy favourable capital inflows that will support the currency, already at a two-year high, and financial markets too. All this argues for a China overweight in my portfolio. Of course things can go wrong in any country. Beijing may not stay its current course of economic reform, though I doubt that will happen. The US and China are also competing fiercely — some say warring — over trade, technology, geopolitics, capital markets and military power. No one can know how bad these wars will be, which country will win, or how. That is why I diversify and allocate money to both countries. In the long run, timeless and universal truths determine why countries succeed or fail. In brief, empires rise when they are productive, financially sound, earn more than they spend, and increase assets faster than their liabilities. This tends to happen when their people are well educated, work hard and behave civilly. Objectively compare China with the US on these measures, as I chronicle in an ongoing study, and the fundamentals clearly favour China. Prejudice and bias always blind people to opportunity. So, if you have been a China sceptic for reasons that don’t square with what is happening there, I suggest you clear your mind. Likewise for events in the US and its place in the changing world. The eve of the US election is a good time to reflect on both.
Bridgewater老板
Rest In Peace
感觉是有些诡异 前阵子不是出了份报告唱多中国
同感 （不够资格，点赞不了）
说这话前，先看看你讲的话。。。
RAY DALIO
https://www.ft.com/content/8749b742-d3c9-41b4-910e-80e8693c36e6
The writer is the founder, co-chairman and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates
For as long as I can remember, people have said that China cannot succeed. Communism doesn’t work. Authoritarianism doesn’t work. The Chinese aren’t creative. They have a big problem with bad debts and property speculation. Yet every day we see China succeeding in exceptional ways.
It has achieved some of the world’s lowest Covid-19 case rates. Over the past year, its economy grew at almost 5 per cent, without monetising debt, while all major economies contracted. China produces more than it consumes and runs a balance of payments surplus, unlike the US and many western nations. This year nearly half the world’s initial public offerings will be in China, including Ant Financial’s $30bn listing, the world’s biggest ever. Even Tesla’s best-selling Model 3 car may soon be made entirely in China.
The world order is changing, yet many are missing this because of a persistent anti-China bias. China’s extraordinary performance isn’t new. In fact, apart from the 1839-1949 “Century of humiliation”, it has historically been one of the world’s most powerful countries and cultures. Just over the past four decades its economic changes have been remarkable. Whatever criticisms you may have about Chinese “state capitalism”, you cannot say it hasn’t worked, even if you strongly disagree with how Beijing has done it.
When I first visited China 36 years ago, I would give $10 pocket calculators to high-ranking officials. They thought they were miracle devices. Now China rivals the US in advanced technologies and will probably take the lead in five years. Since 1984, per capita incomes have risen more than 30 times, life expectancy has increased by a decade and poverty rates have fallen nearly to zero. In 1990, China’s first stock market was launched, designed by seven young patriots who I knew. Since then, it has become the second largest in the world.
All this is to say that China’s rise has giant political, economic and investment implications. Politically, China has become a major issue for both parties in the US, which fears its rise, spreading global influence, and rejects its authoritarian model and treatment of minorities such as the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. China’s rejoinder is that a strong hand is needed to maintain order, what happens inside its borders is its business, and the US has its own human rights problems. Its sovereignty over Taiwan, Hong Kong and other areas are also big issues that are hotly disputed. Nobody knows how these tensions will pan out, but they will affect us all.
Meanwhile, China’s economy is roughly the same size as the US’s and expanding at a faster pace — so time is on China’s side. It has a growing population of well-educated people, with around a third of the world’s science and technology university majors, three times the US share. It also produces and collects vastly more data to process with artificial intelligence. For many in the west, this has a dark side in terms of state surveillance. But for many Chinese it reinforces positive social norms while also promising vast efficiencies. One way to look at China’s relative power is that, with four times the US population, when its per capita income reaches half the US’s in about 25 years, its economy will be twice as large.
Last, there are the investment implications. As a global macro investor, I think a lot about how much I should invest where, looking at fundamentals and how others are positioned. China’s fundamentals are strong, its assets relatively attractively priced, and the world is underweight Chinese stocks and bonds. These currently account for 3 per cent or less of foreign portfolio holdings; a neutral weighting would be closer to 15 per cent.
This discrepancy is at least in part due to anti-Chinese bias. I think it is about to change. Chinese markets are opening up to foreigners, who can now access at least 60 per cent of them compared with 1 per cent in 2015. Benchmark weights in major indices are rising. As a result, I expect China to enjoy favourable capital inflows that will support the currency, already at a two-year high, and financial markets too. All this argues for a China overweight in my portfolio.
Of course things can go wrong in any country. Beijing may not stay its current course of economic reform, though I doubt that will happen. The US and China are also competing fiercely — some say warring — over trade, technology, geopolitics, capital markets and military power. No one can know how bad these wars will be, which country will win, or how. That is why I diversify and allocate money to both countries.
In the long run, timeless and universal truths determine why countries succeed or fail. In brief, empires rise when they are productive, financially sound, earn more than they spend, and increase assets faster than their liabilities. This tends to happen when their people are well educated, work hard and behave civilly. Objectively compare China with the US on these measures, as I chronicle in an ongoing study, and the fundamentals clearly favour China.
Prejudice and bias always blind people to opportunity. So, if you have been a China sceptic for reasons that don’t square with what is happening there, I suggest you clear your mind. Likewise for events in the US and its place in the changing world. The eve of the US election is a good time to reflect on both.
但是总归还是要希望逝者RIP
他有这么大的力量？做空的力量那么强大？
他没做空 他一个阿拉伯客户要把钱都拿出来 量很大
他是投资界的大佬，很多金融博主会跟踪他和他基金的操作。果然认知水平很高
all employees of the verizon store were able to exit the store safely.
The cause of the crash and fire is still under investigation.
smelled like a sudden medical condition...
我觉得怪怪的。Ray是少数不停在说真话的人。为什么之前那么多年他说真话没事，今年就有事了？他那个关于debt cycle的科普视频很多人看的。他也不是唱衰美国，只不过说出了实情。到底是什么人慌了，对他儿子下手？
Ray Dalio我follow好多年了，是个真性情的汉子。
你想多了。tragic accidents happen all the time.
我不觉得。我经常看他访谈，前几年他就不停地说美国债务问题，但当时一片歌舞升平，我还想他讲得那么恳切，怎么没人关心？
今年这样了他还在不停地说，尤其之前整了个抛物线，把美国放在了right before revolution。我当时就想他怎么还不闭嘴，这个大家大部分心里有数了，只不过不选择说出来。
stimulus package死活不出不就是因为deficit吗？为什么在这个节点他儿子车祸去世？我不相信是巧合。
不过他有四个还是五个儿子。但这信号太明显了。
你这么说我更怀疑了
是的，我看了网上的照片，没有雪。冲上curb，还能撞到店里，然后起火，肯定是全力冲刺的。当然有可能是medical condition，还是under influence就不知道了。
应该是很庆幸，curb上人行道没有行人，店里没有人距离门口进。车没有爆炸。所以没有其他人受伤。
ray dalio竟然是支持trump的？
不觉得现在还支持。
呃 他家是victim好么
股市最低点有客人要redemption
我知道啊 你爬楼
我并没有说是他故意的
What signal? oh, you mean the market is near the top high of the year and covid-19 vaccines are just approved and government just avoided a shutdown and russian hackers are waging a cyber war against U.S and Tesla being in the S&P index the next business day...?
我不觉得有关。Bridgewater AUM总共才100多个billion，not gonna make a dent on mkt
这个我也没法证明是causal的 只记得当时新冠出现很久了 股市没啥反应 结果阿拉伯王子就出现了 只能说timing过于巧 有可信度
不管怎样 感谢他在其他方面做的努力吧 逝者rip
然后自己第二季度报表却显示他增持20%的黄金和35%的大盘ETF（SPY）.
增持20%的黄金能理解。
增持35%的spy这是啥操作？
野火烧不净，股市韭菜割又生。。。
还有ackman
你现在倒过去想 真的是割韭菜的大好时机 （但是当时就没体会到 不然我们怎么会是韭菜呢）
不排除有可能
我现在开高速都害怕，在全美都是病毒和新冠病人的情况下。
local开车还能有反应的时间。
不排除这个可能啊。 他这个开法，不是常见的开车意外。一般人了不起撞一下curb，不会开上了curb，开过人行道，开到了店里，还是高速的所以起火。
嗯 有道理
我也觉得奇怪，那个停车场很小，速度都提不起来，还有curb，怎么就冲到店里了呢
先把人民币自由兑换了 再来说吧
Dalio个人都超过100亿资产了，上面别瞎说
桥水一直是最大hedgefund，我之所以怀疑是因为他唱衰美国多年了。以前歌舞升平没事，今年出事时间点很疑惑
不小心点踩了 想改还改不过来
哇，你这么一说，是很可怕。我都不敢开高速了。
通过今年的情况，我已经连地球是外星人实验基地的假设都能接受了。木有什么不可能的。
是啊 到底怎么回事
今早新闻说有个诺奖得主也死了
wow 谢谢指出
好希望这都是一个梦啊
你这么说也有道理的
他一直对中国很友好
其实对中国友好的大佬很多，越top的人越open-minded
只不过他这么vocal的不多