Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows By David LauterWashington Bureau Chief With one week to go before the 2020 campaign ends, California remains on track to hand former Vice President Joe Biden a victory by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history, the final UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll indicates. Biden leads President Trump 65%-29%, the poll finds. That 36-point margin would top the 30-point advantage that Hillary Clinton amassed against Trump in 2016, the previous record for a Democrat. The only larger victory in state history came exactly a century ago, in 1920, when Warren G. Harding, the Republican, beat James Cox, the Democratic candidate, by 42 points. The likely outcome in California has never been in much doubt. The former vice president consistently has led Trump by huge margins in statewide polls for the past two years. The Republican ticket has never pretended to contest the race in the state, despite California’s large trove of 55 electoral votes, visiting for fundraising but not much else. A Republican hasn’t carried California in a presidential contest since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and the state hasn’t been competitive in more than a generation. Biden leads among Californians of all races and regions of the state, with his strongest support coming from Los Angeles County (73%) and the Bay Area (77%) and among voters younger than 30 (75%), Black voters (84%), Latinos (72%) and Asian and Pacific Islanders (71%). Among white voters, Biden leads 61%-34%, the poll finds. White voters who did not graduate from college — Trump’s core group of supporters nationally — divide closely in California, with the president holding a 50%-45% edge. Biden has a huge advantage among college-educated white voters, 74%-21%. The one group of Californians among whom Trump has a clear lead are white, evangelical Christians, who favor him by 69%-22%. As is true elsewhere in the country, Biden has united Democrats behind him, winning 95% of the party’s voters, while Trump has failed to hold support of a small, but significant, slice of Republicans. Only 2% of self-identified Democrats say they plan to vote for Trump, but 8% of self-identified Republicans say they plan to vote for Biden. Biden’s backing also extends broadly through the ideological range, with 91% of those who identify as “very liberal” backing him, along with 96% of those who call themselves “somewhat liberal,” 69% of moderates and 17% of those who label themselves “somewhat conservative.” Trump gets 91% of those who call themselves “very conservative” — a relatively small slice of voters in California. The Berkeley IGS poll also asked voters about the vice presidential candidates. The vast majority of voters in both parties see Vice President Mike Pence as a conservative. Voters have a more divided view of Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate. Republicans overwhelmingly see her as liberal. Democrats are more divided: One-third of Biden voters call Harris either moderate (26%) or conservative (7%). The Berkeley IGS poll, supervised by pollster Mark DiCamillo, was administered online in English and Spanish from Oct. 16-21 among 6,686 registered voters, 5,352 of whom are considered likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error for the full sample is estimated at roughly 2 percentage points in either direction. Further can be found at the Berkeley IGS website.
because average is not a stable statistic also money doesn’t equal education i simply quoted the result of the study ... CleverBeaver 发表于 2020-10-27 13:18
By David LauterWashington Bureau Chief With one week to go before the 2020 campaign ends, California remains on track to hand former Vice President Joe Biden a victory by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history, the final UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll indicates. Biden leads President Trump 65%-29%, the poll finds. That 36-point margin would top the 30-point advantage that Hillary Clinton amassed against Trump in 2016, the previous record for a Democrat. The only larger victory in state history came exactly a century ago, in 1920, when Warren G. Harding, the Republican, beat James Cox, the Democratic candidate, by 42 points. The likely outcome in California has never been in much doubt. The former vice president consistently has led Trump by huge margins in statewide polls for the past two years. The Republican ticket has never pretended to contest the race in the state, despite California’s large trove of 55 electoral votes, visiting for fundraising but not much else. A Republican hasn’t carried California in a presidential contest since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and the state hasn’t been competitive in more than a generation. Biden leads among Californians of all races and regions of the state, with his strongest support coming from Los Angeles County (73%) and the Bay Area (77%) and among voters younger than 30 (75%), Black voters (84%), Latinos (72%) and Asian and Pacific Islanders (71%). Among white voters, Biden leads 61%-34%, the poll finds. White voters who did not graduate from college — Trump’s core group of supporters nationally — divide closely in California, with the president holding a 50%-45% edge. Biden has a huge advantage among college-educated white voters, 74%-21%. The one group of Californians among whom Trump has a clear lead are white, evangelical Christians, who favor him by 69%-22%. As is true elsewhere in the country, Biden has united Democrats behind him, winning 95% of the party’s voters, while Trump has failed to hold support of a small, but significant, slice of Republicans. Only 2% of self-identified Democrats say they plan to vote for Trump, but 8% of self-identified Republicans say they plan to vote for Biden. Biden’s backing also extends broadly through the ideological range, with 91% of those who identify as “very liberal” backing him, along with 96% of those who call themselves “somewhat liberal,” 69% of moderates and 17% of those who label themselves “somewhat conservative.” Trump gets 91% of those who call themselves “very conservative” — a relatively small slice of voters in California. The Berkeley IGS poll also asked voters about the vice presidential candidates. The vast majority of voters in both parties see Vice President Mike Pence as a conservative. Voters have a more divided view of Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate. Republicans overwhelmingly see her as liberal. Democrats are more divided: One-third of Biden voters call Harris either moderate (26%) or conservative (7%). The Berkeley IGS poll, supervised by pollster Mark DiCamillo, was administered online in English and Spanish from Oct. 16-21 among 6,686 registered voters, 5,352 of whom are considered likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error for the full sample is estimated at roughly 2 percentage points in either direction. Further can be found at the Berkeley IGS website.
🔥 最新回帖
这么算一下川普挺危险噢。
这一帖，看来别人屏蔽你是没问题的。满嘴跑火车，跟你讲话是浪费时间。 天天喷C C P的，自己干的就是复制C C P的独裁方式，根本不独什么是民主。 直接屏蔽是正道。
1。网上的都是真的？我不想被任何一派当枪使。2。是拜登选总统，不是他儿子。3。如果拜登儿子和川普家人一样入白宫当顾问，我也不投拜登不管拜登儿子丑闻的真假。
就你这种和郭骗子混的成天盯人下三路。 你有高清晰图，华人上多P O几张。 况且你盯着人家儿子下面干嘛？干点正事抨击老子政策才有意义。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
关键是加州是全美受教育程度最高的地区，美国还有好多老少边穷没文化的相信地球是平的呢。
一个全家老少乱伦的家族
一个出卖美国利益拿ccp脏钱的人
一个取消所有竞选活动的痴呆前期的老人
打算躺赢进白宫，是要在白宫乱伦吗？
这样的人能选上美国总统是美国的耻辱
其实这样的前副总统、总统候选人已经是冲击三观了
DC作为特区，不能和其他任何一个州比较，本质上是个东部城市。然后DC的post-graduate degree高等教育水平是全美最高，Boston排在后面。然后DC不管黑人白人基本都是Dems，最后DC非常Urban. 所以这个压倒性的支持率不奇怪，一直都这样。
Biden今年拿下popular votes应该是没有悬念的，关键还是几个摇摆州。
这个言论好奇怪，不知道哪里来的的底气啊，川普rally人山人海，白等rally上几乎没人，哪里看到压倒性了？
PA,MI其实都不是摇摆州，技术上都是浅蓝， 只不过川普要想赢，除了必须拿下所有的摇摆州以外， 必须翻掉ＰＡ或者ＷＩ或者ＭＩ中的一个，所以铁锈州们成了事实上的摇摆州。
所以拜登现在跑去Iowa，Harris去德州，被人诟病万一落选，这就是他的败招。 你已经有足够足够的票数了，巩固一下拿下的地盘不香么，非要去红区开疆拓土～～
四年前西婆在DC的支持率也是全国最高的，比NY还高
很好奇现在还会支持Trump的是什么人啊
现在焦点都在ＰＡ，不过最现实的可能性，选举当天，拜登拿下佛州，所有人就都可以安心睡觉，ＰＡ打成一锅粥都没关系了。
加州人啊
火星人
反正就是Trump 2016赢的哪几个原来Blue Wall的州吧, 加州纽约这些都不可能翻红，我经常觉得全国民调都不用做, 就做哪几个有决定性作用的州的poll就行了
MI 可能性还是有的，我LG有一帮在MI的朋友，4年前都是投的Trump，都是大学以上学历的白领。铁锈带这些年被全球化弄得很惨，Trump那一套四年前是很有市场的，今年不知道情况如何。MI最近疫情抬头倒是真的。
敲木鱼
典型微信推特川川雄文重度受害者，而且是晚期，目测接受的信息源包括但不仅限于大纪元，新唐人。。。还有啥谁来帮我补下
don't jinx it...
加入，敲木鱼+1
按照比例来看DC是民主党第一铁杆州，常年都是90:10的比分。。。
gnews, gtv...
就是川普总统rally上的人啊，好友很多挤不进去的人
16年trump拿了4%的DC选票，难怪周末常要飞去fl
一个全家老少乱伦的家族
一个出卖美国利益拿ccp脏钱的人
一个取消所有竞选活动的痴呆前期的老人
打算躺赢进白宫，是要在白宫乱伦吗？
这样的人能选上美国总统是美国的耻辱
其实这样的前副总统、总统候选人已经是冲击三观了
德州今年还是有点机会的。要是翻蓝，算是历史性的。所以花点精力也没好。 不过即使翻蓝，也只是总统选举而已。德州不少人从上到下都选和党，就是总统不选川普而已。
你去Google Natalie Biden pregnant
多少美国人热火朝天的讨论她给她叔的foot job
他们连畜生都不如，拜登前副总统一家是living trash
川普八月份开始就撤下ＭＩ的电视广告，基本放弃了。
哈哈，确定不是在说川普吗？他们一家人靠着总统捞了不少钱啊，该歇歇了。
DC是深深深蓝，所以他们争取 Senate representation 的努力总是被红州暴打
先把披萨门解释清楚吧！四年前的伎俩不新鲜了
还没成州，只有影子参议员，人口还多过Wyoming and Vermont。
拜登家族乱伦，和奥巴马收ccp黑钱
Youtube路德时评每天早晚在爆
gtv.org每个小时在爆
会看到你吐的
我脚着，还是喜国总统出来哭诉一下，想当年刚刚初来乍到逃亡到美国，不小心被拜登儿看上了.............省略五百行文字..............省略五百张私照..........省略五百分钟小视频.............
这样才有冲击力！
再次证明黄鼬造谣不打草稿的
你们这是统一文本么？你工友前面发过了。今年真是魔幻，没想到能看到常年用在天朝身上的这些手段用在美国国内的政治上。真是越来越low。
民主党挖了这么几年，也就挖出个付了钱的鸡。这是要全国人民给他们擦屁股吗？真够恶心的。
加州100%投Biden当然有用。如果打内战那个就是基础啊。
哈哈 我错了 原来是讲自己川主
别急，希拉里出卖美国利益也要进监狱
很好奇有多少這些支持者知道拜登兒子和他家未成年女成員不正當的事。要是因為左媒封鎖消息不知道還算個理由，要是知道了還支持，這些左x就太不是東西了。
黄鼬还真是只会躲在自己的世界里yy 你不看新闻吗
这几个大概都是郭文贵手下的喽啰， 怕他的那个网站点击率不够， 找人来吆喝让大家去增加流量的， 可能怕班农不高兴
去gtv.org有照片录像
仔细看看你拜登总统的光溜溜的好儿子，还有一起的好女儿，好孙女
我就纳闷，郭文贵这种中国人大幅度深入的介入美国总统选举，真的不违法吗？
这些名人黄色照片和录像，都是自带流量的
现在好奇的想看的都是美国人
更好笑的是现在的BLM游行口号Biden’s Laptop Matters
怎么可能不违法 这些轮子川粉们会被清算的
是的，这样的拜登能赢的话，真无语了。
五毛真是心心念要搞乱美国呀
美国人真的是连ccp病毒都不怕，会怕你们发动一帮傻子打内战？
傻子别把你组织上的秘密透露太多，
看什么新闻？pornhub在美国都是合法的。 上面恶心人的东西已经太多了。 民主党最恶心人的是专找儿童下手，觉得刺激。简直就和西藏的邪门歪佛一样，讲究特别的恶心。
五毛的梦里呗
又一个郭文贵派来骗流量的。前两天有人提这个网站，我还真去看了一下，就一个看不到脸的色情图片，就是你们的大料？
习包子让白手套叶简明给hunterbiden买豪宅送美金，然后再把叶简明杀掉才是违法
miles guo曝光你们的丑行，这是替天行道
当年数学天才（这个我没说反话，真是天才）陶哲轩还提出数学定理证明证明希拉里一定当选呢
不用在这装天真
你拜登总统儿子的脸你都不认识，怎么当五毛的
建立人类命运共同体，梦想全世界清算自己的敌人就是习包子最大的中国梦
你也跟着做梦，把清算挂嘴上，不愧文革余孽的同党
都4年了，她不还在蹦哒呢？好奇怪为什么 Trump 当选以后，什么披萨门啊 Killary啊，都不提了呢？
吹响什么号角的一个微信公众号 这个公众号特别瞎 他的确懂很多 但是真假掺着写 所以特别糊弄人
快点，麻利地把这些祸害儿童的坏人抓起来！
其实加州是超级重要的好么！人口第一大 众议院选区第一多 下面的小poll超级多的。。。 回头来说 这个就是州大做啊，给学生们研究室们一个机会。很多大学都搞的。看这个如果心里不舒服，不如看一看西佛吉尼亚阿拉巴马的。。。嗯。。。。
谢谢科普 加州提供了很好的较为干净的数据让学生啊研究者拿来用
另外latimes sfgate mercurynews也提供了几个proposition的poll：
反aa的基本稳了
rent control那个很可能没戏
Uber那个、还有工业房产按现值收税都是胶着状态
看这个：https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct27
昨天第一次T居然领先了，还好刚刚更新今天的数据Biden重新领先，怎么看？
beverly hills都搞挺川遊行，Can I change my vote大熱，拜登徹底完了，潮水都退了還在裸泳的只能說是智商欠費。
PA 票数20张， 但不好拿 也不算Biden 大本营， 东西两头 费城和匹兹堡深蓝， 中间和北面全是红色的阿拉巴马， 2016 以微弱优势翻红 今年比较糟糕的是 州法院判 邮寄选票 计票 到11/6， 而且不check 签名
你是清朝穿越过来的吗？哪来的这种自信。床铺的支持者的平均年收入比白等的多1W刀，到底没文化的人支持谁多？
当然是微信川粉群啦
because average is not a stable statistic
also money doesn’t equal education
i simply quoted the result of the study ...
538给它的评级是Ｃ＋，偏川普太多。 川普的job approval rate,其他民调常年负两位数，就他家是常年正数。 还有一个trafalgar，也是著名的挺川民调，评级是Ｃ－，
１６年成功预测川普当选声名鹊起的IBD/TIPP, 前两天报警说拜登领先跌到2,3点，这几天又回到了４，６点。 其他民调都在８－１０点左右。
Boost一下他们的士气嘛 别的就不说了 太残忍
我经常听川粉说，选总统又不是选圣人，现在总算能把这句话还给你们了，开心
你直接数据图甩他脸上好了，除了3w-7w5区间的白人，其他都是压倒性支持民主党
你去选一个儿子和孙女乱伦的总统，你开心就好
+1
川粉这智商竟然还谈三观？不是脑子都不要了吗？
两个垃圾咋选呢，这是不是体制问题，是不是体制问题？
关键是，通过两者间的重合可以发现， 没受过教育的白人男性，也能轻松混入这个区间， 而其他族裔的，只能再贫困线上挣扎， 正好说明了美国社会现在的racial injustice
数据有什么用 你看这个楼里面戳破他们翻红加州的梦想泡泡就歇斯底里的多少个。。。
我觉得这样刺眼的东西真没必要发给他们看了 长痛不如短痛 要痛下周一次就好了
你们能不能不要quote这种蛇精病的统一制式回复啊，看的都脏眼睛～～
1990年被强奸，2020才出来告，这是个智障吧
你去看看拜登各种啪啪的乱伦照片，你的眼睛不是脏的问题，是会瞎
赞角度新奇
没办法啊，他们一贯的马甲点赞点踩战术把那么辣眼睛的回复那么高，不批一下实在过不去。。。
比不上全世界你家习总加速师最有脑子、最有三观，对了，还有他的好buddy拜登总统也是，全家乱伦，但是超有三观，而且有脑子，黄色录像的laptop送去修竟然不知道送到了哪里修
还是梅姐聪明，这个帖子里面她就不说正事了～～
原来不想回这个的
实在是 太浓厚的 锅网红的味道了
太辣耳朵辣眼睛了
是的 是的 梅姐智慧
没看到什么啊。是不是删了。层主扔个Link？