什么她朋友。。。 Helmut Norpoth predicts a 91% chance of a Trump victory and predicts he will get 362 electoral votes https://finflam.com/archives/11666 Helmut Norpoth is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict US presidential elections.
什么她朋友。。。 Helmut Norpoth predicts a 91% chance of a Trump victory and predicts he will get 362 electoral votes https://finflam.com/archives/11666 Helmut Norpoth is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict US presidential elections.
Editorially, The Economist endorses both Republicans and Democrats in the United States. For example, the have endorsed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2016, while endorsing Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush in earlier elections.
16年预测对了吗？ 这还有27次各种选举25次预测对的，成功预测2016结果的模型，预测川普362对176 http://primarymodel.com/ The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter. In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.
人家给的拜登的选举人票中位数是343，川普是195
他们2016年预测了吗？
楼主朋友把自己的职业名誉放在外面，如果他是错的，基本这辈子职业到顶了。
他家其实预测不算保守也不算激进
偏向R的是Trafalgar 和Rasmussen
他们支持新自由主义的，就是里根，撒切尔夫人那些
没有
什么她朋友。。。
Helmut Norpoth predicts a 91% chance of a Trump victory and predicts he will get 362 electoral votes https://finflam.com/archives/11666
Helmut Norpoth is an American political scientist and professor of political science at Stony Brook University. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict US presidential elections.
哈哈哈哈哈lmfao
果真是有梦想谁都了不起
Rasmussen最近倒戈了，只有Trafalgar还在不停的给川普打气，今天新开出的是宾州拜登只＋２～～
真搞笑，你这个是3月份的预期，现在都10月，睡觉该醒了。
请问你有比较NDI 的结果吗，那个在2016 基本是唯一预测准确的。他家预测的标准比其他左右媒严谨很多。
经济学人一直很liberal, 他家一直很讨厌Trump, 从2016年大选就这个调调。
他们2016之后用的大数据，找了一个当时唯一几个预测准确的人之一的一个小孩，现在负责做这个model
Economist 偏保守？？什么时候转向的？
你说的是Elliott Morris么？
我觉得他还是不如Nate Silver
Morris 2018中期选举预测D-R 230:205，Nate Silver预测234：201
最终结果是235：199
Biden是生在PA，长在DE，这边的人都蛮喜欢他的。
经济学人保守派期刊？就差脱衣服了把。
反川普就等于不保守？那布什、罗姆尼是不是保守派？
经济学人还保守派？骗大妈吧。它就是一个左的不能再左的左派，从不看它家的。
16年预测对了吗？
这还有27次各种选举25次预测对的，成功预测2016结果的模型，预测川普362对176
http://primarymodel.com/
The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter. In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.
川粉还喜欢发：
我微信盆友圈
扯什么淡的大数据。不就是抽样调查吗？大数据管屁用。
这种东西最终的是无偏。大数据是有啥用啥，没有任何试验设计，得到的结论连偏差都不知道是多少，更谈不上标准差了。
所谓的大数据，就是从网络数据瞎折腾，因为数据基本免费。
按照Steve miller, 移民中的床粉必须自我驱逐出境才算真的。
只从16年之后开始就不怎么相信任何poll，预测。目的除了影响选民，nothing else的感觉。
川分就会发微信中文，我们投拜登的都看推特，英文信息绝对保真~
川粉连晒选票都是晒的中文选票，很接地气呢～～
用中文选票有啥问题不？不是说超过70%的华人投民主党吗？这里面有多少用中文选票的？
那是因为抽样调查做得不好。很多参数需要估计。 每几天就更新的抽样调查，做不起。
没问题，我是夸她们来着～～
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https://www.youtube.com/embed/tHsZxJlxHYw
https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/
Re, 说得好像唐人街那些吃福利的华人民主党支持者都懂英文似的
还有白人老公系列
都不出名的人，有什么职业声誉？
Economist偏保守派？我感觉它一直很左啊
2016年预测了啊、
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/11/08/hillary-clinton-has-got-this-probably-very-probably
希拉里只是probably very probably.
这个不是LZ朋友自己做的吧。 2016预测错的那些，不还继续在预测吗？
这么肯定的话都去下注吧，全部身家压下去，说不定就直接退休了。
只有左派才配得上虚伪的“任意项”
难道历史将会重演？2016希拉里好象比这个还高些。
这篇文章是11/08/2016.马后炮谁都会放。
這不是北京歡迎你的歌詞嗎？
看来川粉们都已经买好烟花准备庆祝接下来四年可以一直被叫chinese plague 了
估计真能让你蒙对一个。你也可以自称神预测了。
没错，经纪人杂志肯定不右。