https://nypost.com/2020/08/17/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why-james-altucher/ 一直觉得rental price降了很多，这周末查具体报告才发现1bd都降了1000多，真像这个报告里说的 “prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you.” New York City is dead forever By James Altucher August 17, 2020 | 4:16pm | Updated Author, comedy club owner and former hedge-fund manager James Altucher self-published this essay on Thursday, Aug. 13, under the title, “NYC is dead forever. Here’s why.” He granted the New York Post permission to reprint his piece in full below. I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. SEE ALSO NYC residents ramp up mass exodus out of Big Apple Now it’s completely dead. “But NYC always always bounces back.” No. Not this time. “But NYC is the center of the financial universe. Opportunities will flourish here again.” Not this time. “NYC has experienced worse.” No, it hasn’t. A Facebook group [Into The Unknown] formed a few weeks ago that was for people who were planning a move and wanted others to talk to and ask advice from. Within two or three days it had about 10,000 members. Every day I see more and more posts: “I’ve been in NYC forever but I guess this time I have to say goodbye.” I’ve been screenshotting them for my scrapbook. Enlarge ImageTimes Square and Midtown Manhattan were deserted in March. Getty Images Three of the most important reasons to move to NYC: business opportunities, culture and food. Commercial real estate and colleges are also suffering. And, of course, friends. But if everything I say below is even 1/10 of what I think then there won’t be as many opportunities to make friends. Business Midtown Manhattan, the center of business in NYC, is empty. Even though people can go back to work, famous office buildings like the Time Life skyscraper are still 90% empty. Businesses realized that they don’t need their employees at the office. In fact, they realize they are even more productive without everyone back to the office. The Time Life building can handle 8,000 workers. Now it maybe has 500 workers back. “What do you mean?” a friend of mine said to me when I told him, “Midtown should be called ‘Ghost Town’!” “I’m in my office right now!” “What are you doing there?” I asked. “Packing up,” he said and laughed, “I’m shutting it down.” He works in the entertainment business. Enlarge ImageMidtown’s iconic Rockefeller Center has been eerily quiet, even into the summer months. Getty Images Another friend of mine works at a major investment bank as a managing director. Before the pandemic he was at the office every day, sometimes working from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “As of June,” he told me, “I had never even been to Phoenix.” And then he moved there. He does all his meetings on Zoom. I was talking to a book editor who has been out of the city since early March. “We’ve been all working fine. I’m not sure why we would need to go back to the office.” One friend of mine, Derek Halpern, was convinced he’d stay. He put up a Facebook post the other day saying he might be changing his mind. Derek wrote:
In the last week: I watched a homeless person lose his mind and start attacking random pedestrians. Including spitting on, throwing stuff at, and swatting. I’ve seen several single parents with a child asking for money for food. And then, when someone gave them food, tossed the food right back at them. I watched a man yell racist slurs at every single race of people while charging / then stopping before going too far. And worse. I’ve been living in New York City for about 10 years. It has definitely gotten worse and there’s no end in sight. My favorite park is Madison Square Park. About a month ago, a 19-year-old girl was shot and killed across the street. I don’t think I have an answer, but I do think it’s clear: it’s time to move out of NYC. I’m not the only one who feels this way, either. In my building alone, the rent has plummeted almost 3% — more people are moving away than ever before. So … It’s not goodbye yet. But a lifelong New Yorker is thinking about it.
I pick his post out, but I could’ve picked one of dozens of others. People say, “NYC has been through worse” or “NYC has always come back.” No and no. First, when has NYC been through worse? Even in the 1970s, and through the ’80s, when NYC was going bankrupt, and even when it was the crime capital of the US or close to it, it was still the capital of the business world (meaning: it was the primary place young people would go to build wealth and find opportunity). It was culturally on top of its game — home to artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing. And it was probably the food capital of the US. SEE ALSO A mad rush for the exits as New York City goes down the tubes NYC has never been locked down for five months. Not in any pandemic, war, financial crisis, never. In the middle of the polio epidemic, when little kids (including my mother) were going paralyzed or dying (my mother ended up with a bad leg), NYC didn’t go through this.This is not to say what should have been done or should not have been done. That part is over. Now we have to deal with what is. In early March, many people (not me) left NYC when they felt it would provide safety from the virus and they no longer needed to go to work and all the restaurants were closed. People figured, “I’ll get out for a month or two and then come back.” They are all still gone. And then in June, during rioting and looting, a second wave of NYC-ers (this time me) left. I have kids. Nothing was wrong with the protests, but I was a little nervous when I saw videos of rioters after curfew trying to break into my building. Many people left temporarily but there were also people leaving permanently. Friends of mine moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas, etc. Enlarge ImageReal estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities. Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second- and third-tier cities. I’m temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen. My wife, Robyn, was looking at listings around Miami, and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. SEE ALSO NYC moms fleeing Upper Wild West Side amid spike in crime and chaos She called the real estate agent. Place #1. Just rented that morning 50% higher than the asking price. Place #2. Also rented — to New Yorkers (“They came from New York for three hours, saw the place, got it, went back to pack”). Place #3. “Available.”“We’ll take it!” The first time we physically saw it was when we flew down and moved in. “This is temporary, right?” I confirmed with Robyn. But … I don’t know. I’m starting to like the sun a little bit. I mean, when it’s behind the shades. And when I am in air-conditioning. But let’s move on for a second: Summary: Businesses are remote, and they aren’t returning to the office. And it’s a death spiral: The longer offices remain empty, the longer they will remain empty. In 2005, a hedge fund manager was visiting my office and said, “In Manhattan, you practically trip over opportunities in the street.” Now the streets are empty. Culture I co-own a comedy club, Standup NY, on West 78th and Broadway. I’m very very proud of the club and grateful to my fellow owners, Dani Zoldan and Gabe Waldman, and our manager, Jon Boreamayo. It’s a great club. It’s been around since 1986, and before that it was a theater. One time, Henry Winkler stopped by to come on my podcast. He was the one who told me it had been a theater. He said, “I grew up two doors down from here and used to perform in here as a kid. Then I went out to LA to be the Fonz and now I’m back here, full circle, to be on your podcast. This place has history.” Things like that happen in NYC. Enlarge ImageThe author meets Henry Winkler at his comedy club (before coronavirus). James Altucher In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan and many others have been on the stage. It’s only one step to get on the stage. Jim Gaffigan fell flat on his face while he was walking up the steps. The next day, on Seth Myers’ “Late Show,” Jim said, “I failed at the one thing you’re supposed to do — I couldn’t stand up!” I love the club. Before the pandemic, I would perform there throughout the week, in addition to many other clubs around the city. Also, in the [months before COVID-19], clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, LA, Cincinnati, all over the Netherlands and other places. I miss it. We had a show in May. An outdoor show. Everyone social distanced. But we were shut down by the police. I guess we were super-spreading humor during a very serious time. The club is doing something fun: They are doing shows outside in Central Park. This is a great idea. In a time like this, businesses need to give to the community, not complain and not take. That said, we have no idea when we will open. Nobody has any idea. And the longer we close, the less chance we will ever reopen profitably. Broadway is closed until at least the spring. Lincoln Center is closed. All the museums are closed. Enlarge ImageAll Broadway shows, even hits like “Hamilton,” are shuttered until 2021. Getty Images Forget about the tens of thousands of jobs lost in these cultural centers. Forget even about the millions of dollars of tourist and tourist-generated revenues lost by the closing of these centers. There are thousands of performers, producers, artists — and the entire ecosystem of art, theater, production and curation — that surrounds these cultural centers. People who have worked all of their lives for the right to be able to perform even once on Broadway whose lives and careers have been put on hold. I get it. There was a pandemic. But the question now is: What happens next? And, given the uncertainty (since there is no known answer), and given the fact that people, cities, economies loathe uncertainty, we simply don’t know the answer. And that’s a bad thing for New York City. Right now, Broadway is closed “at least until early 2021” and then there are supposed to be a series of “rolling dates” by which it will reopen. But is that true? We simply don’t know. And what does that mean? And will it have to be only 25% capacity? Broadway shows can’t survive with that! And will performers, writers, producers, investors, lenders, stagehands, landlords, etc. wait a year? Same for the museums, Lincoln Center and the thousand other cultural reasons millions come to New York City every year. Food The hot dog stands outside of Lincoln Center? Finished. SEE ALSO NYC will die if we don''t allow indoor dining in Midtown ASAP My favorite restaurant is closed for good. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. Closed for good. Third favorite, closed for good.I thought the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was supposed to help. No? What about emergency relief? No. Stimulus checks? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place I always ordered delivery from? No and no. Around late May, I took walks and saw that many places were boarded up. OK, I thought, because the protesting was leading to looting, and the restaurants were protecting themselves. They’ll be OK. Looking closer, I’d see the signs. For Lease. For Rent. For whatever. Before the pandemic, the average restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some had more (McDonald’s), and some had less (the local mom-and-pop Greek diner). Yelp estimates that 60% of restaurants around the United States have closed. My guess is more than 60% will be closed in New York City, but who knows. Someone said to me, “Well, people will want to come in now and start their own restaurants! There is less competition.” I don’t think you understand how restaurants work. Restaurants want other restaurants nearby. That’s why there’s one street in Manhattan (West 46th Street between Eighth and Ninth) called “Restaurant Row.” It’s all restaurants. That’s why there’s another street called “Little India” and another one called “Koreatown.” Enlarge ImageNew York’s Restaurant Row is just one beloved part of the city that may not survive COVID-19. Getty Images Restaurants happen in clusters, and then people say, “Let’s go out to eat!” And even if they don’t know where they want to eat, they go to the area where all the restaurants are. If the restaurants are no longer clustered, fewer people go out to eat. They are on the fence about where so they elect to stay home. Restaurants breed more restaurants. And again, what happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? I know a lot of people who went to upstate NY, Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, Indiana, etc. — back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone and gone for good. And what person wakes up today and says, “I can’t wait to set up a pizza place in the location where 100,000 other pizza places just closed down.” People are going to wait awhile and see. They want to make sure the virus is gone, or there’s a vaccine, or there’s a profitable business model. Commercial real estate If building owners and landlords lose their prime tenants — the storefronts on the bottom floor, the offices on the middle floors, the well-to-do on the top floors, etc. — then they go out of business. And what happens when they go out of business? Nothing, actually. And that’s the bad news. People who would have rented or bought say, “Hmmm, everyone is saying NYC is heading back to the 1970s, so even though prices might be 50% lower than they were a year ago, I think I will wait a bit more. Better safe than sorry!” SEE ALSO COVID-19 has broken NYC''s housing market And then with everyone waiting … prices go down. So people see prices go down and they say, “Good thing I waited. But what happens if I wait even more?” And they wait, and then prices go down more.This is called a deflationary spiral. People wait. Prices go down. Nobody really wins. Because the landlords or owners go broke. Less money gets spent on the city. Nobody moves in, so there is no motion in the markets. And people who already own in the area, who can afford to hang on, have to wait longer for a return of restaurants, services, etc. that they were used to. Well, will prices go down low enough everyone buys? Answer: Maybe. Maybe not. Some people can afford to hang on but not afford to sell. So they wait. Other people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which creates other problems for real estate in the area. And the big borrowers and lenders may need a bailout of some sort or face mass bankruptcy. Who knows what will happen? Colleges There are almost 600,000 college students spread out through NYC. From Columbia to NYU to Baruch, Fordham, St. John’s, etc. Will they require remote learning? Will kids be on campus? It turns out: a little bit of both. Some colleges are waiting a semester to decide, some are half and half, some are optional. But we know this — there is uncertainty, and there is hybrid. I don’t know of any college fully coming back right away. That’s OK, you might say, so in a semester or two it might be fine. Enlarge ImageColumbia is the latest university to announce it will conduct the fall 2020 semester remotely. Getty Images Not so fast. Let’s say just 100,000 of those 600,000 don’t return to school and decide not to rent an apartment in New York City. That’s a lot of apartments that will go empty. That’s a lot of landlords who will not be able to pay their own bills. Many bought those student apartments as a way to make a living. So now it ripples back to the landlords, to the support staff, to the banks, to the professors, etc. In other words, we don’t know. But it’s going to be a lot worse before it’s better. OK, OK, but NYC always comes back … Yes, it does. I lived three blocks from Ground Zero on 9/11. Downtown, where I lived, was destroyed, but it came roaring back within two years. Such sadness and hardship — and then, quickly, that area became the most attractive area in New York. And in 2008 and 2009, there was much suffering during the Great Recession, and again much hardship, but things came roaring back. But this time it’s different. You’re never supposed to say that, but this time it’s true. If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient — I really hope you’re right. I don’t benefit from saying any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I’ve lived there forever. I STILL live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time it’s different. One reason: bandwidth. Enlarge ImageInternet speed is no longer a barrier to remote work. Statista 2020 In 2008, average bandwidth speeds were 3 megabits per second. That’s not enough for a Zoom meeting with reliable video quality. Now, it’s over 20 megabits per second. That’s more than enough for high-quality video. There’s a before and after. Before: no remote work. After: everyone can remote work. The difference: bandwidth got faster. And that’s basically it. People have left New York City and have moved completely into virtual worlds. The Time-Life building doesn’t need to fill up again. Wall Street can now stretch across every street instead of just being one building in Manhattan. We are officially AB: After Bandwidth. And for the entire history of NYC (and the world) until now, we were BB: Before Bandwidth. Remote learning, remote meetings, remote offices, remote performance, remote everything. That’s what is different. Everyone has spent the past five months adapting to a new lifestyle. Nobody wants to fly across the country for a two-hour meeting when you can do it just as well on Zoom. I can go see “live comedy” on Zoom. I can take classes from the best teachers in the world for almost free online as opposed to paying $70,000 a year for a limited number of teachers who may or may not be good. Everyone has choices now. You can live in the music capital of Nashville, you can live in the “next Silicon Valley” of Austin. You can live in your hometown in the middle of wherever. And you can be just as productive, make the same salary, have higher quality of life with a cheaper cost. And what would make you come back? There won’t be business opportunities for years. SEE ALSO These New Yorkers fleeing coronavirus vow they''ll never return Businesses move on. People move on. It will be cheaper for businesses to function remotely — and bandwidth is only getting faster.Wait for events and conferences and even meetings and maybe even office spaces to start happening in virtual realities once everyone has spread out from Midtown Manhattan to all over the country. The quality of restaurants will start to go up in all the second- and then third-tier cities as talent and skill flow to the places that can quickly make use of them. Ditto for cultural events. And then people will ask, “Wait a second — I was paying over 16% in state and city taxes and these other states and cities have little to no taxes? And I don’t have to deal with all the other headaches of NYC?” Because there are headaches in NYC. Lots of them. It’s just we sweep them under the table because so much else has been good there. NYC has a $9 billion deficit. A billion more than the mayor thought it was going to have. How does a city pay back its debts? The main way is aid from the state. But the state deficit just went bonkers. Another way is taxes. But if 900,000 estimated jobs are lost in NYC and tens of thousands of businesses, then that means less revenue from taxes — unless taxes are raised. Enlarge ImageMuch of the city’s revenue comes from taxes, which will see serious pressure due to people relocating as well as a dramatically reduced number of real estate and other transactions. https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/james-altucher-nyc-budget-chart-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all New York City Comptroller Yet another way to pay back debt is tolls from the tunnels and bridges. But fewer people are commuting to work. Well, how about the city-owned colleges? Fewer people are returning to college. Well, how about property taxes? More people defaulting on their properties. What reason will people have to go back to NYC? I love my life in NYC. I have friends all over. People I’ve known for decades. I could go out of my apartment and cross the street and there was my comedy club — and I can go up on stage and perform. I could go a few minutes by Uber and meet with anyone or go play ping-pong or go to a movie or go on a podcast — and people traveling through could come on my podcast. I could go out at night to my favorite restaurants and then see my favorite performers perform. I could go to the park and play chess. I could take advantage of all this wonderful city has to offer. No more. FILED UNDERCORONAVIRUS IN NY, CULTURE, OPINION, RESTAURANTS, 8/17/20
感觉纽约人还是对纽约有感情的，就算是黑人和西裔，感觉也是把纽约当家的。虽然脏了点，流浪汉多了点，但说实话，打砸抢还是比较节制的，就最开始那一晚有。 现在penn station 那里已经很多人在逛街了，好多黑人在排队买打折的鞋。outdoor dining经常椅子都座满了，晚上9点以后人们还在大拍档喧哗热闹，隐约有疫情前的影子。公交和地铁还是没人坐，估计因为大家都在家上班。可以说除了上班，吃喝购物都恢复一些了。
能别这样整天一惊一乍的吗。最讨厌这种哗众取宠的文章。疫情一好，很多人会想去。NYC is the dream for many, 金融那些follow the money 的地地方也还是在纽约。大部分人都是follow the money fadeintoyou 发表于 2020-08-24 17:23
你真是不了解税收啊。 先不说纽约的property tax, mansion tax, transfer tax, sales tax都比加州高。 就说individual income tax ,纽约很多人有ca sourced income, their marginal salt rate is 13.3 + 3.9=17.2% 还有纽约有charitable deduction phase out. 华人喜欢说的有钱人捐款就是避税起码对纽约富人ny salt tax是不省税的。纽约富人真的是用真金白银学雷锋做好事。 纽约对各种passthrough deduction也非常严格。你看连川总这样的聪明人，几十年不交fed tax,也得乖乖的交ny salt taxes.
你真是不了解税收啊。 先不说纽约的property tax, mansion tax, transfer tax, sales tax都比加州高。 就说individual income tax ,纽约很多人有ca sourced income, their marginal salt rate is 13.3 + 3.9=17.2% 还有纽约有charitable deduction phase out. 华人喜欢说的有钱人捐款就是避税起码对纽约富人ny salt tax是不省税的。纽约富人真的是用真金白银学雷锋做好事。 纽约对各种passthrough deduction也非常严格。你看连川总这样的聪明人，几十年不交fed tax,也得乖乖的交ny salt taxes. 大衣被禁 发表于 2020-08-25 12:18
没在NY买房，但似乎岛上的property tax低，物业费高，岛外property tax高。 CA sourced income先交13.3%，不能怨NYC呀，要怨CA呀 税收不熟，所以搜索了以下： NY 1M以下是6.85%，以上8.82%, 消费税8.8% CA 350K之后是11.3%，590K以上12.3%，1M以上13.3%，消费税9%。
一直觉得rental price降了很多，这周末查具体报告才发现1bd都降了1000多，真像这个报告里说的 “prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you.” New York City is dead forever By James Altucher August 17, 2020 | 4:16pm | Updated
Author, comedy club owner and former hedge-fund manager James Altucher self-published this essay on Thursday, Aug. 13, under the title, “NYC is dead forever. Here’s why.” He granted the New York Post permission to reprint his piece in full below. I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. I could start any type of business. I could meet people. I had family, friends, opportunities. No matter what happened to me, NYC was a net I could fall back on and bounce back up. SEE ALSO
Enlarge ImageReal estate data shows the number of people fleeing New York for other cities.
Now a third wave of people are leaving. But they might be too late. Prices are down 30-50% on both rentals and sales, no matter what real estate people tell you. And rentals soaring in the second- and third-tier cities. I’m temporarily, although maybe permanently, in South Florida now. I also got my place sight unseen. My wife, Robyn, was looking at listings around Miami, and then she saw an area we had never been to before. We found three houses we liked. SEE ALSO
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纽约不是被millennials 吹上了天。纽约确实把一波又一波的年轻人“骗去”贡献青春，但这一百多年来就是这样了。很多人来纽约追求梦想，只有1%的人能成功，但一代一代的年轻人还是为了这个前赴后继。
但是大家都觉得不安全。我们楼有个女的，晚上九点多回家，在楼门口被抢了包，门口摄像头都拍下来了，doorman追出去，那人还很嚣张的两手一摊说：what do you want? what can you do?
08年对纽约的冲击远没有这次大。这次很多很多公司都在考虑搬离NYC，有的会让至少一部分人长期WFH，有的在考虑在郊区建satellite office，有的甚至考虑整个搬到low cost地区。工作走了，工作的人群不回来了，地产餐饮娱乐各行各业都会受到冲击。
https://www.bhsusa.com/real-estate-agent/roberto-cabrera
是这位。 我觉得他人很好。从来不催我们。我们low ball offer 都帮我们递了。然后我问他他就直说，有点低应该加多少，事实上他说的也是对的。而且比较诚实，有什么问题也会指出来。也会跟seller agent陶瓷。 但是我们没走到过offer accepted这步后来怎么样我就不知道了。
曼哈顿私立也是一大吸引力。顶级私立今年搬出城的确实比往年多一点点，但是大部分90%的人还是继续留在城里的。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
美国体质的好处就是几年一次的纠错功能，还有换人的机会。
20m的16年以后就降了
2m以上在去年年中增加mansion tax后也都降了
pandemic以来1m的真的都降了
纽约还用唱衰？张眼睛的都能看出来。
应该不会变成底特律， 毕竟还是金融中心， 美国的核心竞争力。
不过会向下走一段时间
上一次是靠老朱铁腕把纽约拉回来
伦敦不知道 东京可比纽约好多了
有点触底反弹的意思
一人一票，人数摆在那里，没戏的啦。 过几年如果AOC这种出来选市长，可以秒杀其他候选人
至多只要划出几个治安还能忍受的区就行了， 芝加哥这种天天枪击的希特厚，不也一堆对冲基金跟交易所挤在那里，是第二金融中心么。
一人一票也选出了Giuliani, Bloomberg不是嘛。白思豪的唯一贡献就是团结了纽约人。很多人都说后悔选他，给了他们教训。上次选市长投票率奇低，因为都觉得无所谓，明年选举我看要挤破头。 AOC 那个选区才多大啊，能代表纽约5区吗？
那就见仁见智了。毕竟纽约世界第一大都市。
说明nyc再烂，也比弯曲强那么一点。。。 lol
高科技是未来发展方向，整个东岸稍微能吸引点年轻高科技工程师的也就只有纽约了。。 北卡这种地方还是太农村了点。。
很同意bandwidth那段，现在都是加速强迫进入适应After Bandwidth 。随着金融去中心化，媒体去中心化，也许现在又开启了都市去中心化的步伐。
纠结呀，正想在曼哈顿买房呢，现在也不敢动手。又担心像故事一样，分分钟反弹以后更买不起了。
人口组成已经决定了。过了可以回头的点了。纽约黑墨木华人偷渡党占了70%以上的人口。
东京伦敦也在大街上刷blm?
川普大厦前那个BLM 从媒体照片上看很醒目很大，因为媒体照片从上空拍的。你从第五大道看实物，其实每那么触目惊心，不在路中央，在靠近川普大厦的路边，纯粹就是为了恶心trump.如果有了这个sign 就能让黑人老实下来，其实是就经济实惠的方法。
社会救济如何?
英国和日本并不是移民国家。同时伦敦并不欢迎穷人。伦敦的生活费用比纽约高多了。
这个版上的主旋律，唱衰纽约，唱衰湾区，唱衰中国，全世界只有美国大农村红脖区适合人类居住。
有房产在NYC吧？
呵呵，打砸抢的不管还想绥靖？西雅图波特兰现在闹到威斯康星了，你看最后啥时候老实下来。法律不管用的时候，最吃亏的就是华人
富人可以离开的，很多已经离开了，干嘛跟纽约死磕。疫情下大家发现可以长期在家工作，对这些大城市是致命打击。
Sad. It was a great city to live.
做梦都想呀
多谢分享
言论自由。纽约就是这样让人喜欢
多好的机会抄底，话放这儿，the virus will be over and nyc will be back
谁敢去喷个ALM或者Blue lives matter?
纽约富人多从事金融行业，怎么可能跑？最多就是去second home呆一阵，最近很多都回城了。
地铁也分线路，像7号线基本都坐满了
现在就是传统游客区人少，居民区早就无恙无恙的人了，跑步的，遛狗的，闲逛的，餐馆的桌子都搬到户外，每天晚上坐的满当当的。
AOC 选个屁，上次把Amazon赶走了，民调80%的纽约人讨厌她
这是两个命题。纽约/湾区还是中西部更宜居，见仁见智的问题。楼主贴的blog的意思是，纽约作为全美第一都市，在这次疫情+BLM的冲击下，富人纷纷逃离，随着WFH越来越普及，这些逃离的富人能不能最终回来是个未知数。如果，回不来，纽约作为全美第一都市，再也难现昔日繁华，也是注定的。
这些税加起来没有加州的最高13.3%州税高。
WFH不会有什么冲击的，人是需要交流的，现在无非就是进步人士裹挟全国陪共产党撒臆症而已；真正的冲击是来自BLM
1967年的騷亂被認為是底特律由盛轉衰的分水嶺，事後有大量相對富裕的白人居民遷出底特律，造成底特律經濟轉差，地方政府稅收減少，此又引致政府投放在市政服務和建設的資金減少，最終後果是造成更多富人遷出，形成惡性循環。 2020年纽约年的騷亂被認為是纽约由盛轉衰的分水嶺，事後有大量相對富裕的白人居民遷出纽约， 可以预见50年或者在更短的时间，未来的纽约就是今天的巴尔的摩。 佩洛西的父亲托马斯·担任巴尔的摩市市长达12年之久。佩洛西的一个哥哥也曾在上世纪六、七十年代出任巴尔的摩市市长， 后来他们把巴尔的摩的权力给予几位黑人市长。 1973年，科尔曼·扬（英语：Coleman Young）成为底特律历史上第一位黑人市长 2017年巴尔的摩市长“这座城市的犯罪已经失控，我已经很烦躁了。”皮尤（Catherine Pugh） 如果民主党继续， 2027年加州长可能会说“这个加州的犯罪已经失控，我已经很烦躁了。”。。。。。现在的加州， 基本上已经距离失控不远了。。。。还有 西雅图， 波特兰， 明尼苏达州。。。。。
路遥知马力日久见人心， 民主党领导美国这些城市 的发展历史 难道 还不能够让我们 明白 民主党执政的后果 是什么吗？
后果就是 曾经繁荣，发达的现代化文明的城市 变成为废墟，到处是断垣残壁，千疮百孔，满目疮痍 几乎没有玻璃的窗户！ 绝大多数都是砖头取代！！！到处是污秽，肮脏，破败，涂鸦满街，老鼠成群，蟑螂遍地， 暴力频频，毒品泛滥， 腐败与暴力在路上，街头 横行霸道。。。 这是民主党执政让给美国人民看到的未来与希望
而共和党 鲁迪·朱利安尼执政期间， 纽约的政府管理就完全不同。
你又不是富人更不知道富人咋想的，大乡下有broadway有met有餐馆吗
还是有降价的，总有fianncially stressed的
broadway 一年不开张，还能撑下去吗
你真是不了解税收啊。 先不说纽约的property tax, mansion tax, transfer tax, sales tax都比加州高。 就说individual income tax ,纽约很多人有ca sourced income, their marginal salt rate is 13.3 + 3.9=17.2% 还有纽约有charitable deduction phase out. 华人喜欢说的有钱人捐款就是避税起码对纽约富人ny salt tax是不省税的。纽约富人真的是用真金白银学雷锋做好事。
纽约对各种passthrough deduction也非常严格。你看连川总这样的聪明人，几十年不交fed tax,也得乖乖的交ny salt taxes.
总有人来的，你指望virus毁了纽约就和五毛指望virus毁了美国一样道理
virus come & go. BLM come.
没在NY买房，但似乎岛上的property tax低，物业费高，岛外property tax高。
CA sourced income先交13.3%，不能怨NYC呀，要怨CA呀
税收不熟，所以搜索了以下： NY 1M以下是6.85%，以上8.82%, 消费税8.8% CA 350K之后是11.3%，590K以上12.3%，1M以上13.3%，消费税9%。
Andrew Yang 是目前的热门人选， 但版面上的中年妇女好像都是见不得亚裔好的
求推荐经纪人
一人一票 按住羊将被AOC秒成渣毫无还手之力
纽约问题根本不在病毒上。
不一定。
你要说中产，那你有valid point，但是，哭魔州长哭着喊着给做饭也不知道能不能请回来的富人，人家去MET参加个活动，直升飞机来直升飞机走啊，不要被贫穷限制想象力。至于broadway，等到重新开了再说吧！
我就是金融行业的，没有多少人回城了。现在回来的几乎都是20出头的junior，因为不想长期在父母家窝着。 partner一个tier的还是在郊区住着，偶尔回办公室可以有直升机commute，中层有家有娃的大多数都走了还真有很大部分没打算回来。
很多人没有概念觉得金融业员工对NYC税收贡献特别大。其实查查数据吧，40%的tax revenue是前0.7%的人贡献的。金融业从业人员的收入大概在前15%-1%那个segment，这些金融业人员加起来的税收贡献还不及前0.7%
是的，所以Carl Icahn等人跑路，对NY打击才是最大的。
中产无非是跟着工作跑，工作如果转移了或者大规模WFH变成主流，人也跟着走了
我是你所谓的搞金融的，我们是喜欢社交，但是我们已经开始virtual happy hour (最低级就是各自准备酒），virtual business lunch/dinner (从高级餐厅点菜送去各自的地方），还有virtual wine tasting （要提前两周送给每个人一箱酒然后集中品），还有行业里面的各种插画啊烹饪啊艺术品event都已经virtual了。现在想想比较难virtualize的是以前喜欢在博物馆搞晚宴这种活动，不过再隔一两个月他们想出其他什么招都不奇怪。
NYC city income tax4% flat
... https://www.businessinsider.com/richest-people-in-new-york-ranked-2019-4#1-michael-bloomberg-22 你的意思是top 0.1% 里面的这些个超过50%金融业的不算是金融从业人士？
她可能不住在纽约市对纽约市的cost 没啥概念
我朋友搞金融孩子都上顶私的，没有一个搬走的。有的租了房最近都回来了。有的根本没走，老开会呢。
我的意思是绝大多数的金融从业人员的收入达不到0.7%的标准。绝大多数金融从业人员的收入还是在100k-1m之间这点没说错吧。
我以前也觉得买套曼哈顿的公寓梦想，后来买了，只能说呵呵
老开会也是Zoom会，我没见到一个机构现在host与外界的会议的。
顶级私校是很难进，而且很多是in person semester until好像November吧，所以一些家长还是决定先送去看下情况，毕竟好不容易挤破头进去的。（你要让他们几个月内放弃顶私的学籍还是不容易的，因为一般一个小孩进去了，兄弟姐妹会被优先考虑，但是remote learning和wfh的时间长了就不一定了）
城里的有钱人是第一批跑走的 现在都纷纷回来了 因为娃要开学了
agreed!
但是这是疫情期间,疫情结束了.,我才不相信你们还会喜欢virtual meeting.
有的，还是每周去办公室的。
去办公室我知道肯定有，但是和外界机构开in person meeting吗？
可能跟你不是一个类别的金融领域吧
你这种人也就这点本领了，指望别人倒霉自己显得没那么惨，可惜腻总是事与愿违啊
最有流动性的就是富人啊，都说了你指望virus还不如指望海平面上涨吧纽约淹了呢，真不明白一堆不住纽约的人每天这么操心黑纽约干嘛，有short nyc的futures 有的话赶紧去买啊
这话说的，我可没希望纽约明天就被水淹了，我不过指出这个blog的观点是个possibility而已，至于会不会变成reality，only time will tell。怎么到你眼里就是巴不得纽约明天就完蛋了呢？！