可以看看这个网站对佛州的分析，等着看预测会不会准 https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-turning-the-corner/ Analysis Observations Florida residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk. There was little reduction in mobility in response to the summer surge in July. Over 25% of Florida residents have likely been infected by mid August. Infection rates are high among individuals in the 20-40 age range, ~35% in mid August. Total deaths are ultimately be ~750/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million) Death rates continue are strongly biased toward elderly populations. Florida's elderly demographic pushes the overall death rate higher than younger states. The Infection Fatality Rate is currently in the range of 0.25% and will rise if elderly become active too early. Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections. Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity threshold; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected. Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations. The summer surge will die out in the fall, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected. Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.
大家都转战德州去了啊
https://covidplanningtools.com/florida-turning-the-corner/
Analysis Observations Florida residents are generally modulating their behavior in proportion to risk. There was little reduction in mobility in response to the summer surge in July. Over 25% of Florida residents have likely been infected by mid August. Infection rates are high among individuals in the 20-40 age range, ~35% in mid August. Total deaths are ultimately be ~750/million (compare to NYC ~2,800/million, Sweden ~750/million) Death rates continue are strongly biased toward elderly populations. Florida's elderly demographic pushes the overall death rate higher than younger states. The Infection Fatality Rate is currently in the range of 0.25% and will rise if elderly become active too early. Returning children to school and extracurricular activities do not cause a significant increase in deaths or infections. Risk proportional mobility lowers herd immunity threshold; reached when 40-50% of 20-40 year olds are infected. Vulnerable and elderly populations are at risk and should continue to take precautions and avoid high risk situations. The summer surge will die out in the fall, we will not see a returning infection peak if elderly and vulnerable are protected. Improvements in therapeutic methods have significantly reduced the mortality rate, we assume a 40% reduction since March.
这两州加起来死亡率都赶不上纽约 看来大州抗疫这本书是没脸写了
不要这么低估库默的脸皮厚度。