https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1287701179313426437 Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC "It looks like AZ, TX, and probably FL at the very least are starting to hit a plateau," says @ScottGottliebMD on #COVID-19 hotspots. "Even as these states come down other states look like they are heating up and so they''ll start to offset the gains we are making in the sunbelt." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html KEY POINTS For the first time since June 12, the rate of growth in average daily new Covid-19 cases fell across the U.S. on Sunday compared with a week ago. Nationally, there were an average of 65,809 daily new cases on Sunday, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week, based on a seven-day moving average. U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said Monday that officials are starting to see a leveling-off of cases in hard-hit states due to people “stepping up to the plate.”
口罩是最简单有效的阻断传播的工具,数据都有显示这有啥可怀疑的?最近两个密苏里的理发师确诊感染新冠,140个客人没有一例传染,都戴口罩。Two compelling case reports also suggest that masks can prevent transmission in high-risk scenarios, said Chin-Hong and Rutherford. In one case, a man flew from China to Toronto and subsequently tested positive for COVID-19. He had a dry cough and wore a mask on the flight, and all 25 people closest to him on the flight tested negative for COVID-19. In another case, in late May, two hair stylists in Missouri had close contact with 140 clients while sick with COVID-19. Everyone wore a mask and none of the clients tested positive. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent 戴口罩和保持社交距离那么简单的道理,就是有人不愿意,说到底就是自私和心存侥幸。讨厌死了
口罩是最简单有效的阻断传播的工具,数据都有显示这有啥可怀疑的?最近两个密苏里的理发师确诊感染新冠,140个客人没有一例传染,都戴口罩。Two compelling case reports also suggest that masks can prevent transmission in high-risk scenarios, said Chin-Hong and Rutherford. In one case, a man flew from China to Toronto and subsequently tested positive for COVID-19. He had a dry cough and wore a mask on the flight, and all 25 people closest to him on the flight tested negative for COVID-19. In another case, in late May, two hair stylists in Missouri had close contact with 140 clients while sick with COVID-19. Everyone wore a mask and none of the clients tested positive. https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent 戴口罩和保持社交距离那么简单的道理,就是有人不愿意,说到底就是自私和心存侥幸。讨厌死了 commander 发表于 2020-07-27 19:23
https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1287701179313426437 Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC "It looks like AZ, TX, and probably FL at the very least are starting to hit a plateau," says @ScottGottliebMD on #COVID-19 hotspots. "Even as these states come down other states look like they are heating up and so they''ll start to offset the gains we are making in the sunbelt." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html KEY POINTS For the first time since June 12, the rate of growth in average daily new Covid-19 cases fell across the U.S. on Sunday compared with a week ago. Nationally, there were an average of 65,809 daily new cases on Sunday, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week, based on a seven-day moving average. U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said Monday that officials are starting to see a leveling-off of cases in hard-hit states due to people “stepping up to the plate.”
Squawk Box
@SquawkCNBC
"It looks like AZ, TX, and probably FL at the very least are starting to hit a plateau," says @ScottGottliebMD on #COVID-19 hotspots. "Even as these states come down other states look like they are heating up and so they''ll start to offset the gains we are making in the sunbelt."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/27/coronavirus-outbreak-show-signs-of-slowing-in-arizona-texas-and-florida.html
KEY POINTS For the first time since June 12, the rate of growth in average daily new Covid-19 cases fell across the U.S. on Sunday compared with a week ago. Nationally, there were an average of 65,809 daily new cases on Sunday, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week, based on a seven-day moving average. U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar said Monday that officials are starting to see a leveling-off of cases in hard-hit states due to people “stepping up to the plate.”
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你这个只能说明最近一周的还在reporting pipeline里面不能下结论吧 好看一周前的数据
老川既然自豪于“美国有着最好的死亡率”,为啥还要求医院不再将数据报给cdc?有点矛盾
blm基本都戴口罩,但是锅还是要背。
trump rally以不戴口罩为荣,俄州州长rally回去就确诊,但是都可以选择性无视
参照纽约
这个2%有依据吗?
🛋️ 沙发板凳
没事,猪党这周末有来了一拨多点大的blm 又有数字补充了。
不重要,重要的是达到群免需要多久以及需要死多少人,比如纽约迅速达到群免,但付出的是1700 death per million的代价,接下来就看这些南方州了。
一个重要的标尺是完全不lock down并已经基本群免的国家瑞典,付出的代价是600 death per million
周末拐点,看到现在也应该知道这个 pattern了吧。
虽然俺是很期待真有拐点的。
好像阳性率下降了
大家那的xx,死亡数据周末延迟,确诊数据没啥延迟。当然你看不懂也正常。
要结合住院数据一起看。AZ下行的趋势已经很明显了,群体免疫即将达成。德州上周的数量好像比上上周少那么一点点,再观察几天才能确定。FL暂时还看不出来。不过佛州爆发也比德州晚一周左右,过两周再说。
唯一奇怪的是加州,停工停课最早,口罩也戴了,该关的也关了,疫情还是一眼望不到头,而且这两天好像游行和打砸抢又开始了。。。。。
补充一句,亚利桑那最终能够控制成什么样对美国的下半年意义极为重大,因为这是第一个没有全面停工,只靠戴口罩、限制高危行业和群体免疫,成功把疫情减缓下来的州。
加州和德州差不多,确诊增长曲线已经向下了,但死人数都是200 death per million,远低于瑞典的600,我估计有些岁数大的可能还是会死,但应该会以低于瑞典的数据结束
AZ的死亡人数是多少?感觉他们的下降趋势已经很明显了
az 不到500 death per million,跟全美平均一样,不到500,我估计美国群免会以瑞典类似的数据结束,600左右,结论就是lock down和blm cancel掉了,相当于啥都没干的瑞典
佛州看死亡数的话,拐点是在7月16/17号。
因为测试能力就是9000。
马上就快超过加州成为全美第一了... 请问拐点在哪儿?
他很厉害。年初就警告政府
我同意,住院数据更接近实时,tmc的住院率是明显低了。德州现在是边境county更严重,但整个州总体看起来还是往好的方向走发展的。
笑死了,要是反了就糟了
是的,我看到的不少数据是支持佛州死亡peak应该已经过了一两周左右,最近很多数据都是之前滞后的report
他是前cdc的头儿吧
有没有按死亡日期的report而不是按报告日期的
佛州日新增前一阵一直是超过1万,请问你测试能力是9000的结论是如何得出的
推特上有不少人自己做图表,这是其中一个佛州的数据report date和actual date的对比。
AZ per capita已经超过NY,NJ了,基本达到实质上的群面了。
不好这么说,ny大规模感染的时候测试力度不行,好多人得了之后好了根本进不了统计,az这时候已经基本是想测就能测了,ny等到能测就测的时候好多人都痊愈了,所以ny的实际感染人次比例有可能高得多
加州不会下去的,已经定居在华山之腰了。到了劳动节,FL, TX, AZ就都笑傲江湖了,发愁的就是VA, DC, MD, PA, IL, OH这些新热点了。
测试能力就是9000,那不是阳性率100%?只要阳性率不到100%,那么测试能力到顶的阳性率就会稳步上升。。。
但是ICU跟呼吸机是假不了的,哭魔啥时候开始再哭呼吸机啊?
不对,佛州每天能测十万人,看报告。
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
周末不一定会迎来下行,但是下行总是从周末开始的。一旦周二没爆,那七天平均值就会明显下降。当然啊,我不是预测明天一定不爆。
所以现在分析数据都是按7-day movement的
我们州现在把First test跟repeated test分开标注,有30%左右是repeated
他是共和党
感觉在美国怎么戴个口罩这么难?我觉得AZ戴口罩情况比较好
不对,在停课和关闭高危场所,大部分人戴口罩的情况下,易感人群的比例不是百分之百,所以群体免疫不需要60%的人感染,把容易成为传染源的那一部分人感染掉就行了。瑞典现在的情况就是群体免疫。
你再吓唬人,瑞典已经早就已经死人个位数了,继续吧
还有一点,瑞典只是测出了7%感染,这还没考虑没测的无症状携带者呢
口罩到目前为止其实还没有研究证明对新冠特别有用,加州戴口罩比其他州好很多,但是加州病例马上要超纽约了,全国第一,但是加州死亡率低。日本人戴口罩也戴的好,但是很多人在说日本其实阳性率人群中5-10%。日本新冠死亡率很低。
Looks like FL has flatten the curve, people! ... ... ... ... flattening at 10k line
平的就是平的,基数多大是另外一码事。佛州其实比我预想的要好很多,因为佛州真的是老人圣地,以前在中西部开车,会看到不少开的比较慢的,车牌上带橘子的车南下,里面坐着老夫妻两人。
这是对拐点有什么误解?
我们州三月底以来超市里人人戴口罩,之前是每天新增病例数惊人,低迷了一两星期后,现在又上千了。戴口罩有没有用?有多少用?真不好说。
怀疑猪党为了防止新冠被控制,每次数字下跌就无缝隙配合打砸抢让数字回升
戴口罩和保持社交距离那么简单的道理,就是有人不愿意,说到底就是自私和心存侥幸。讨厌死了
不能这么简单的下结论说口罩没有大用吧。身处加州,的确感觉这里的人戴口罩很自觉了,出去买东西,只要是室内,几乎全部口罩加各种注意social distance。但是,影响新冠感染数字的并不只是口罩一个因素呀。不知道为什么加州不停的在爆。
得过两三周再回来看这个表里的july20-july27吧 可能不断有后续补充
每日阳性新增已经全面下降了,AZ最早开始走下坡路,已经离巅峰过去21天了。FL和TX都开始往下拐了。 AZ的死亡峰值比阳性滞后了整整15天,最近才刚开始下行。TX和FL整体比AZ滞后,所以死亡还没开始下行通道。 数据是平滑过的,不存在周末效应。
如果没有警察在路上抓超速,绝大多数人都会超速。如果没有警察去抓聚会,绝大多数人都会聚会。嘴上禁聚会有屁用,现在警察可不管不了聚会这种破事。游行还没消停呢,各种犯罪借着游行牵扯警察精力在那儿飙升,警察都被defund了,还能抓杀人放火就仁至义尽了。
戴口罩就是减缓病毒扩散。但是光戴口罩别的不干,能不能把R0降到1以下?我觉得基本上不太可能。扩散减缓的结果就是时间拖得更长,curve特别flatten,但是总感染人数不见得会有区别。加州的curve就特别flatten,但是靠着人口基数照样可以感染人数全美第一。别的州都消停了,加州还可以继续缠缠绵绵到天涯。
滞后是肯定的,只能继续观察
德州和佛州都很大,未必就只有一个波峰,再看一两周才能下结论。前一段因为举行“国葬”爆的最狠的休斯顿这两天已经缓解一点了,但是德州边境的一些县情况还非常严重,直接把重病号送回家等死。
感觉定没有警力抓聚会,只能靠民众自觉
强制开学后, 又要 ‘拐“上去了!
周日, 周一从来都是报告数据最低的两天!
本周四, 死亡人数又是创新高, 你等着吧!
你这么不说举行Tulsa 集会的OKLAHOMA 连连破确诊记录呢?
强制开学,很多学校也是online的。难道不开学,学生继续不学习?
总把blm放嘴边是病,要看心理医生。
现在还认为游行是德州和佛州病例增加主要原因的人都是智商有问题。
我这也早就戴口罩了啊,但是数据也没有那么好
你听没听过美国有个弹丸小州叫特拉华,每百万人口死亡589,比亚利桑那(448),得克萨斯(198),佛罗里达(270)都高,所以你猜躲地下室有用没?
一定要的呀!一定要像川普说的面对面每周上五天, 每天7个小时, 然后先拿华人川粉的小孩做实验!
有个东西叫人口密度!很多中部农业玉米州, 按平时的节奏生活就已经是socially distancing 了。
blm 确实是病