他的文章还没有写完。但是非常的直白坦率。 美国处在帝国的衰落期。到底会怎样全靠我们每一个公民的选择。可以选择一起走向灭亡，也可以选择悬崖勒马。 但是他很悲观的说，目前看来悬崖勒马很难 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycle-united-states-dollar-part-2-ray-dalio/?published= From studying history we can see that reversing a declining power is very difficult because that requires undoing a lot that has already been done. For example, bringing one’s finances to the point that one’s spending is greater than one’s earnings and one’s assets are greater than one’s liabilities can only be reversed by either working harder or consuming less, which is not easily done. Still, this cycle needn’t transpire this way if those in their rich and powerful stages stay productive and safe by continuing to work hard and smart, earn more than they spend, save a lot, and make the system work well for most of the population. A number of empires and dynasties have sustained themselves for hundreds of years and the United States, at 244 years old, has proven itself to be one of the most durable now in existence. I think the most important question is how we adapt and change by asking ourselves and honestly answering some difficult questions. For example, while the capitalist profit-making system allocates resources relatively efficiently, we now need to ask ourselves, “Who is it optimizing these efficiencies for?” and “What should be done if the benefits are not broad-based?” “Will we modify capitalism so that it both increases the size of the pie (by increasing productivity) and divides it well?” These questions are especially important to answer in an era when the greatest efficiencies can be gained by technologies replacing people so employing people will increasingly become unprofitable and inefficient, making one uncompetitive. “Should we, or should we not, invest in people to make them productive even when it’s uneconomic to do so?” “What if our international competitors choose robots over people so we will be uncompetitive if we choose to employ people rather than robots?” “Is our democratic/capitalist system capable of asking and answering such important questions and then doing something to handle them well?” So many more important questions come to mind. When we think about the future, which we will do in the concluding chapter of this book, we will have to wrestle with these questions and many other difficult ones.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycle-united-states-dollar-part-2-ray-dalio/?published=
From studying history we can see that reversing a declining power is very difficult because that requires undoing a lot that has already been done. For example, bringing one’s finances to the point that one’s spending is greater than one’s earnings and one’s assets are greater than one’s liabilities can only be reversed by either working harder or consuming less, which is not easily done. Still, this cycle needn’t transpire this way if those in their rich and powerful stages stay productive and safe by continuing to work hard and smart, earn more than they spend, save a lot, and make the system work well for most of the population. A number of empires and dynasties have sustained themselves for hundreds of years and the United States, at 244 years old, has proven itself to be one of the most durable now in existence. I think the most important question is how we adapt and change by asking ourselves and honestly answering some difficult questions. For example, while the capitalist profit-making system allocates resources relatively efficiently, we now need to ask ourselves, “Who is it optimizing these efficiencies for?” and “What should be done if the benefits are not broad-based?” “Will we modify capitalism so that it both increases the size of the pie (by increasing productivity) and divides it well?” These questions are especially important to answer in an era when the greatest efficiencies can be gained by technologies replacing people so employing people will increasingly become unprofitable and inefficient, making one uncompetitive. “Should we, or should we not, invest in people to make them productive even when it’s uneconomic to do so?” “What if our international competitors choose robots over people so we will be uncompetitive if we choose to employ people rather than robots?” “Is our democratic/capitalist system capable of asking and answering such important questions and then doing something to handle them well?” So many more important questions come to mind. When we think about the future, which we will do in the concluding chapter of this book, we will have to wrestle with these questions and many other difficult ones.