我基本同意一下观点。 大家没买房的或是准备搬的，要郑重考虑一下什么长岛Scarsdale. BN) Sternlicht Says Virus Plus Unrest Equals NYC Property Plunge (1) Sternlicht Says Virus Plus Unrest Equals NYC Property Plunge (1) 2020-06-25 17:10:08.596 GMT By Erik Schatzker (Bloomberg) -- It reads like the script for the business version of a disaster movie: office buildings lose 40% of their value, a third of hotels go bankrupt, residential rents plummet. Yet that, according to Barry Sternlicht, is the real-life future for New York real estate. The coronavirus pandemic has left New York at a “tipping point,” Sternlicht, the billionaire founder of Starwood Capital Group, said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview. Having suffered the country’s worst outbreak, then watched as businesses were looted during unrest in late May, New Yorkers are re-evaluating the city’s density, run-down infrastructure and high cost of living. Some families have already left. But there’s more to his thesis than the virus. Sternlicht blames a “blue state” mentality that favors organized labor and sees taxing the well-off as the best way to close budget gaps. He himself is one of several finance titans who left the New York area to take up residence in Miami, largely because of the lower tax burden. “If they raise taxes, more people leave and the social burden of those that are less fortunate falls on an ever-smaller revenue base,” he said. “The services of the city get worse, the city gets dirtier, the police show up less often. It’s a negative cycle.” New York has been counted out before. In the 1970s, it almost went bankrupt after President Gerald Ford denied the city federal aid. New York bounced back after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks leveled the World Trade Center, and again after the financial crisis wiped out some 100,000 jobs in the city and almost $3 billion of tax revenue. Different Time As Sternlicht sees it, this time is different. So long as there’s no Covid-19 vaccine and the virus is spreading, big city tourism, sports and events such as conventions will be largely on hold. While Starwood, which has some $60 billion in assets, can withstand the hit to its 1 Hotel locations near Central Park and on the Brooklyn waterfront, as well as to its Baccarat Hotel New York in midtown Manhattan, many other property owners can’t. “I think a quarter, a third of hotels in New York City could go bankrupt,” Sternlicht said. “It’s going to be ugly. You tell me when big businesses are going to force their clients or customers or employees to go to a group meeting in Vegas or in New Orleans or in Orlando.” It’s not that Sternlicht is down on all real estate, and some of Starwood’s properties are holding up comparatively well. Tenants in its 80,000 apartment units nationwide are mostly paying rent on time, and hotels in drive-to markets such as Miami are still attracting guests. Also, unemployment is likely to decline, he said, with people returning to work. Malls are one exception, with Covid-19 intensifying the damage already done by Amazon.com Inc. At the same time, tenants that consistently draw shoppers in person, such as Apple Inc.’s stores, are turning the tables on their landlords by suggesting they get paid to locate or stay in a given mall, Sternlicht said. Retail ‘Pandemic’ “It’s very hard to value these assets, and it’s going to be a long time before that landscape has reached equilibrium,” he said. “Amazon was a pandemic to retail.” As dismal as that sounds, Sternlicht has an even gloomier view for New York office buildings. Demand from tech companies such as Amazon and Facebook Inc., both of which secured new space during the pandemic, will disappear if millennials don’t want to live in the city -- and they don’t, he said. WeWork, which became New York’s largest tenant in 2018, is shrinking its footprint globally. Wall Street chiefs are talking openly about needing less overall real estate or opening offices in the suburbs so employees who live there and are fearful of catching the virus don’t have to ride trains, buses or the subway. Three Decades The result may be the city’s biggest real estate slump in at least three decades. According to Cushman & Wakefield data going back to 1990, Manhattan rents haven’t fallen by more than 20% in a single year. “Rents could drop 25% in New York -- office rents. I think expenses could go up 25%. You could see office values drop 40% because of that,” Sternlicht said. “It’s probably going to be the toughest office market in the country.” Read more: Gorman sees Morgan Stanley future with ‘much less real estate’ And if jobs move elsewhere, the residential market will collapse too. landlords are “desperate” to retain young tenants and increasingly willing to cut apartment rents by as much as 25%, Sternlicht said. That’s where his “negative cycle” kicks in. As New York’s income base erodes and strains on social programs and infrastructure intensify, he predicted that quality of life will deteriorate, more wealthy residents will leave and tax rates will inevitably increase on those who remain. In April and May, New York had the largest percentage of residents looking for homes to buy in other metro areas, according to data released Thursday by real estate brokerage Redfin Corp. The top search destination for New Yorkers on Redfin’s platform was Atlanta. Starwood Capital has been investing in so-called red states with Republican governors, such as Florida, Texas and Tennessee, Sternlicht said, because they have growing populations, companies are relocating there and the non-union construction costs are much lower than in blue states run by Democrats. “I don’t think you can make New York miserable for the affluent and expect it to be successful for everyone,” Sternlicht said. “There are other incredible places in the country -- or they will be incredible when all the New Yorkers populate them.”
Agent 的话，听听就可以， 呵呵 什么郊区抢疯了啥的， 听听就可以， 别当真 Great Neck Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $1,174,788 -4.7% 1-year change -4.1% 1-year forecast Short Hills Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $1,475,504 -3.7% 1-year change -4.0% 1-year forecast Princeton Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $778,802 0.3% 1-year change -3.1% 1-year forecast
我有个家人从Scarsdale搬到的palm beach，结果没几年就回来了。
而且没有纽约人跑德州去，退休必然得是佛罗里达
Scarsdale 地税太高，房子又破，没有商业，即使不买曼哈顿我也不建议买Scarsdale
绿化好，我喜欢。就是地税太高了。中长期工作流入红州是趋势。 我准备在FL买个养老的房子，不需要海景，只要安全就行。
无聊啊，夏天太闷了，然后hurricane season，主要还是儿女在nyc和nj。一开始fl也就冬天住3个月，现在估计这3个月也不去了。
佛州那个又热又潮湿的气候，真不适合每个人
公寓不知道，fl的Hurricane season我也没经历过。
现在佛罗里达也是差异很大，迈阿密巨贵，靠奥兰多又有许多蓝领，乱乱的。不介意沙漠气候可以考虑亚利桑Scottsdale 什么的
长期工作没有了，人会随着工作走。 另外长岛NJ抢房子了，我怎么没听说？
Jacksonville怎么样？如果退休再去，可以直接住乡下，也不用大城市了。
我就知道迈阿密海景房11年时70-80万，现在好几百万完全买不起了。佛罗里达的好地方好房子过去十年涨得非常多。也听说有老中在09年时抄底一堆迈阿密那种十万的foreclosure,不知道现在怎么样了
当初卖给我房子的老头就是12年在Miami beach买的豪宅，估计现在翻倍了。羡慕死了。
我有不少客户40左右就退休的，在那边买豪华高层公寓
哈，老头有眼光！
旧金山呢?
税高，地方小，工作流失，加上要defund警察，城市不安全。如果高薪工作走了，服务业也会走。 长期不看好。
没觉得长岛的房子抢疯了，最近几个月明显放缓了。。。
嗯，我也没听说长岛在抢房子。
给个zip code
说抢房子的张口就来 说个Zip 我天天关注郊区房子 看了一年多了 最近明显放缓
他们退休了每天干啥呢？小孩还要上学呢呀
千万别流出了。极左在一堆比较好
正好带孩子啊，孩子上学时想不干嘛就不用干嘛，很爽的。如果嫌闷的话，每个学校需要义工
Agent 的话，听听就可以， 呵呵
什么郊区抢疯了啥的， 听听就可以， 别当真
Great Neck Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $1,174,788 -4.7% 1-year change -4.1% 1-year forecast
Short Hills Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $1,475,504 -3.7% 1-year change -4.0% 1-year forecast
Princeton Home Prices & Values ZILLOW HOME VALUE INDEX $778,802 0.3% 1-year change -3.1% 1-year forecast
现在大纽约地区，几乎所有的地区房价都在跌， 郊区也在跌。
失业率这么高，房价怎么涨？
没有小孩啊，就夫妻俩，我手上不少经济自由的客户都是夫妻无娃
你说的是租还是买？租的很多，买的少
跟左右无关吧，boston恰恰相反，郊区好区房价不涨，市区疯长。
我也考虑买个房子在佛州呢，打算退休了搬过去，大蓝州呆的心情抑郁
纽约也是一样。
过去10年， Brooklyn 好区/华人区几乎涨了100%， Queens 华人区涨了50-100%，曼哈顿豪宅涨幅小一些
郊区长岛相对可能是最好的，Great Neck, Jericho涨幅比Queens , Brooklyn还是差远了
Scarsdale, Short Hills 还没有回到07/08年的高点，大把的人还在水下
呵呵那还是比佛罗里达强百倍。迈阿密连福州人开的正常美式中餐和Asian fusion都难以找到，不要说任何正宗中餐了。有些怪头怪脑的秘鲁式中餐
纽约市长白思豪：为开源节流市府预计将在10月解雇2万2000名员工，同时提醒市民要做好各项市政服务及市府资源、福利减少的准备。
都在裁员，房地产怎么景气？
但是对于纽约人来说真要搬出去也不容易。 自从听说公司要WFH到年底，我就开始看上州和NJ的房子，看了一个月还是放弃了，因为虽然房子本身又便宜又好，但是Google Map上一查commute，真没法想象再回到每天一大早就爬起来赶公交的日子。我看纽约病毒控制的不错，打算还是再等等吧。
忘了说了，如果打算把曼哈顿房子当投资的那是别想了，肯定得不偿失。
疫情之前去一个朋友家玩，在Maplewood，一下火车，感觉空气中弥漫着昏昏欲睡的气氛，人们走路好像都是慢动作。。。
佛罗里达湿度太高了，难受。夏天只能呆海滩边上或者空调房里。能天天呆海滩最好，不能的话呆室内哪里不是一样。
真要WFH, 纽约市区的房子肯定比郊区热门。
我认识很多想搬到纽约市区的，但因为工作的关系，没有办法。有在NJ, CT 工作的年轻人，有在加州， 中西部大农村工作的。如果WFH， 这些人都会搬到纽约市区
纽约是全世界的纽约，有稀缺性
纽约郊区，呵呵，除了离纽约城里近，与中西部大农村没啥大区别
前提是各种服务行业都开放，如果百老汇，餐馆，博物馆都开的话，那无论是不是WFH我都不会搬走的，而且没有拥挤的游客了反而更舒服。
这没啥关系，市府的人很少住在曼哈顿
可以留着城里的房子呀，一旦复工搬回来就行了。这时候卖城里的房子也不是时候，不如留着了，疫情总有结束的一天，房价也总有回来的一天。反正我这么想的，虽然现在住在郊区，城里的房子我没打算卖
大松果赔惨了吧？很多公司都退租了
我们楼下一个中型律所，已经不租了，客户都去NASSAU OFFICE见，是客户要求的。
整个美国的房市随着这次经济衰退也不是一两年能恢复的。
那你郊区的房子是买的还是租的？
没有游客纽约的服务业娱乐业 要倒一大半，你也未必喜欢。
如果真的能长期在家上班，那还住纽约周边干嘛？往南边搬啊。。。夏洛特这种地方啥的，又便宜又好。。
百老汇很大一部分是游客支撑的。如果百老汇撑不下去了，小剧场也会搬走。很多餐厅的娱乐的从业人员可能不住曼哈顿，不过可能住其4个区，这些人如果没了收入来源也会搬走，都是连锁效应。 当然不是说所有服务行业都会走光，但是游客锐减的话这些impact肯定很大。如果纽约所有地方都变成了上东上西那种感觉，很多人也未必觉得纽约很有吸引力了。
俺不懂，有没有明白人分析给俺听听的(搬小板凳，乖乖等听课
呃，虽然我不是你说的那一类，但是姐妹你是有多气啊，这些人毕竟还是少数
短期对房价是打击，但长期看，对城市是利好啊。。。
Scarsdale不在长岛，天安门在山东！😂😂😂
前几天跟一个在纽约金融行业的老客户小聊了几句疫情。全家孩子父母都藤校毕业。两个孩子都在疫情中失业了，又有小孩子们。现在父母得帮忙救急一段时间。如果持续下去，早晚得搬家。纽约的竞争太激烈了，生活成本过高对年轻家庭不利。
纽约是个历史悠久的大都市，经历过若干次大灾难，我认为病毒的长期影响会慢慢过去，短期有阵痛。
讲真，纽约周边郊区的房子也就是因为在commute范围之内有存在价值。要讲居住条件，真是大多数都不咋地。
买的，前两年租出去了，今年不续租了自己住
疫苗出来了BLM也不会消失，纽约黑墨占55%，黑墨木华占估计70%，这里的华大部分在法拉盛，你有生之年也没可能翻红了。
所以纽约将来极大概率取消警察，禁枪，搞不好刀也会禁。妥妥的哥谭市。就等蝙蝠侠出来主持正义了。
往哪里搬？
住一会后就习惯郊区了。从城市里搬郊区都有阵痛，我当初也是。后来还是比较喜欢这种大家在一个community的感觉。在郊区人的流动性不强，住几年后邻居，杂货店老板，邮差什么的都是认识的，见面都会互聊家常也会互相帮助。城市里的人来来去去的，人与人之间没那么紧密。 当然还是看你要什么。
看你觉得是否会比80年代更差喽。。。 那时候整个曼哈顿也就上东区能住人？
看你跟谁比了，纽约郊区跟气候宜人地区的郊区比。大冬天的铲雪，风景也很一般，NJ的蛇还多。
是house吗？我们的house搬城里之后租了两年感觉太麻烦了，后来就卖了。
就算长期WFH，进城方便也是个好事啊，哪怕一周上一天班，哪怕进城看个演出，那也是越方便越好的
办公室都不能去，还能看演出？