补充：有回复提到南早曾经报道过湖北最早的是11/17日而不是12月初。- 如果真的话，逻辑上可能说得通。 Https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back 看了一下只有南早报道了这个。不过南早算是中间，略亲BJ的媒体，这个可靠性应该不低。 官方的最早发病是12/8日 （实际上有一例 12月初就有）。早期CDC专家说菜市场是源头就是一个joke。 吐槽一下，中国的数据严重不透明 - 这种追朔的工作需要尽早做尽早公开，非常有利于全世界了解病毒发展机制和防疫。话说回来，政治挂帅的当下， 我也不抱这种幻想。 假如11/17日第一个发病确实的话， 这样的话有可能的途径就是12月份初病毒从武汉带去欧洲，并潜伏下来，12月中污染了意大利的污水。 milan和武汉的人员往来应该不低，这个可能性不低。 SCMP “ The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point. "
Coronavirus may have been present in Italy as early as December, according to the country''s National Institute for Health (ISS). The virus was found in samples of sewage water in Milan and Turin, the institute said in a new report. ISS researchers analysed 40 samples of wastewater collected from October 2019 to February 2020, and compared them to 24 control samples from September 2018 through June 2019. The virus that causes COVID-19 was present in samples from Milan and Turin on December 18 and in Bologna on January 29. The samples were analysed in two different laboratories with two separate methods, the institute said. Samples in January and February 2020 also tested positive, whereas samples from October and November 2019 tested negative. A couple from Rome who had travelled from China became Italy''s first recorded case of coronavirus in late January. The first recorded case in northern Italy was a man in Codogno, who had dined with a colleague from Shanghai. "This research may help to understand the beginning of the virus''s circulation in Italy," the ISS said in a statement. The Italian report follows similar findings in other European countries. Researchers in Barcelona found coronavirus in wastewater dating back to 41 days prior to their first reported case. Doctors at a hospital in France retested samples from patients who were hospitalised with pneumonia in December 2019, finding at least one man who tested positive. Researchers encouraged other hospitals to do the same. Luca Lucentini, who leads the Italian health institute''s department for Quality of Water and Health, said the Italian discovery does not mean "the main transmission chains that led to the development of the epidemic in [Italy] originated from these first cases." "But a surveillance network in the area may prove to be valuable to controlling the epidemic," Lucentini added. The institute has presented a proposal to the Italian Ministry of Health to surveil wastewater systems for coronavirus and hopes to launch a pilot study in tourist locations.
Coronavirus may have been present in Italy as early as December, according to the country's National Institute for Health (ISS). The virus was found in samples of sewage water in Milan and Turin, the institute said in a new report. ISS researchers analysed 40 samples of wastewater collected from October 2019 to February 2020, and compared them to 24 control samples from September 2018 through June 2019. The virus that causes COVID-19 was present in samples from Milan and Turin on December 18 and in Bologna on January 29. The samples were analysed in two different laboratories with two separate methods, the institute said. Samples in January and February 2020 also tested positive, whereas samples from October and November 2019 tested negative. A couple from Rome who had travelled from China became Italy's first recorded case of coronavirus in late January. The first recorded case in northern Italy was a man in Codogno, who had dined with a colleague from Shanghai. "This research may help to understand the beginning of the virus's circulation in Italy," the ISS said in a statement. The Italian report follows similar findings in other European countries. Researchers in Barcelona found coronavirus in wastewater dating back to 41 days prior to their first reported case. Doctors at a hospital in France retested samples from patients who were hospitalised with pneumonia in December 2019, finding at least one man who tested positive. Researchers encouraged other hospitals to do the same. Luca Lucentini, who leads the Italian health institute's department for Quality of Water and Health, said the Italian discovery does not mean "the main transmission chains that led to the development of the epidemic in [Italy] originated from these first cases." "But a surveillance network in the area may prove to be valuable to controlling the epidemic," Lucentini added. The institute has presented a proposal to the Italian Ministry of Health to surveil wastewater systems for coronavirus and hopes to launch a pilot study in tourist locations.
SCMP “ The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point. "
Connor Reed, a 25-year-old expat from Llandudno in North Wales, has worked in a school in Wuhan, China, for almost a year. In November he became the first British man to catch the coronavirus. From coughs and aches to burning up and spending the night in hospital, here’s how he beat the illness that is sweeping the globe. Day 1 — Monday November 25: I have a cold. I’m sneezing and my eyes are a bit bleary. It isn’t bad enough to keep me off work. I arrived in this country to teach English as a foreign language — but now I’m a manager at a school in Wuhan, the city in central China where I have lived for the past seven months. Day 37: The rumours were right. Everyone is being told to stay indoors. From what I’ve heard, the virus is like a nasty dose of flu that can cause pneumonia. Well, that sounds familiar. Day 52: A notification from the hospital informs me that I was infected with the Wuhan coronavirus. I suppose I should be pleased that I can’t catch it again — I’m immune now.
【Now新聞台】意大利發現有污水樣本早在去年十二月中，已經存在新型冠狀病毒。
意大利國家衞生研究院由去年10月至今年2月，在北部的污水處理廠收集了40個樣本，經分析後，其中在去年12月18日，米蘭及都靈的樣本存在新冠病毒，時間比中國在大除夕通報首宗確診個案還要早。
專家表示，研究結果可以幫助了解病毒初期如何在意大利傳播，但強調並不代表引發疫情的傳播鏈始於意大利。
荷蘭、法國、澳洲的同類研究都在污水找到病毒，其他國家亦開始用這個方法追蹤病毒的傳播途徑。
英文主流媒体也有报道。 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53106444
补充：有回复提到南早曾经报道过湖北最早的是11/17日而不是12月初。- 如果真的话，逻辑上可能说得通。
Https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back
看了一下只有南早报道了这个。不过南早算是中间，略亲BJ的媒体，这个可靠性应该不低。
官方的最早发病是12/8日 （实际上有一例 12月初就有）。早期CDC专家说菜市场是源头就是一个joke。
吐槽一下，中国的数据严重不透明 - 这种追朔的工作需要尽早做尽早公开，非常有利于全世界了解病毒发展机制和防疫。话说回来，政治挂帅的当下， 我也不抱这种幻想。
假如11/17日第一个发病确实的话， 这样的话有可能的途径就是12月份初病毒从武汉带去欧洲，并潜伏下来，12月中污染了意大利的污水。 milan和武汉的人员往来应该不低，这个可能性不低。
SCMP “ The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point. "
Coronavirus may have been present in Italy as early as December, according to the country''s National Institute for Health (ISS). The virus was found in samples of sewage water in Milan and Turin, the institute said in a new report.
ISS researchers analysed 40 samples of wastewater collected from October 2019 to February 2020, and compared them to 24 control samples from September 2018 through June 2019. The virus that causes COVID-19 was present in samples from Milan and Turin on December 18 and in Bologna on January 29. The samples were analysed in two different laboratories with two separate methods, the institute said.
Samples in January and February 2020 also tested positive, whereas samples from October and November 2019 tested negative.
A couple from Rome who had travelled from China became Italy''s first recorded case of coronavirus in late January. The first recorded case in northern Italy was a man in Codogno, who had dined with a colleague from Shanghai.
"This research may help to understand the beginning of the virus''s circulation in Italy," the ISS said in a statement. The Italian report follows similar findings in other European countries. Researchers in Barcelona found coronavirus in wastewater dating back to 41 days prior to their first reported case. Doctors at a hospital in France retested samples from patients who were hospitalised with pneumonia in December 2019, finding at least one man who tested positive. Researchers encouraged other hospitals to do the same. Luca Lucentini, who leads the Italian health institute''s department for Quality of Water and Health, said the Italian discovery does not mean "the main transmission chains that led to the development of the epidemic in [Italy] originated from these first cases." "But a surveillance network in the area may prove to be valuable to controlling the epidemic," Lucentini added. The institute has presented a proposal to the Italian Ministry of Health to surveil wastewater systems for coronavirus and hopes to launch a pilot study in tourist locations.
求环境和生物的专家解答。
可能样品被污染了！如果真的污水都能测出来，这个浓度要多大啊！
这个是IIS，意大利国家卫生研究所，他们这个是常规操作，测试40个sample，12月前的sample没有被污染，就12月份的被污染？ 不排除你说的这个可能，但是一个国家级研究所犯这种错误的概率是多大？
科学家在二月份根据基因序列就指出这个病毒起码十多年前就已经跳到中间寄体（或者人类）了。某些还在散步病毒所合成论的是装聋装瞎而已。
那为啥其他地方都是在武汉大爆发之后才爆发呢 其他地方的病毒都在等武汉病毒一声令下开始传染？
没看到新闻。哪个地方的污水？
另外 - 看报道，意大利这个研究还是比较靠谱的，用2种方法测试，降低假阳性概率。
意大利高等卫生研究院18日发布的一项研究结果显示，研究人员在意大利北部两座城市米兰和都灵去年12月的废水样本中检测出新冠病毒的核糖核酸。 意大利高等卫生研究院水质专家朱塞平娜·拉罗萨和食品安全专家伊丽莎白·苏弗雷迪尼牵头这项研究。拉罗萨的团队检测了2019年10月至2020年2月在意大利北部多个城市废水处理厂采集的40份废水样本。 两个实验室用两种不同方法确认米兰和都灵去年12月18日采集的废水样本中有新冠病毒核糖核酸。 米兰和都灵去年10月和11月采集的废水样本中没有发现新冠病毒核糖核酸。这两市及北部城市博洛尼亚今年1月和2月采集的废水样本中发现新冠病毒核糖核酸。 意大利高等卫生研究院说，这项研究显示与法国和西班牙两项分析结果“相一致的信息”，可以“帮助了解新冠病毒在意大利传播的起始”。 意大利高等卫生研究院提到，法国一份住院患者样本的追溯检测结果显示，一名患者感染新冠病毒的时间可以追溯到去年12月底；西班牙最近一项调查发现，巴塞罗那市今年1月中旬采集的废水样本中有新冠病毒核糖核酸，“比西班牙报告首例本土新冠病例早40天”。 意大利今年1月下旬首次报告新冠病例，迄今超过3.4万人死于新冠病毒。意大利3月10日起在全国范围禁止非必要外出，5月4日进入防控疫情与重启经济并行阶段，目前疫情好转。 荷兰、法国和澳大利亚的科研人员也在废水中发现新冠病毒踪迹，正在推进研究。
而且那些国家一开始被测出的病例全部武汉相关
我对病毒起源持开放态度。1） 大家现在对这个病毒的理解还不全面。 2）另外病毒入侵和爆发是可以有很长时间gap，- Mers 爆发的时候，后来发现1-2年前mers就已经传播开了；西班牙flu，是在美国先爆发（没记错的话）；Aids等更不用说。
但是你说的这个“全都“，有误导性。
参见法国的这个卖鱼的 - 我记得报道他卖鱼的地方也不是游客常去地。
法国医生称零号病人12月就感染新冠 据美联社报道，法国科学家称，他们可能已经发现了一个可以追溯到2019年12月的新冠病毒感染病例。从时间上来说，也就是到目前为止欧洲首次确认第一个病例之前的一个月。
这么大的发现你怎么不发篇文章？
病毒 感觉是外星人啊。。。
这病毒很守纪律啊，可能local有党支部？
说明武汉8月中就发现医疗系统异常的研究是正确的
流窜犯最早在武汉被抓住，中国学者首先完成测序，当然武汉就成了原点了。
西北大学刚发的没看过吗？芝加哥3月感染的SARS2病毒是武汉早期毒株，不是纽约的
非常同意你说的检验智商和脑洞。
你可以写个剧本，某国派了特工去意大利IIS去搞这种爆料。任何不支持投毒论的都是高级特工。预祝大卖。
毫无疑问武汉和湖北非常失败，1月初的试图掩盖是耻辱。
试回答你的问题，打个不恰当的比方，从上帝视角看地区的话，可以把人类当成某种病毒。把地球历史压缩成几年的话，你就会说，为什么人类在漫长的地球历史最后几分钟几秒钟就爆发了呢？ 在人类文明在两河流域和其他少数地区爆发的时候，人类祖先之前存在吗？ 或者为什么人猿存在几万年，偏偏在最近几千年几百年大爆发呢？
猜测- 病毒出现一个关键跳跃，也可能是投毒，也可能是一个特别适合的环境（冬天+ 肮脏的环境+卫生习惯）带来大爆发。我没有答案，也不敢假装我有答案。
看了一下只有南早报道了这个。不过南早算是中间，略亲BJ的媒体，这个可靠性应该不低。
官方的最早发病是12/8日 （实际上有一例 12月初就有）。早期CDC专家说菜市场是源头就是一个joke。
吐槽一下，中国的数据严重不透明 - 这种追朔的工作需要尽早做尽早公开，非常有利于全世界了解病毒发展机制和防疫。话说回来，政治挂帅的担心， 我也不抱这种幻想。
假如11/17日第一个发病确实的话， 这样的话有可能的途径就是12月份初病毒从武汉带去欧洲，并潜伏下来，12月中污染了意大利的污水。 milan和武汉的人员往来应该不低，这个可能性不低。
SCMP “ The first case of someone in China suffering from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, can be traced back to November 17, according to government data seen by the South China Morning Post. Chinese authorities have so far identified at least 266 people who were infected last year, all of whom came under medical surveillance at some point. "
加上这个UK的小伙子，那武汉病毒11月开始传染确定了。 另外他也说他自己去那个海鲜市场买东西，而且他前面一直没有什么防护。他是11/25有症状，第52天（一月中）被通知他当时感染的是新冠。
政治挂帅的媒体审查真可怕，这种后期排查出来的case 这种情况国内绝对不会报道。或者当时被报道了，很快被河蟹.
Connor Reed, a 25-year-old expat from Llandudno in North Wales, has worked in a school in Wuhan, China, for almost a year. In November he became the first British man to catch the coronavirus. From coughs and aches to burning up and spending the night in hospital, here’s how he beat the illness that is sweeping the globe.
Day 1 — Monday November 25: I have a cold. I’m sneezing and my eyes are a bit bleary. It isn’t bad enough to keep me off work. I arrived in this country to teach English as a foreign language — but now I’m a manager at a school in Wuhan, the city in central China where I have lived for the past seven months.
Day 37: The rumours were right. Everyone is being told to stay indoors. From what I’ve heard, the virus is like a nasty dose of flu that can cause pneumonia. Well, that sounds familiar. Day 52: A notification from the hospital informs me that I was infected with the Wuhan coronavirus. I suppose I should be pleased that I can’t catch it again — I’m immune now.