纽约州估计13.9%已有抗体

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.
The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities, Cuomo said.

“What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies. What does that mean? It means these were people who were infected and who developed the antibodies to fight the infection,” he said. “They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered.’”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

感觉感染率30%以上了，FB已经看到好几次有人发亲戚去世了，太难过了 实在受不了美国的防疫抗疫了，马上要复工，就是直奔50%感染率甚至更高

他这个sample 是有bias 的。取样的是在超市的人，那出门多的人有更大几率被sample, 而这些人也有更大几率被感染。 我倒是希望我们赶快群体免疫了呢。

样本有偏见，因为是去商店的人取样。没有做到随意性。
如果都是待在家里的取样，又是一个很低的数字。

不要指望群体免疫，这个抗体只能保持几个月。

抗体不知道有没有用啊，我们马上也要回去上班了，想想还是挺怕的

他这个sample 是有bias 的。取样的是在超市的人，那出门多的人有更大几率被sample, 而这些人也有更大几率被感染。
我倒是希望我们赶快群体免疫了呢。
Cybercat 发表于 4/23/2020 12:12:13 PM

如果是超市工作人员
显然是bias的

如果是去购物的
bias就小了
绝大多数家庭还是需要外出购物的

Make sense。南加北加都接近5%了，重灾区纽约的这个感染率很合情合理。

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.
The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities, Cuomo said.

“What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies. What does that mean? It means these were people who were infected and who developed the antibodies to fight the infection,” he said. “They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered.’”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

xizzhu 发表于 4/23/2020 12:08:06 PM

21% NYC

本大妈一个月之前说，纽约市感染过的人数在20-60%，两周之前改成40-80%。 介于这个感染过的人在测试的时候不一定有抗体和抗体测试的敏感性。 本大妈立下flag,纽约市感染过的人数在40-80%，新冠死亡率在0.1-0.5%。

回复 1楼xizzhu的帖子 没有纽约市的情况？这是大洲范围数据

本大妈一个月之前说，纽约市感染过的人数在20-60%，两周之前改成40-80%。
介于这个感染过的人在测试的时候不一定有抗体和抗体测试的敏感性。
本大妈立下flag,纽约市感染过的人数在40-80%，新冠死亡率在0.1-0.5%。
大衣被禁 发表于 4/23/2020 12:52:19 PM

如果新冠死亡率和流感差不多，可是没有见大批医护感染流感甚至死亡。不知医护中的新冠死亡率是多少？

60%感染，可以群体免疫了……

死亡数=感染人数*死亡率 新冠死亡率约等于未打疫苗人群流感死亡率。 新冠每月感染人数是流感感染的几倍甚至十几几十倍。

如果新冠死亡率和流感差不多，可是没有见大批医护感染流感甚至死亡。不知医护中的新冠死亡率是多少？ bigmoney 发表于 4/23/2020 12:59:00 PM

不要指望群体免疫，这个抗体只能保持几个月。
2020wakening 发表于 4/23/2020 12:13:11 PM

这个病毒冒出来才几个月，你就知道抗体只能保持几个月了？