Q But Kock worries. Goat plague is a paramyxovirus, a virus in the same family as measles. Its case fatality rate can be as high as 90%, and some animals that contract it can infect eight to 12 others.
“They are nasty viruses,” Kock said, adding that they’re formidable in their spread and aggressiveness. It wouldn’t take a big tweak in the goat plague’s genome ― “just two amino acids, essentially” ― for it to become infectious to humans, he said. “In theory, it is very possible.”
Q Live animal markets and COVID-19. Degraded forests and Lyme disease. Agricultural production, disrupted bat habitat and a petrifying new paramyxovirus. These examples all tell the same story: Humanity’s effect on the natural world, and on wildlife especially, is causing novel pathogens to infect, harm and kill us. When we mine, drill, bulldoze and overdevelop, when we traffic in wild animals and invade intact habitat, when we make intimate contact with birds, bats, primates, rodents and more, we run an intensifying risk of contracting one of the estimated 1.6 million unknown viruses that reside in the bodies of other species. UQ
But, some people still like wars against other people!
Q “Nipah is a scary virus because it is super deadly,” said Epstein, who has studied the virus’s spread and notes that it has a case fatality rate in Bangladesh of about 75%. UQ
Chinese scientists have found that Europe and America’s East Coast have been infected by some of the most aggressive Covid-19 strains, as they discovered dozens of virus mutations. These destroy a host’s cells faster than others.
貌似这个更恐怖啊😱！已经在孟加拉？人传人了，为啥没爆发不知道.... 貌似只要传染性强点，分分钟干翻人类啊…… “Nipah has shown human-to-human transmission consistently in Bangladesh, and that is why it is among the top listed infectious disease threats,” Epstein said. “It is only a matter of time before a version of Nipah virus gets into people, one that is both deadly and highly transmissible.” In other words, there’s no need to speculate about the spillover of a scary disease like goat plague when Nipah is already on the scene. heighly 发表于 4/21/2020 2:24:31 PM
I think we need an international protocol like the existing earthquake early warning system.
So that even a local government is able to follow the protocol and to annouce proper warning without any hestitations.
Therefore travellers would avoid or reduce transmtting virus infections. Rather than "just too late" as determined by a small group of people in another country far away, if without any international official protocol!
An earthquake warning system or earthquake early warning system is a system of accelerometers, seismometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for notifying adjoining regions of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress. This is not the same as earthquake prediction, which is currently incapable of producing decisive event warnings. UQ
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease specialist, warned in early 2017 that a “surprise outbreak” would occur during the Trump administration, and he said that more needed to be done to prepare for a pandemic.
“There is no question that there will be a challenge to the coming administration in the arena of infectious diseases,” he said in a speech titled “Pandemic Preparedness in the Next Administration” at Georgetown University Medical Center. He delivered it just days before Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017.
...
Three years ago, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted that we’d get hit with an infectious disease outbreak right about now. Let’s pretend that we’d all heard him and listened three years ago. If we had started vastly reducing emissions then, could we have made enough of a dent to put us in a better position to weather this crisis? UQ
What does the coronavirus pandemic have to do with climate change?
The connections between COVID-19 and climate change are real. Evidence is already emerging that shows, for instance, that air pollution is increasing the odds that people will die from COVID. This is based on the United States. And this is truly mind-blowing to me: A 1 microgram per meter-cubed increase in particulate matter raised the chances of death from COVID by 15%. This is a very small change in air quality, leading to a substantial increase in risk of people dying.
Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States (Updated April 5, 2020)
Xiao Wu MS, Rachel C. Nethery PhD, M. Benjamin Sabath MA, Danielle Braun PhD, Francesca Dominici PhD All authors are part of the Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
Lead authors: Xiao Wu and Rachel C. Nethery Corresponding and senior author: Francesca Dominici, PhD
美国的空气污染暴露和COVID-19死亡率（2020年4月5日更新）
Xiao Wu硕士，Rachel C. Nethery博士，M. Benjamin Sabath硕士，Danielle Braun博士，Francesca Dominici博士 所有作者均为哈佛大学生物统计学系的一部分。 美国马萨诸塞州波士顿，陈公共卫生学院，02115
The use of poluted water for farming must be stopped in Mainland, as a true solution should be to improve the oerall water, sanitary and hygirne ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASH) infrastructure systematically that of course coud cost many trillions US dollars but it's worth to invest that much in long eun.
Q https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/fauci-warned-of-trump-pandemic-2017_n_5e8a0548c5b6e7d76c65c8a4?“No matter what, history has told us definitively that [outbreaks] will happen,” he said. “It is a perpetual challenge. It is not going to go away. The thing we’re extraordinarily confident about is that we are going to see this in the next few years.” Fauci ticked off a list of measures needed to prepare for such a crisis, including creating and strengthening global health surveillance systems, as well as public health and health care infrastructure; practicing transparency and honest communication with the public; coordinating and collaborating on both basic and clinical research, and developing universal platform technologies to better facilitate the development of vaccines. “The mistake that so many people have made … is a failure to look beyond our own borders in the issue of the globality of health issues, not only things that are there that will come here but surprises that we’ll have,” he said in his prescient remarks.他说：“无论如何，历史已经明确地告诉我们[暴发]将会发生。” “这是一个永恒的挑战。 它不会消失。 我们非常有信心的事情是，我们将在未来几年内看到这一点。” Fauci列出了为应对这场危机做准备所需采取的一系列措施，包括建立和加强全球卫生监测系统以及公共卫生和卫生保健基础设施； 与公众保持透明和诚实的沟通； 在基础研究和临床研究方面进行协调与合作，并开发通用平台技术以更好地促进疫苗的开发。 他说：“许多人犯的错误……是无法在健康问题的全球性问题上超越我们自己的疆界，不仅是这里将要发生的事情，而且还会给我们带来惊喜。” 在他有先见之明的话中。 UQ
In other corners of the Valley, people are developing test kits and possible vaccines, as well as software to treat the social and economic maladies of the pandemic. Smaller companies have created entirely new business models in response to the virus. The projects can be as simple as an app reminding people to wash their hands or one that connects users with barbers in Brooklyn for lessons on how to cut their hair at home.
There's a feeling among some technologists that some of their work in recent years had become mercenary or frivolous attempts to capitalise on a prolonged tech boom with apps that cater to the whims of wealthy coastal elites, rather than meeting the urgent needs of the rest of the world.
"Facebook, Snapchat and the last decade of tech has brought us together in some ways but has also pushed us further away from real life," says Lu, a former creative director at venture capital firm 500 Startups. "The virus is a warning for people in the Bay Area that we can't just come here and take and take. We have to give, too."
22/04/2020
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/emerging-disease-environmental-destruction_n_5e9db58fc5b63c5b58723afd?
Q
But Kock worries. Goat plague is a paramyxovirus, a virus in the same family as measles. Its case fatality rate can be as high as 90%, and some animals that contract it can infect eight to 12 others.
“They are nasty viruses,” Kock said, adding that they’re formidable in their spread and aggressiveness. It wouldn’t take a big tweak in the goat plague’s genome ― “just two amino acids, essentially” ― for it to become infectious to humans, he said. “In theory, it is very possible.”
UQ
Live animal markets and COVID-19. Degraded forests and Lyme disease. Agricultural production, disrupted bat habitat and a petrifying new paramyxovirus. These examples all tell the same story: Humanity’s effect on the natural world, and on wildlife especially, is causing novel pathogens to infect, harm and kill us. When we mine, drill, bulldoze and overdevelop, when we traffic in wild animals and invade intact habitat, when we make intimate contact with birds, bats, primates, rodents and more, we run an intensifying risk of contracting one of the estimated 1.6 million unknown viruses that reside in the bodies of other species.
UQ
But, some people still like wars against other people!
东部完全失守
Chinese scientists have found that Europe and America’s East Coast have
been infected by some of the most aggressive Covid-19 strains, as they
discovered dozens of virus mutations. These destroy a host’s cells faster
than others.
这种烈性病毒，虽然致死率很高，传染范围应该反而会小，因为宿主马上就死了，就好像Ebola病毒。
So that even a local government is able to follow the protocol and to annouce proper warning without any hestitations.
Therefore travellers would avoid or reduce transmtting virus infections. Rather than "just too late" as determined by a small group of people in another country far away, if without any international official protocol!
Q
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_warning_system
An earthquake warning system or earthquake early warning system is a system of accelerometers, seismometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for notifying adjoining regions of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress. This is not the same as earthquake prediction, which is currently incapable of producing decisive event warnings.
UQ
看看这个帖子里崭新崭新的id。。。。
Dr. Fauci Warned In 2017 Of ‘Surprise Outbreak’ During Trump Administration
“There is no question that there will be a challenge to the coming administration in the arena of infectious diseases,” he said.
Updated 07/04/2020
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/fauci-warned-of-trump-pandemic-2017_n_5e8a0548c5b6e7d76c65c8a4?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease specialist, warned in early 2017 that a “surprise outbreak” would occur during the Trump administration, and he said that more needed to be done to prepare for a pandemic.
“There is no question that there will be a challenge to the coming administration in the arena of infectious diseases,” he said in a speech titled “Pandemic Preparedness in the Next Administration” at Georgetown University Medical Center. He delivered it just days before Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2017.
...
Three years ago, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted that we’d get hit with an infectious disease outbreak right about now. Let’s pretend that we’d all heard him and listened three years ago. If we had started vastly reducing emissions then, could we have made enough of a dent to put us in a better position to weather this crisis?
UQ
Anyone can do a Google Translate:
"
Fauci博士在特朗普政府执政期间于2017年警告“突如其来的爆发”
他说：“毫无疑问，即将到来的政府在传染病领域将面临挑战。”
更新了07/04/2020
美国政府首席传染病专家安东尼·福西博士（Anthony Fauci）在2017年初警告称，特朗普政府执政期间将发生“突如其来的爆发”，他说，需要做更多的准备来应对大流行。
他在乔治敦大学医学中心发表的题为“下一届政府的大流行防备”的讲话中说：“毫无疑问，即将到来的政府在传染病领域将面临挑战。” 在特朗普于2017年1月20日就职前几天，他就递交了这封信。
...
三年前，安东尼·福西（Anthony Fauci）博士预测，我们现在将受到传染病爆发的打击。 假设我们三年前都听过他的话。 如果我们已经开始大幅度减少排放，那么，我们是否有足够的能力让我们处于更好的位置来度过这场危机？
"
Updated 21/04/2020
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/why-the-solutions-to-coronavirus-and-climate-change-are-the-same_au_5e96910bc5b65eae709c0a23?
What does the coronavirus pandemic have to do with climate change?
The connections between COVID-19 and climate change are real. Evidence is already emerging that shows, for instance, that air pollution is increasing the odds that people will die from COVID. This is based on the United States. And this is truly mind-blowing to me: A 1 microgram per meter-cubed increase in particulate matter raised the chances of death from COVID by 15%. This is a very small change in air quality, leading to a substantial increase in risk of people dying.
冠状病毒大流行与气候变化有何关系？
COVID-19与气候变化之间的联系是真实的。 例如，空气污染正在增加人们死于COVID的可能性的证据已经出现。 这是基于美国的。 这对我而言真是令人赞叹：每立方米颗粒物质每增加1微克，死于COVID的机会增加15％。 这是空气质量的很小变化，导致人们死亡的风险大大增加。
UQ
Q
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm
Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States (Updated April 5, 2020)
Xiao Wu MS, Rachel C. Nethery PhD, M. Benjamin Sabath MA, Danielle Braun PhD, Francesca Dominici PhD
All authors are part of the Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
Lead authors: Xiao Wu and Rachel C. Nethery
Corresponding and senior author: Francesca Dominici, PhD
美国的空气污染暴露和COVID-19死亡率（2020年4月5日更新）
Xiao Wu硕士，Rachel C. Nethery博士，M. Benjamin Sabath硕士，Danielle Braun博士，Francesca Dominici博士
所有作者均为哈佛大学生物统计学系的一部分。 美国马萨诸塞州波士顿，陈公共卫生学院，02115
主要作者：小吴和蕾切尔·耐特里
通讯作者和高级作者：Francesca Dominici，博士
Chinese Translation 中文翻译
美国空气污染和人群中新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）死亡率的关系
背景：美国官方科学家估计，新型冠状病毒可能导致10万至24万美国人死亡。大多数增加COVID-19死亡风险的既往病史与由于长期暴露于空气污染而形成的疾病相同。我们研究了在美国的人群中长期暴露于细颗粒物（PM2.5）是否会增加COVID-19死亡的风险。
方法：我们收集了截至2020年4月4日美国约3000个县（占总人口的98%）的数据。我们以各县的COVID-19死亡率为因变量，以各县的PM2.5长期平均暴露量为自变量，拟合零膨胀负二项混合效应回归模型。我们控制人口规模、医院床位、受检测人数、天气、社会经济和行为方式变量（包括但不限于肥胖指标和吸烟率）作为协变量。我们在模型中包括了一个随机截距项，以解释在同一个州内各县的潜在相关性。
结果：PM2.5长期平均暴露量仅增加1微克每立方米就与新型冠状病毒死亡率增加15% （95%置信区间，5%~25%）相关。这项结果在统计学上具有显著相关性，并且对敏感性分析稳健。
结论：长期暴露于PM2.5可导致新型冠状病毒死亡率大幅度上升，是PM2.5和全因死亡率相关性的20倍。这项研究结果强调了在新型冠状病毒疫情期间以及今后继续执行严格的空气污染防治法律法规以保护人类健康的重要性。这项研究开源了所有数据和代码。
UQ
"所以，我们要保护环境，野生动物"
Finally, China leaders learned a good lesson from this pandemic.
"中共官媒4月21日报导，中共总书记习近平20日下午在陕西调研，首站来到位于商洛市柞水县的秦岭牛背樑国家级自然保护区，考察秦岭生态保护情况。他考察时强调，“要做守护秦岭生态的卫士”、“秦岭违建是一个大教训，切勿重蹈覆辙”。"
https://www.6parknews.com/newspark/view.php?app=news&act=view&nid=412371
" 新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情趋于缓和，4月20日，中共总书记习近平现身陕西，聚焦生态保护和扶贫，这是他在20天前视察浙江后再度赴基层。"
The use of poluted water for farming must be stopped in Mainland, as a true solution should be to improve the oerall water, sanitary and hygirne ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASH) infrastructure systematically that of course coud cost many trillions US dollars but it's worth to invest that much in long eun.
在大陆必须停止使用污染的水进行耕作，因为真正的解决方案应该是系统地改善水，卫生和卫生的总体基础设施，当然这要花费成本 数万亿美元，但值得在长期投资中投入那么多。
In other corners of the Valley, people are developing test kits and possible vaccines, as well as software to treat the social and economic maladies of the pandemic. Smaller companies have created entirely new business models in response to the virus. The projects can be as simple as an app reminding people to wash their hands or one that connects users with barbers in Brooklyn for lessons on how to cut their hair at home.
There's a feeling among some technologists that some of their work in recent years had become mercenary or frivolous attempts to capitalise on a prolonged tech boom with apps that cater to the whims of wealthy coastal elites, rather than meeting the urgent needs of the rest of the world.
"Facebook, Snapchat and the last decade of tech has brought us together in some ways but has also pushed us further away from real life," says Lu, a former creative director at venture capital firm 500 Startups. "The virus is a warning for people in the Bay Area that we can't just come here and take and take. We have to give, too."
https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/health-and-wellness/virus-forces-silicon-valley-to-reset-its-moral-compass-20200420-p54lib
在山谷的其他角落，人们正在开发测试试剂盒和可能的疫苗，以及用于治疗大流行的社会和经济疾病的软件。较小的公司已经针对病毒创建了全新的商业模式。这些项目可以像一个提醒人们要洗手的应用程序一样简单，也可以是一个将用户与布鲁克林的理发师联系起来的应用程序，以获取有关如何在家剪发的课程。
在一些技术专家中，人们感觉到近年来他们的一些工作已经变成了雇佣军或轻率的尝试，目的是利用长期的技术繁荣，利用那些能够满足沿海富裕精英人士异想天开的应用程序，而不是满足其他人的紧迫需求世界。
风险投资公司500 Startups的前创意总监卢说：“ Facebook，Snapchat和最近十年的技术以某种方式使我们团结在一起，但也使我们远离现实生活。” “这种病毒向海湾地区的人们发出警告，我们不能只是来这里接受和接受。我们也必须付出。”
UQ
张岸元：逆水行舟 难言趋势
...
至于第四轮、第五轮冲击很难预测。在此，我们依然只能基于已有的知识、经验和信仰，做静态展望。
https://club.6parkbbs.com/finance/index.php?app=forum&act=threadview&tid=14360927
后疫情时期国际环境的变与不变
大规模疫病流行是人类生活的组成部分。疫病是放大镜，放大了社会运行中既有的种种不平衡不公正；疫病是加速器，加速了社会发展中既有的长期趋势既定方向。记住，是放大、加速，不是无中生有，创造出充满新的矛盾和趋势的新世界。
我们渴望改变，渴望从疫情期间社会政治经济生活的变化中，看到未来世界的影子。知识分子尤其如此，他们希望疫情带来重大变化，暗合他们信奉的理论，验证他们此前未能如愿的判断。历次疫情之后，我们能观察到防控治疗技术的进步、公共卫生理念的更新、防灾减灾组织的完善、物资储备水平的提升。但仅此而已。人类生活没有变化，人性的优点和缺点一切如故。梅毒可以一度成为欧洲上流社会的时髦，艾滋病没有使得人类更加洁身自好，埃博拉从未阻止人们前往非洲。本次疫情也是一样，灾疫之后人们会以最快速度忘却灾疫，这就是人性。
UQ
中国被爆发生“甲壳类谜之病毒”疫情 无法保证不突变传人
文章来源: 自由时报 于 2020-04-29
https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/04/29/9409327.html
中国境内新冠肺炎疫情未平，却又被日媒踢爆已经发生「甲壳类谜之病毒」疫情，爆发的原因及其传播方式尚不清楚，可能是藉由水作为媒介传播，这种病毒目前不会传染给人，但不保证它不会如同禽流感病毒般，突变后传染给人类。
根据日本《周刊邮报》（NEWSポストセブン）报导，《中国渔业年鑑》2014年12月曾经记载，农业农村部渔业司的水产科学研究院，当时曾经在浙江省的虾养殖场发现这种神秘病毒，确认是「十足目虹彩病毒」（DIV1），它是一种高传染性的病毒，不仅杀死虾，还会杀死龙虾和螃蟹等「十足目甲壳动物」。
据悉，当虾感染这种病毒时，虾的颜色会开始变红、壳会变软并沉入水中，一旦发生这种情况就没有办法解决，且病毒会在几天内扩散到整个水产养殖池，若有发现虾子因此死亡，附近的池塘都得一併清除、抽乾，否则病毒传播的速度将会非常快速。
目前在中国太平洋沿岸的11个省市中都发现了这种病毒，中国《水产前沿杂志》证实这项消息，并提到中国在2019年的採样的病毒分析数据还没有出来，2020年的监测还在进行中，但已知这种病毒在中国主要的虾类养殖地区广泛传播，状况相当紧急，目前没有特效药处理。
UQ