The stock market is trading in mixed to modestly lower fashion, but it's a sideshow relative to what is going on in the oil market. WTO crude futures for May delivery have turned negative (that's right, negative)! They are currently at -$11.42/bbl (down 162% for the day). This May contract expires tomorrow, but a few key takeaways from the pricing on the May contract are (1) no one wants to take physical delivery tomorrow because of storage constraints and (2) to incent someone to take the oil, producers are literally paying for the oil to be taken away. They would pay to have it taken away because the cost to shut down wells is an even bigger price for them to pay. In any event, it is a shocking turn of events and another reminder that the world is "more than 15% screwed up," as Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks said earlier in a CNBC interview when he said the stock market has gotten ahead of itself with the current rebound, which left it down only 15% from its high. Looking out the oil futures curve, things look better, but that's all relative today. The June contract is down 16.4% to $20.92/bbl. Continued fallout here will continue to feed concerns about default risk in the energy space, which would then bleed through to the financial sector (-2.1%). Separately, it was noted a short time ago that there will not be a vote today in the Senate on small business funding because the two sides are still negotiating. The Russell 2000 is down 0.4%; the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.5%; the S&P 500 is down 1.3%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.8%. 商品期货不同于金融利率期货， 后者如股指，外汇，国债等，再怎么滴也不可能为负，但商品期货可能，虽然极少见到，今天五月原油期货是个极端例子。 但是因此巨赔得人或机构也许不多，我的broker从上周5 就不能交易5月的原油（避免physical delivery），主力合约已经变为六月了。 商品期货（原油，咖啡，天然气，大豆，小麦，玉米，可可，橘汁，铜，铁矿石等等）不好做，搞不好一夜回到解放前，今天又开了一回眼界。
USO has 80 percent June and 20 percent July. UCO is 2X of USL, it has 8% May, 8% June and 8% July, 8% August and spread the contracts evenly across 12 months. All calls on USO/UCO/USL are up today despite price were down 10%, many USL calls are up over 100%. 微信群一堆人从一个多月群就跟着所谓的高手开始抄底油的 uwt归0了继续买uso uco的买 我好心劝了 金气油不懂的别碰 可惜不听啊 钱太多咋整
USO has 80 percent June and 20 percent July. UCO is 2X of USL, it has 8% May, 8% June and 8% July, 8% August and spread the contracts evenly across 12 months. All calls on USO/UCO/USL are up today despite price were down 10%, many USL calls are up over 100%. 微信群一堆人从一个多月群就跟着所谓的高手开始抄底油的 uwt归0了继续买uso uco的买 我好心劝了 金气油不懂的别碰 可惜不听啊 钱太多咋整 qznds805 发表于 4/20/2020 7:32:00 PM
Some screwed up oil pricing
The stock market is trading in mixed to modestly lower fashion, but it's a sideshow relative to what is going on in the oil market.
WTO crude futures for May delivery have turned negative (that's right, negative)! They are currently at -$11.42/bbl (down 162% for the day). This May contract expires tomorrow, but a few key takeaways from the pricing on the May contract are (1) no one wants to take physical delivery tomorrow because of storage constraints and (2) to incent someone to take the oil, producers are literally paying for the oil to be taken away. They would pay to have it taken away because the cost to shut down wells is an even bigger price for them to pay.
In any event, it is a shocking turn of events and another reminder that the world is "more than 15% screwed up," as Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks said earlier in a CNBC interview when he said the stock market has gotten ahead of itself with the current rebound, which left it down only 15% from its high.
Looking out the oil futures curve, things look better, but that's all relative today. The June contract is down 16.4% to $20.92/bbl. Continued fallout here will continue to feed concerns about default risk in the energy space, which would then bleed through to the financial sector (-2.1%).
Separately, it was noted a short time ago that there will not be a vote today in the Senate on small business funding because the two sides are still negotiating.
The Russell 2000 is down 0.4%; the Nasdaq Composite is down 0.5%; the S&P 500 is down 1.3%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.8%.
商品期货不同于金融利率期货，
后者如股指，外汇，国债等，再怎么滴也不可能为负，但商品期货可能，虽然极少见到，今天五月原油期货是个极端例子。
但是因此巨赔得人或机构也许不多，我的broker从上周5 就不能交易5月的原油（避免physical delivery），主力合约已经变为六月了。
商品期货（原油，咖啡，天然气，大豆，小麦，玉米，可可，橘汁，铜，铁矿石等等）不好做，搞不好一夜回到解放前，今天又开了一回眼界。
现在六月合约虽然还在20以上，但可能的情况是：
20不是底，10块也不是铁底，0都可能不是底！
既然5月合约在到期之日前能变0变负，那6月合约有什么是不可能的呢？
但是另外一个方面，这种极端情况也比较可能是见底或即将见底的信号，真要捞底石油，
觉得买 USO 这个 ETF 或油股 ETF 比较好，一倍杠杆的，不要2x,3x那种的，至少不会清零，期货很难搞很多trick。
那你就short WTI june future好了，现在还能卖20多,等下个月这时候再买回来
一切皆有可能，要是涨呢，而且觉得涨的可能性大于跌。
我还是老实玩玩sp500期指算了，原油这种还真是难以琢磨
-37美元/桶！美油史上首次收于负值
油价彻底崩了！周一美国WTI原油期货5月合约价格开盘后一路跳水，截至美东时间2:30收盘，最终下跌305.97%，收报-37.63美元/桶，史上首次收于负值。这意味着投资者进行WTI原油实物交割将收到现金，油运和存储成本已超过了石油本身的价值。
价格的大幅跳水与交割日临近有关。原油期货5月合约将于4月21日到期，为了避免被强制平仓，部分交易者往往会提前平掉5月份的合约，重新建仓下6月的合约，造成5月份合约出现许多卖盘，价格大跌。
此外，供需失衡是导致油价大跌的重要原因。4月第二周，美国原油库存猛增1900万桶，连续第二周创史上最大单周增幅。而最新研究数据显示，4月全球原油需求将收缩约2900万桶/天，2020年全球石油需求将暴跌至创纪录的930万桶/天，需求陷入严重瘫痪。
周一，WTI6月原油期货收盘刷新收盘历史低点至20美元/桶上方。有分析师指出，从美国6月交割原油期货合约来看，负价格仍是例外，而不是全球原油市场的常态。但美银美林表示，若需求不能回升，预计WTI原油6月份期货合约价格也将转负。瑞穗期货主管Bob Yawger：WTI原油期货跌至负值，这是历史性的一天。这表明没有空间储存原油，基本要随水冲走，原油一文不值。
在原油价格持续下跌的背景下，全球已有两家石油“巨头”倒下。4月20日，“新加坡油王”兴隆集团提出破产保护申请，寻求债务重组。本月初，美国怀丁石油公司已宣布破产。
当地时间20日的白宫记者会上，特朗普宣布将利用当下国际油价暴跌的时机购入7500万桶原油，以加强美国石油战略储备（SPR）。