新冠传染病毒的流传图谱

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2_25_744
楼主 (北美华人网)
最近一篇剑桥的文章引起五毛的轰动, 认为抓住了美国是新冠源头的重要证据。 我大概看了一下, 环球网基本上是指鹿为马。 论文基本有几个疑点。 希望有基因大牛指点一下
In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.

原作 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117 Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes
环球洗地文 https://s3.uczzd.cn/webview/news?app=uc-iflow&aid=5373213927615713583&cid=10520&zzd_from=uc-iflow&uc_param_str=dndsfrvesvntnwpfgicp&recoid=16900807336239716824&rd_type=share&sp_gz=0&pagetype=share&btifl=100&uc_share_depth=1

原作的数据源 https://www.pnas.org/highwire/filestream/921144/field_highwire_adjunct_files/1/pnas.2004999117.sd01.xlsx
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2_25_744
回复 1楼2_25_744的帖子 首先, A B C 三型如何确认先后关系? 我们dou知道DNA双链可以来源推断。 但是RNA单链只有变异可能,A变异到B 和B变异到A如何确认???  如果从先发现A还是先发现B 的样本的话, 提供的数据里, 12月的病例都是中国武汉的, 都是B, 后来才有A, 这为啥坑定A是B的祖先? 如果是按照和蝙蝠BatCovRaTG13病毒的相识程度, 也有一样的疑惑, 类似度96%一定是类似度95%的祖先么? 不能先变异5% 然后发现不好, 在退回去1%么?
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2_25_744
其次, 如果就算确认了B是A的后代, 由于爆发先后, 坑定武汉是A B的源头的。 拿为什么武汉没有A的病例, 武汉都说了12/1就有了第一个截瘫病人, 为啥第一个病毒分型标本是12月底了, 不是很可疑么? 美国化验都要留血样备份, 中国备份都销毁了, 甚至没有。 为啥消灭A病毒样本呢, 难道太容易和传染源挂钩么? 现在按照公布的数据, 美国A类型死亡率比中国的高, C类更高, 不是很像估计投毒到外国大佬怪, 然后不小心自己泄露了个前锋么?
y
yichuan
日本和印度,本该爆发,却没爆,奇怪 德国,就算爆了,死的也少,为啥呢?