Fed 这么个印钱法,大家有啥要注意能保护自己资产不贬值吗?

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crystal007
楼主 (北美华人网)
是不是要奔着中国当年万元户,现在啥也不是的路子去了? cash is king 在股市跌的时候有用,可是在狂放水时候呢?钱都放股市也惊心动魄啊,万一哪天fed 托市拖不住了呢? 买房子现在价格不低,出租也困难在疫情没有结束之前。

大家有啥思路?黄金虽然现在不错但是一直受打压
p
pig0019
真金白银
d
demantoid
黄金会涨,涨幅就不好说了,有闲钱可以买些。
d
demantoid
我还买宝石,反正要是乱的时候撸下个红宝石金戒指或者钻戒说不定能放你上飞机至少换几顿饭,哈哈
衣凡卡
我还买宝石,反正要是乱的时候撸下个红宝石金戒指或者钻戒说不定能放你上飞机至少换几顿饭,哈哈
demantoid 发表于 4/9/2020 10:44:47 PM

在哪儿买
a
arabdopsis
这种成色很难看清楚 淘宝有以假乱真的
x
xiaojiejie
美元是世界货币呀,Fed才敢这么印钱。放心吧,啥事儿没有
C
CleverBeaver
这个好像讨论过一轮 并无解 韭菜的钱就是用来贬值的
c
canogood
真金白银,真枪实弹,都不如花掉,花掉的钱才是自己的
P
Pingpink
因为没有资产所以也没有怎么保护自己的资产不贬值一说,现在疫情那么严重,想保命是真的。
c
crazycloud
全球货币放水,股债双市不稳,原物料市场也不明朗,翻来覆去看,真的只有黄金能保值了。油在最低点,或许也可以。
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Puma2019
你担心通货膨胀已经发了好几个帖子了。 如果你真的在美国,我建议你不必担心;该吃吃,该喝喝,该买房该投资,就买房/投资。08年以后联储救市,也是一帮人天天喊通货膨胀。结果联储等了这么多年,也没有看到通货膨胀,反而差点紧缩。这次喊通货膨胀的就少多了。 你要不在美国,那么美国的事情您就别担心了。
b
bangobunny
你们讨论的这么热闹 是不是买本经济学书看看
c
cincyshu
我还买宝石,反正要是乱的时候撸下个红宝石金戒指或者钻戒说不定能放你上飞机至少换几顿饭,哈哈
demantoid 发表于 4/9/2020 10:44:47 PM
哈哈 我也是 前不久才买了颗18卡加的帕拉伊巴 乱的话 宝石们都可以直接带走 放久一点就留给子女们
a
acer
我还买宝石,反正要是乱的时候撸下个红宝石金戒指或者钻戒说不定能放你上飞机至少换几顿饭,哈哈
demantoid 发表于 4/9/2020 10:44:47 PM


老话说的好,“盛世珠宝 乱世黄金”, 珠宝不保值,乱的时候可能连个馒头都换不到
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demantoid
哈哈 我也是 前不久才买了颗18卡加的帕拉伊巴 乱的话 宝石们都可以直接带走 放久一点就留给子女们

cincyshu 发表于 4/9/2020 11:38:50 PM


热,还能随身带着不漏眼。。。18卡的paraiba可以上拍卖会了,富婆妥妥的呀!
d
demantoid
这种成色很难看清楚 淘宝有以假乱真的
arabdopsis 发表于 4/9/2020 11:08:38 PM


懂行的肉眼也能看得出真假,而且贵宝石一般都要配证书
u
unclejoe
买黄金, 或bitcoin。
d
demantoid


老话说的好,“盛世珠宝 乱世黄金”, 珠宝不保值,乱的时候可能连个馒头都换不到

acer 发表于 4/9/2020 11:48:16 PM


纳粹没收犹太人的财产难道只把金扒走不要宝石吗?中国有话黄金有价玉无价你可以看看几十年是翡翠红宝石涨的多还是黄金多,而且你不能搬着金砖走吧
c
crazycloud
本人觉得珠宝跟艺术品一样,更像是风险资产,不是避险资产。不过真要到了乱世了,什么资产都不管用,保住命最重要。。。
热血热胜红日光
港真,我郑重推荐Personal Capital. 他家的规模还不大但是我比较认同他们的理论和实际平台。你如果感兴趣可以先试试他们的软件,不要钱,如果用他们的服务会收费但是从中长期来看得到的回报会超过费用。特点: 1. 资产分散到几类大范畴:美国股市,国际股市,美国债券,国际债券,其他资产(房地产,原油,贵金属等)按比例分配 2. 在股市内继续按行业分配,可以避免index fund的缺点。现在SP500的一个内在问题就是它是按个股的市值配置的,科技类的几个股票FAANG涨的厉害的情况下,风险就会增大 3. PC的目的是在投资回报和风险曲线上找到一个平衡点,在某个风险范围内把回报率最大化 4. 如果资产比较多,他们有私人银行服务,提供很多有价值的建议,包括税务优化,401K投资建议等等。 他们的收费水平也比较合理,比很多financial advisor更低,而且他们是fiduciary,只靠简单收费,不会从后门拿钱。 我用了一段时间感觉不错。据说他们96%的客户用了一段时间后选择留下。有问题可以私信问我。
c
chromium
如果真的担心,抗inflation的都可以,股市,房市,commodity, 和inflation 挂钩的债券比如TIPS IBond 等都可以啊。 不过这次宽松最终结果贫富分化加剧,比全面通货膨胀的可能性更大,所以也没必要一定要盯着通膨。 只要别发展成滞涨,就还是可以规避资产贬值的
M
Melrose8
Markkk
l
lianzi
我的天,大家都不上基本的金融课吗?这个钱99.99999%的都不进入流通。
F
Fhu
现在面临的是通缩,新的CPI出来了,通胀可能是长期事情了。近期time horizon是通缩concern大很多
大衣被禁
Trading 平台101就是不要用小的。 这次用Robinhood 的都知道为什么了。
港真,我郑重推荐Personal Capital. 他家的规模还不大但是我比较认同他们的理论和实际平台。你如果感兴趣可以先试试他们的软件,不要钱,如果用他们的服务会收费但是从中长期来看得到的回报会超过费用。特点: 1. 资产分散到几类大范畴:美国股市,国际股市,美国债券,国际债券,其他资产(房地产,原油,贵金属等)按比例分配 2. 在股市内继续按行业分配,可以避免index fund的缺点。现在SP500的一个内在问题就是它是按个股的市值配置的,科技类的几个股票FAANG涨的厉害的情况下,风险就会增大 3. PC的目的是在投资回报和风险曲线上找到一个平衡点,在某个风险范围内把回报率最大化 4. 如果资产比较多,他们有私人银行服务,提供很多有价值的建议,包括税务优化,401K投资建议等等。 他们的收费水平也比较合理,比很多financial advisor更低,而且他们是fiduciary,只靠简单收费,不会从后门拿钱。 我用了一段时间感觉不错。据说他们96%的客户用了一段时间后选择留下。有问题可以私信问我。 热血热胜红日光 发表于 4/10/2020 3:12:00 AM
f
firmiana
现在是危机下担心流动性啊 不过长期会不会滞涨就不知道了
大衣被禁
???? 这个钱的作用是inject liquidity啊。
我的天,大家都不上基本的金融课吗?这个钱99.99999%的都不进入流通。 lianzi 发表于 4/10/2020 10:47:00 AM
梦之啸
如果真乱世了,宝石开采就无人限制,会烂大街;只有黄金是全宇宙的货币硬通货
清一色
现在疫情那么严重,想保命是真的
糖小蛮
倾巢之下焉有完卵 ---发自Huaren 官方 iOS APP
c
carrrrrol
https://youtu.be/unPqmy7YgpA
昨天看了贝版的视频讲QE与通货膨胀的关系后,就不是很担心了。建议大家都看看。 话说,小飞侠到底是谁...
如果到了要用黄金和宝石的时候,社会次序都乱了,那时候还不如有几把枪来的实在。枪顶在别人脑子上,珠宝黄金都是你的了。随便说说,我个人没有枪。希望不会到那种境界。
w
waterlilly9
劳力士金表,乱世也是硬通货
n
niuheliang
你担心通货膨胀已经发了好几个帖子了。

如果你真的在美国,我建议你不必担心;该吃吃,该喝喝,该买房该投资,就买房/投资。08年以后联储救市,也是一帮人天天喊通货膨胀。结果联储等了这么多年,也没有看到通货膨胀,反而差点紧缩。这次喊通货膨胀的就少多了。

你要不在美国,那么美国的事情您就别担心了。
Puma2019 发表于 4/9/2020 11:18:06 PM


手动点赞。

祝黄金托早日免疫。
c
chromium
现在面临的是通缩,新的CPI出来了,通胀可能是长期事情了。近期time horizon是通缩concern大很多
Fhu 发表于 4/10/2020 10:50:07 AM


历史上通缩一般和银根收紧有关联,现在这种大宽松情况下,通缩发生概率不大。
要转化为通胀,一个重要指标就是工资大幅提高,但在现在经济状况和失业率大增的情况下,不太可能发生,所以短期通膨概率也不大。
所以最可能的结果又是辗转完成资本分配,贫富分化加剧08年宽松后果那样。
通缩和通膨都不可怕,因为个人投资者都有方式可以避免资产贬值。
但如果印钱过度复工遥遥无期而让小概率的滞涨发生了,那就真的要头疼了
彭久舍
现在的10万存款,20年后肯定不值钱了。 所以投资啊,买房也好,买股票也好。 买商铺也好。
c
cricketgao
mark 一下 一下 一下啊
青团
经常会买点银元,存银行里.
热血热胜红日光
Trading 平台101就是不要用小的。
这次用Robinhood 的都知道为什么了。

大衣被禁 发表于 4/10/2020 10:51:26 AM


Personal Capital和Robinhood 完全是两个不同的动物哈。Personal Capital是个数据集成和分析平台,不能用来做交易。普通人完全可以免费用他们的工具来对自己的财物进行定期追踪。PC的主要竞争对手是Intuit的Mint.com, Mint他们赚钱也是靠广告,推荐信用卡什么的挣点小钱。

PC自己有一个investment committee, 在他们那里有一定规模资产的客户享受私人银行业务服务。PC挣钱是作为financial advisor收费,客户的财产是放在Custodian那里的不在PC(Bank of New York Mellon), BNY Mellon托管的总资产的量很大,如果你是做金融肯定知道。

贴个图哈

c
chromium


Personal Capital和Robinhood 完全是两个不同的动物哈。Personal Capital是个数据集成和分析平台,不能用来做交易。普通人完全可以免费用他们的工具来对自己的财物进行定期追踪。PC的主要竞争对手是Intuit的Mint.com, Mint他们赚钱也是靠广告,推荐信用卡什么的挣点小钱。

PC自己有一个investment committee, 在他们那里有一定规模资产的客户享受私人银行业务服务。PC挣钱是作为financial advisor收费,客户的财产是放在Custodian那里的不在PC(Bank of New York Mellon), BNY Mellon托管的总资产的量很大,如果你是做金融肯定知道。

贴个图哈



热血热胜红日光 发表于 4/10/2020 9:22:04 PM


Personal capital 和 Wealthfront, SigFig, Motif, Betterment 这些差不多,最早引领portfolio自动化的那一批,但后来Schwab和别的大银行自己推出自己平台,很多交易平台取消交易费后,这些小平台受挤压很严重,能不能长久生存下去是个问题。所以用它们的跟踪和统计功能可以,用它们来管自己的投资要三思。
热血热胜红日光
回复 41楼chromium的帖子

请不吝赐教:

看来遇到真正的内行了,那你觉得Personal Capital最大的风险是什么呢?按理说客户的钱都在custodian account里,就算PC 倒了,客户的资产安全应该不受影响啊。而且PC倒了,我猜测BNY Mellon Pershing肯定第一个跳出来要接收这些客户。我的理解是PC要收费,如果你自己有时间精力而且能坚持理性投资的话,最好的选择是Vanguard,费用最低,不收费。但是PC有CPA, investment advisor, 能帮客户做财务和税务规划。不然的话一般人也懒得找CPA给自己做税务规划吧。 而且他们开始一段时间不收费。跟着学看他们操作一下,如果你不想付费,那直接再转出到Vanguard就行了。我试过其他的一些financial advisor,从Morgan Stanley, Merrill到LPL,感觉他们的服务都不怎么样。很少有人能把税务规划弄好讲清楚的。有的还成天玩一些derivative,搞structured notes, 卖人寿保险什么的。

我自以为商学院毕业懂finance/accounting,但是真的自己管理资产的时候要不是家里事忙,要不是有behavioral bias, 回头看本金倒是没有遭受太大损失但是错失了不少growth opportunity. 我看了https://www.financialsamurai.com/personal-capital-versus-schwab-intelligent-portfolios/ 的文章,不知道是不是收费的软文哈,里面推荐的是用PC 提供的免费工具提高自己的投资效率,不找PC Advisor.
我在用他们的服务之前做过以下研究:
1. Forbes排名 https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliecooling/2019/12/12/top-100-registered-investment-advisors-rias-of-2019-ranked-by-ria-channel/#310855db2bc5 2019年他们排第三,第一名是Plante Moran, 给富人做wealth management的
2. 去Glassdoor, 专门找留差评的员工的留言,看看到底这个公司有什么内幕,一般人在这个公司干什么干多久
m
mtforfun
因为没有资产所以也没有怎么保护自己的资产不贬值一说,现在疫情那么严重,想保命是真的。
r
relay
乘着机票旅馆cruise及其便宜,提前预定明年的旅游,这样就能花最少的钱,得到最大的收益,保值。哈哈哈。
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phantombamboo
别把现金留手里,股市房市都放放
a
alex_alex
买黄金。
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llssqqww72
回复 1楼crystal007的帖子 楼主,你和你家人的健康,你的谋生技能,对孩子的培养,这些东西是永远不贬值的,所以把钱花在这些上面,该花多少就花多少。如果这样都还用不完的话,你还怕啥贬值呢。
热血热胜红日光


Personal capital 和 Wealthfront, SigFig, Motif, Betterment 这些差不多,最早引领portfolio自动化的那一批,但后来Schwab和别的大银行自己推出自己平台,很多交易平台取消交易费后,这些小平台受挤压很严重,能不能长久生存下去是个问题。所以用它们的跟踪和统计功能可以,用它们来管自己的投资要三思。

chromium 发表于 4/10/2020 9:44:55 PM


Former Financial Advisor - 04/14/2019

I worked at Personal Capital full-time Pros -Health bennies are great, not good...repeat, great. -Incredibly streamlined organization across all functions (sometimes to a fault, more on that later) -Great growth opportunities for recent grads/early career folks (not for mid-career/advanced career...again, more on that later) -Really smart people for the most part at the top and in the C-suite
Cons -No/small 401k match Until very recently it didn't exist, right now, it ain't much; especially when compared to the rest of the fin-serv industry. This is written off due to the fact that the company isn't operating in the black yet, but they still keep getting millions in VC backing. Seeing hundreds of millions being pumped into the company by super rich people/organizations while providing very little to the employees who could stand to benefit from a 401k match the most (operations/associate roles) is a bit tough to swallow after awhile...but this is my opinion. -Such a streamlined organization can make advancement opportunities rare after year 2, rarer still after year 3+ Some reviews will point to a "boys club" which I won't completely trivialize here. At the risk of using a double negative, the "boys club" doesn't NOT exist, but it's hardly the skull and bones society some reviews would have you believe. Also, having good relationships with the right people will always help, regardless of actual competence. This is the case in practically 100% of companies across the country and will always be true. A true meritocracy exists exactly nowhere outside of the die-hard capitalist's mind. This is the case at Personal Capital as it is the case everywhere. I would contend that the organization has streamlined itself to the point that it's somewhat difficult to standout from the crowd based on job function. You become something of a cog in the machine. This makes it a great place to come when you're 23-25 because if you succeed even a little bit, due to sheer turnover alone you'll get promoted 2 times in 2 years or less just by sticking it out. It's not as great if you're 30+ and career motivated with goals of learning more outside of financial planning. Quite frankly, outside of advisory work, there ain't much else for you to do. Their SF/Bay Area offices is where development/senior leadership operate and it exists on a literal peninsula and a figurative island. Career growth is sold heavily up front, but in actuality, they can probably only point to a handful of examples of real internal movement outside of just moving people up and down the organization chain on the advisory side of things. On the advisory side, it's a great place to go if you want to learn how to be an advisor and do financial planning when you're in your 20s. On the sales side of things, the pay is fine and it's heavily reliant on their incentive structure, as most sales jobs are and should be. The leads come to you but you do have to call them and you do have to sell them. People don't just up and decide to move hundreds of thousands of investment dollars over to some app online because they feel like it. It is not a cushy job to be a sales person. It is a grind and if you're a grinder, you will succeed. If you're not, you won't. However, after a couple of years, you WILL walk away a far better sales person; the sheer volume with force you to be. On the service side, it gets pretty cushy after 9-12 months which is something of a blessing while also a curse. Personal Capital trumpets their retention rate, but the truth is in the advisory space, pretty much every advisor (not brokerage firm; advisor) retains their clients at a 90%+ clip. You do have to call your clients, but they have so much automation on the planning side, it's really not difficult to keep a decent relationship. There will always be something new to talk about every 6 months or so. The service side is a good place to be if you want to make a decent income with amazing work/life balance. They'll even pay for your CFP (or at least most of it...just not your CE once you get it which seems...misguided...I digress). The problem is that once you get tired of doing that, there isn't much to which you can move. Unless you learn how to code, you're pretty much stuck there. Management/team lead positions don't come up very often and when they do, the positions are basically filled by one of the more senior advisors who is all but shoulder tapped for it. There has been a lot of turnover of advisors, both sales and service, who are 27-35 and have worked there for 2+ years. It's the nature of the beast, unfortunately. Once you get to that threshold, if you're smart, you see the writing on the wall and you realize that you can either A) get paid more someplace else for a similar job function, or B) have to go someplace else for career growth. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there's much that can be done about it at this point. Also, read the other reviews with a grain of salt. Some of them seem an awful lot like dummy reviews written by recruiting staff under fake accounts. I'm not saying for certain that's the case, but I'm also not going to say for certain that it isn't. Also, even if it is all real employees and real reviews, the company is all of 10 years old with the overwhelming majority of employees having less than 3 years of tenure. Everyone is chugging the Kool aid when they write these things so just remember that.
Advice to Management I'm not really sure on this one from a general sense. Personal Capital is going to make a mint from a profit perspective here in the next 5 years. The business model is just too good and the technology is seriously class leading in terms of what is client facing. They call the growth they've experienced being "on a rocketship" and it's true. It'll be a cash cow. If that's what you want, it's a fine place to work; not great, fine. There are some tactical things that they could improve on, but seriously, if you're interested in fin-serv and you're in your 20s, spend a couple years here to get some experience and then move on. Who knows, maybe you'll get lucky and find yourself into a 5+ year experience there. Also, match your 401k and pay your employees and stop saying that shorting on either is because you're not profitable. We all see the checks the VCs write and can figure out the valuation. We know y'all have the resources to do it so stop playing.
热血热胜红日光
回复 48楼热血热胜红日光的帖子

根据员工留言, Wikipedia, SEC registration,可以大概推断出以下情报:

1. 员工是25 到 35岁的年轻人。平均在这个公司干3年左右,一般的员工收入7万左右,干得特别好的能到10万,20万(应该是做销售的)
2. 这个公司有9年历史,到目前还有VC不断投钱,他们还没有盈利
3. Business model有合理性。赚钱靠大客户(资产百万以上),补贴开发团队。
4. 从其他渠道可以看到该平台有1百万到150万用户,但是收费的用户不是很多
5. Robo-investing+human advisor 收费水平比较高,百万以上的收托管资产的年费率0.79%,按月收费,但是前几个月免费(可以商量)
6. 从其他渠道看,如果不满意可以做in kind tranfer, 把资产转移到Vanguard, 不需要卖股票
7. 最新的 AUM 是12.3 billion. 推算出他们公司现在年收入大概6千万到9千万之间,假定平均客户资产在100到200万之间,他们大概有6000到12000收费客户。也就是平台用户里的1%左右是最后发展成收费客户了的
8. 这个公司大概有150到200员工?(我猜的)

Personal Capital was founded by Bill Harris, Rob Foregger, Louie Gasparini and Paul Bergholm in 2009.[4] Personal Capital was formerly known as SafeCorp Financial Corp.[5] The name was changed in 2010 and publicly launched on September 9, 2011.[5][6] Since 2012, Personal Capital has been registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an investment advisor.[7] In both 2014 and 2015, Personal Capital was named to CNBC Disruptor 50 list.[8][4] In June 2015, Personal Capital had over $1.5 billion in assets under management.[9] In September 2015, there were 800,000 people using Personal Capital's free investing tools to monitor $150 billion in assets.[9] In June 2016, National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) teamed up with Personal Capital through a financial education program.[10] In December 2016, Personal Capital raised $25 million in Series E funding from IGM Financial, closing the round at $75 million.[11]
更有意思的是创始人Bill Harris。这里有个很有意思的interview - https://www.americanbanker.com/news/ex-paypal-ceo-bill-harris-launches-neobank-for-struggling-households
c
chromium
回复 41楼chromium的帖子

请不吝赐教:

看来遇到真正的内行了,那你觉得Personal Capital最大的风险是什么呢?按理说客户的钱都在custodian account里,就算PC 倒了,客户的资产安全应该不受影响啊。而且PC倒了,我猜测BNY Mellon Pershing肯定第一个跳出来要接收这些客户。我的理解是PC要收费,如果你自己有时间精力而且能坚持理性投资的话,最好的选择是Vanguard,费用最低,不收费。但是PC有CPA, investment advisor, 能帮客户做财务和税务规划。不然的话一般人也懒得找CPA给自己做税务规划吧。 而且他们开始一段时间不收费。跟着学看他们操作一下,如果你不想付费,那直接再转出到Vanguard就行了。我试过其他的一些financial advisor,从Morgan Stanley, Merrill到LPL,感觉他们的服务都不怎么样。很少有人能把税务规划弄好讲清楚的。有的还成天玩一些derivative,搞structured notes, 卖人寿保险什么的。

我自以为商学院毕业懂finance/accounting,但是真的自己管理资产的时候要不是家里事忙,要不是有behavioral bias, 回头看本金倒是没有遭受太大损失但是错失了不少growth opportunity. 我看了https://www.financialsamurai.com/personal-capital-versus-schwab-intelligent-portfolios/ 的文章,不知道是不是收费的软文哈,里面推荐的是用PC 提供的免费工具提高自己的投资效率,不找PC Advisor.
我在用他们的服务之前做过以下研究:
1. Forbes排名 https://www.forbes.com/sites/juliecooling/2019/12/12/top-100-registered-investment-advisors-rias-of-2019-ranked-by-ria-channel/#310855db2bc5 2019年他们排第三,第一名是Plante Moran, 给富人做wealth management的
2. 去Glassdoor, 专门找留差评的员工的留言,看看到底这个公司有什么内幕,一般人在这个公司干什么干多久

热血热胜红日光 发表于 4/10/2020 10:04:49 PM


Haha. 我不是来打击你的,大家都明白人,祝你都顺利。PC统计部分做的还是不错的。你说的对的,投进去的钱进custodian 都很保险的,不会有本金损失问题。
X
Xiaoliang20
贷款吧 等钱贬值
今生无悔
我的天,大家都不上基本的金融课吗?这个钱99.99999%的都不进入流通。
lianzi 发表于 4/10/2020 10:47:59 AM

什么意思?求解惑
今生无悔
回复 1楼crystal007的帖子

楼主,你和你家人的健康,你的谋生技能,对孩子的培养,这些东西是永远不贬值的,所以把钱花在这些上面,该花多少就花多少。如果这样都还用不完的话,你还怕啥贬值呢。
llssqqww72 发表于 4/10/2020 10:54:01 PM

很同意这个。