“California was welcoming as many as 8,000 Chinese nationals daily into our airports. ” 特别服，travelers from China都不足以表达，即便数字会变小，还是一定要用Chinese nationals才能让作者觉得到位。
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“ 说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“
说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的 CleverBeaver 发表于 4/9/2020 1:56:12 AM
“ We performed a retrospective study that evaluated all nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected between January 1, 2020, and February 26, 2020, from inpatients and outpatients who had negative results by routine respiratory virus testing (respiratory pathogen or respiratory viral panels [GenMark Diagnostics] or Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV [Cepheid]) and had not been tested for SARS-CoV-2. ”
“ A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020.”
“ Results from this screening strategy support that the burden of disease in the San Francisco Bay Area early in the pandemic was low; less than 1% of all symptomatic individuals with negative routine testing had SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
CDC的报告有关mortality部分节选： Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on April 2, 2020, 8.2% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 21, 2020 (week 12) were due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I). This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 12. The increase in P&I percentage is being driven primarily by an increase in pneumonia deaths (excluding deaths where influenza is also listed as a cause of death). The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia has increased sharply since the end of February, while those due to influenza increased at a more modest rate through early March and declined slightly during the week ending March 21. This could reflect an increase in deaths from pneumonia caused by non-influenza associated infections including COVID-19. CDC报告全文链接：https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“
说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的 CleverBeaver 发表于 4/9/2020 1:56:12 AM
“ We performed a retrospective study that evaluated all nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected between January 1, 2020, and February 26, 2020, from inpatients and outpatients who had negative results by routine respiratory virus testing (respiratory pathogen or respiratory viral panels [GenMark Diagnostics] or Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV [Cepheid]) and had not been tested for SARS-CoV-2. ”
“ A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020.”
“ Results from this screening strategy support that the burden of disease in the San Francisco Bay Area early in the pandemic was low; less than 1% of all symptomatic individuals with negative routine testing had SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“ 说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的
Curious to see the results. It's worth exploring, but highly unlikely in my opinion. Intuitively it just doesn't make sense either because we know when this virus is left unchecked without aggressive measures, it grows exponentially. If the hypothesis was true, the healthcare system would have felt it very soon after. I think findings from this JAMA article further support against that hypothesis.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764364
“ We performed a retrospective study that evaluated all nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected between January 1, 2020, and February 26, 2020, from inpatients and outpatients who had negative results by routine respiratory virus testing (respiratory pathogen or respiratory viral panels [GenMark Diagnostics] or Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV [Cepheid]) and had not been tested for SARS-CoV-2. ”
“ A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020.”
“ Results from this screening strategy support that the burden of disease in the San Francisco Bay Area early in the pandemic was low; less than 1% of all symptomatic individuals with negative routine testing had SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
same thing. if we already had community spread in the fall, then we might have even wider community spread in January, Feb. But as shown by the Stanford research, no samples from January and early/mid Feb from Stanford tested positive.
same thing. if we already had community spread in the fall, then we might have even wider community spread in January, Feb. But as shown by the Stanford research, no samples from January and early/mid Feb from Stanford tested positive.
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“ 说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的 CleverBeaver 发表于 4/9/2020 1:56:00 AM
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“
说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的 CleverBeaver 发表于 4/9/2020 1:56:12 AM
“ The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.“
说实话，我觉得这个猜想有可能是对的 CleverBeaver 发表于 4/9/2020 1:56:12 AM
有疑惑的同学，看一下33楼的猜想
另外，这个新闻绝对没有说源头在哪里，因为必须知道谁最先有才能知道源头，这个实验只是看我们这边什么时候有的
我对于肺炎的主要困惑在于，为什么地区差异这么大，而且不光是人口密集度可以解释的
特别服，travelers from China都不足以表达，即便数字会变小，还是一定要用Chinese nationals才能让作者觉得到位。
反正希望科学家们都摸着良心做事最好。
“ We performed a retrospective study that evaluated all nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected between January 1, 2020, and February 26, 2020, from inpatients and outpatients who had negative results by routine respiratory virus testing (respiratory pathogen or respiratory viral panels [GenMark Diagnostics] or Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV [Cepheid]) and had not been tested for SARS-CoV-2. ”
“ A total of 292 pools were screened, corresponding with 2740 nasopharyngeal samples and 148 bronchoalveolar lavage samples (Figure 1). The confirmed positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was 0.07% (2/2888) (Figure 2). The positive results were from nasopharyngeal samples collected on February 21, 2020, and on February 23, 2020.”
“ Results from this screening strategy support that the burden of disease in the San Francisco Bay Area early in the pandemic was low; less than 1% of all symptomatic individuals with negative routine testing had SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764364
还有一篇CDC最近出的报告我看一直没有人提，说surveillance data显示2月底以来非流感引起的肺炎死亡占比增加，或与covid19有关。没有定论，只有数据观察，与主题有那么一点点relevant，我借楼一起贴了供讨论：
来自@CDCGov的tweet： CDC report shows the percentage of deaths due to pneumonia not associated with flu has increased sharply since the end of February. This could be caused by #COVID19
原tweet地址：https://mobile.twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1247011146789457921
CDC的报告有关mortality部分节选： Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on April 2, 2020, 8.2% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 21, 2020 (week 12) were due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I). This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 12. The increase in P&I percentage is being driven primarily by an increase in pneumonia deaths (excluding deaths where influenza is also listed as a cause of death). The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia has increased sharply since the end of February, while those due to influenza increased at a more modest rate through early March and declined slightly during the week ending March 21. This could reflect an increase in deaths from pneumonia caused by non-influenza associated infections including COVID-19.
CDC报告全文链接：https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview.html
对，我觉得huaren网在这件事上有很多积极作用的
外宣的口径还是甩锅美国
主楼新闻里是测抗体
和这篇文章不一样
猜想是预先部分全民免疫了一下？
想多了
你去再看一遍新闻稿就明白了
我也想测
彻底病倒在公司发布全体wfh之前一周，早就待家里了，周围同事没有被我放倒
我家里人在南加，一月头就得了和我后来的症状一模一样的流感，也是周围没发现有人中招
一直怀疑我全家其实已有抗体
是的
目的一样啊，想看湾区是什么时候开始流行的。至少JAMA上面这篇1月到2月中下旬的回溯性分析没有显现当地当时有流行（2/2888 positives）
要是流行了，是怎样在没有任何停工停学居家的情况下，没有击穿医疗的，我是很感兴趣。
新冠有S和L两个亚种，L致死率高，症状严重
可能就是一流感，大号流感都算不上，摊手
不要这么一根筋好吗。多半原来是一个弱病毒，传播时间久了，就发展出毒性更强的了。不是说美国有全部5种新冠病毒吗？
Curious to see the results. It's worth exploring, but highly unlikely in my opinion. Intuitively it just doesn't make sense either because we know when this virus is left unchecked without aggressive measures, it grows exponentially. If the hypothesis was true, the healthcare system would have felt it very soon after. I think findings from this JAMA article further support against that hypothesis.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764364
Thank you! I saw this article today too!!
猜不出答案
但这是个好问题
same thing. if we already had community spread in the fall, then we might have even wider community spread in January, Feb. But as shown by the Stanford research, no samples from January and early/mid Feb from Stanford tested positive.
因为来湾区的大部分是亚洲人，比较自觉，而且对中国关闭国门较早，一月底就关闭了。
而纽约靠近欧洲，到纽约的欧洲人多，从中国传到欧洲，再从欧洲传入纽约，所以把纽约等东部地区放倒了。
关键是从纽约登陆的欧洲人多，至于为什么欧洲人严重，就得从加入一带一路的意大利说起。。。
不一样
比如我得过流感了 过一段时间体内有抗体 但鼻腔不一定还残存病毒
但是我好奇，怎么通过抗体检测，精准的知道是什么时候得的病呢？是不是看不同种类immunoglobulin的比例？
这个假设有可能的，据说大多数coronavirus对人类毒性都不大
这也许也能解释为什么大多数人轻症的
—————
不得不佩服一下这位层主的思路之清晰
同意的。湾区这次真的是地利人和都有。Twitter是第一个宣布wfh的，然后fb google这些大公司迅速跟进。那时候才3月初。谨慎的华人员工甚至在公司宣布之前就自己wfh了。湾区华人普遍很谨慎，很早（2月初开始）就少去超市，不去餐馆了。而且公共交通不发达，大家都开车。
是的，我周围有同事从西班牙旅游回来，一连咳嗽感冒了好几次
我们还聊西班牙流感和伤寒玛丽呢
圣诞节前，公司里很多人感冒特别严重，而且这感冒拖很久，不停的咳嗽一两周的样子。
、
应该不用检测 这就是瞎花钱
这次新冠肺炎人群的症状跟流感的症状差异太大 而且伴有猝死 急性衰竭这些典型症状 如果说人群中有一两个你会误诊漏诊 当轻症人数上了100以后几乎不可能漏诊
就连护士都明确的说这次病毒跟以往流感症状明显不同
这个猜想不可能
你是说早期的都是无症状感染者吗？
这和你在股市里表现出的智商和分析能力判若两人
这个新闻不是说源头在哪里，只是想要知道为什么加州防疫结果好
即使我们秋天就有了，也要比较其他地方什么时候有的呀
当然中共不会大方让人测的
是的是的 期待stanford medicine会有结果
我关注的原因是这个病毒有太多疑点了
既然sars1.0可以突然出现又突然不见，是不是就是由于毒性突然变得强/弱了？
那sars2.0可不可以也是这样呢？
关于为什么之前医疗系统没有瘫痪，楼里有位同学很好的解了惑，有兴趣的可以去爬一下楼
（不好意思…… 今天股市也在水下呢…… ）
我只是说，为什么会有人轻症有人重症，然后地区分布差异如此之大
hk的密集度远大于nyc吧，只死了四个人...
爬楼爬楼
33楼
那位层主智商绝对高
我去改一下主楼
我们也是类似的情况，十二月底，那次全家传染了，高烧，气喘，全身酸痛，之后咳嗽，测了flu医院说negative，症状从书面上看很像新冠没有旅行史，病毒应该是小孩从学校里带来的，那段时间一波波的孩子生病