An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
there is always a delay with mortality. once diagnosed, it takes days and weeks to know the outcomes. People don't die on the same day that they are diagnosed. Because we know this disease usually starts out mild and in a percentage of the population, it deteriorates in the second week. A more precise way to estimate (definitely not perfect by any means) is to divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed case as of a 1-2 week ago.
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
今天新闻会上开始就特别致哀纽约死了的人，我还琢磨怎么回事，数据上除了纽约今天官方的730个，全美也阵亡了快两千 （28735 new cases and 1925 new deaths in the United States）。这么看来纽约今天事实死亡的肯定上千了。 vvdd 发表于 4/7/2020 8:19:54 PM
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
今天新闻会上开始就特别致哀纽约死了的人，我还琢磨怎么回事，数据上除了纽约今天官方的730个，全美也阵亡了快两千 （28735 new cases and 1925 new deaths in the United States）。这么看来纽约今天事实死亡的肯定上千了。 vvdd 发表于 4/7/2020 8:19:54 PM
今天新闻会上开始就特别致哀纽约死了的人，我还琢磨怎么回事，数据上除了纽约今天官方的730个，全美也阵亡了快两千 （28735 new cases and 1925 new deaths in the United States）。这么看来纽约今天事实死亡的肯定上千了。 vvdd 发表于 4/7/2020 8:19:54 PM
为啥死亡率不停上升啊？按理说早起还有西雅图老人院的好多在里面，应该偏高，现在应该下降才对？
另外纽约为啥有3.6%，这是发生医疗挤兑了么？
其实这病比较真实的数据就是按照相对真实的死亡数字反推。当然了，报道也说了，纽约估计每天100-200因为新冠死在家里的也没计算在内
April 6 (GMT)
30331 new cases and 1255 new deaths in the United States
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]
美国光知道上呼吸机， 估计怕医疗崩溃， 拔管也比较快， 死的人多， 呼吸机都富裕了
37万7是新的还是旧的？
但是轻症死在外面的， 分子也少了
纽约政客现在人造拐点。
there is always a delay with mortality. once diagnosed, it takes days and weeks to know the outcomes. People don't die on the same day that they are diagnosed. Because we know this disease usually starts out mild and in a percentage of the population, it deteriorates in the second week. A more precise way to estimate (definitely not perfect by any means) is to divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed case as of a 1-2 week ago.
武汉当时也这样，没能力测，很多都没测就没了。这些必然没有进入统计数据。
美国轻症死在外面也算做最后数字的，隔壁town的老人去世会给测是不是有coronavirus
也肯定有漏掉的。西雅图老人院不是发了通告他们20来天死了20多位。平时一月死3～7，只有13人做了核酸检测。
纽约活人都来不及测，还测死人？
其实这个数据看nationwide的不合适 还是应该一个一个region看 比如中国湖北vs其他省份就是不一样的
意大利如果就看爆发的Bergamo那就是人间地狱了。。。数字太吓人
西班牙的重灾区也是可怕的
我们这养老院的感染上就原地等死，都不送医院，我真的不敢相信这种事情会发生在世界上最富裕生活水平最高的发达国家。
刚开始，最后会到5%以上。
re。否则最后死亡率很难看
浙江人均GDP大概两万美元，这些你说的欧美国家多少都是吊打浙江人均GDP的。但是最后死亡率差别这么大，不是经济水平一个因素能解释的吧
因为浙江在没传播开之前就好好隔离了呗。欧美可是放任自由了两个月。。。
一样的，欧洲国家也是。。。
可是死亡率是除以确诊人数的。在医疗资源没有击穿前应该和隔离措施的correlation没有那么大吧。
因为试剂盒不够呀。
新闻里看到冷藏尸体的冷冻车不够用，还在继续调运过来。所以我看到有人贴不知道从哪里传出来的微信体中文说纽约医院形式一片大好，都觉得很怀疑，是不是为了马上复工造势。
有100 到200 死在家？ 不大相信。如果是新冠肯定会确诊，即使是用尸体。我朋友亲人去世，专门有人来做尸体检查，这个是必要程序。西雅图有老人死后确诊的。
OMG， 我记得就一家老人院吧
纽约家里死的不算上去，光医院里官方统计的死亡率也越来越高了。我怎么感觉纽约越来越严重了，好像开始全民免疫了，和州长说的完全两样啊！
江浙感染人数没有美国这么多
Re.
我们州只测需要住院的，老人院护理院的，医护人员，一直超3%死亡率.
完了现在还说试剂不够
外面，散步的，遛狗的，都是肩挨肩...
这不是武汉发生过的事吗？
不用顶锅盖。怀疑很正常。
浙江的病例绝大部分是从湖北和武汉输入的。输入型病例的特点是年龄普遍不大。
你很难想象80多岁的人过年前从武汉赶到浙江去，对吧。
这个病对60岁一下的人，死亡率就只有百分之0.1到0.2.
即使在意大利也是如此。
不要再拿国内的数据分析了，发生在国内的事那就是一个black box,里面什么情况根本不知道，只知道官方公布的数字完全不合科学。
大家看到的都是官方报的，住院率, icu率，测试率？ 统统都没有。
死亡，怎么才算在新冠死亡人口，不要忘了，中国算传染病死亡的方法和大部分西方国家不一样，按中国的算法，每年只有2 - 8个人死于流感。
你看看温州市长之前的记者访问视频就知道了，未雨绸缪啊，他从一开始武汉没封时就联系温州驻武汉商会一起处理疫情了，回来的人都跟踪隔离，然后火速改医院，直接把一个新医院改成预备的新冠医院了，然后市区几个医院腾空床位，在只有几百病例的时候他就已经准备了几千个病床了
国内很多学者也有异议