Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It.
We need to hit and release the brakes on physical distancing, again and again, until we safely get to immunity. By Gabriel Leung Dr. Leung is an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.
Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It.
We need to hit and release the brakes on physical distancing, again and again, until we safely get to immunity. By Gabriel Leung Dr. Leung is an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.
Absurdist 发表于 4/7/2020 10:29:13 AM
You should change your Chinese translation of "safely get to immunity", it could just mean 直到疫苗成功,接种疫苗之时。他并没有说get to herd immunity (which cannot be described as safely since it's not directly controllable).
Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It.
We need to hit and release the brakes on physical distancing, again and again, until we safely get to immunity.
By Gabriel Leung Dr. Leung is an infectious disease epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong.
如果按这篇文章,只会比意大利还要惨数倍。意大利,西班牙没有群体免疫,尚且那样,如果群体免疫呢。
这篇文章的作者是devil。
梁卓伟预计......在4月底至5月初高峰期,估算重庆每天的感染病例将增加15万宗;武汉、上海和北京将分别增加5万宗。
说人家devil,你有更好的对策?哪怕是遐想,跟这儿讨论讨论可能性呗。
他最近在研究穿山甲么不是
那个是前一向的研究了,最近真没听到他。
如果在潜心研究也挺好的 对病毒的研究有一个过程,期间会有反复和推翻,如果整个过程都跟公众沟通,反而会造成信誉掉分(有点讽刺)
You should change your Chinese translation of "safely get to immunity", it could just mean 直到疫苗成功,接种疫苗之时。他并没有说get to herd immunity (which cannot be described as safely since it's not directly controllable).
家里有个晚辈学文科的,她刚进大学的时候有次聊起来,我说,你们那个专业的很多论文,常常只是能自圆其说,很难验证,有些也许过了一段时间有新的证据出来,推翻原来的结论,。。不晓得是不毁了她三观。理工医,这样的情形还是少一点。
理工科好一些,不过如果事情还在发展中,提出观点很容易被推翻。 尤其是这次几乎一周一个新观察和新发展,很多防疫的发声都被所谓“打脸”,其实对科研人员也不公平,要理解科学的局限性。。
如果单说病毒,当年Sars一开始说是果子狸,也花了几年才追到蝙蝠身上,不过公众早就已经没兴趣了。
我感觉中国人很难接受是因为受“人定胜天”观念的影响,老觉得可以彻底隔断新冠的传播。
他的估算是重庆人躺平了,等着感染呢。这比神棍还让人觉得恶心。
大部分无症状和如感冒型轻症不会去测。实际致死率远远低于 3%
感染死亡率0.1-0.2%。
如果能够保护高危人群的话,有望将死亡率降到 0.03-0.05%。
也就是受泽东同志红宝书的金句 “人有多大胆,口罩疫苗多能干” 影响多一点 。。。 当然泽东同志可以树典型放 disc quota 的。