再补充一下，如果还考虑到检测不充分这一点的话，那就更觉得担心了。因为我觉得推测高峰基本上就两个方法？第一个就是通过现有数据去拟合，那如果检测都不充分，怎么可能依靠现有数据去做准确的拟合和预测呢。估计confidence interval要取很宽？第二个方法就更可怕了，不会就是按照开始stay at home的日期来生推的吧？
早前 美国专家参考了帝国理工那个模型吧。听briefing，女专家有提到。过了几天才提到 https://covid19.healthdata.org/https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. For an uncontrolled epidemic, we predict critical care bed capacity would be exceeded as early as the second week in April, with an eventual peak in ICU or critical care bed demand that is over 30 times greater than the maximum supply in both countries (Figure 2).（GB） Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems, suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required. Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required (Figure 3, Table 4). Measures are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration. Not accounting for the potential adverse effect on ICU capacity due to absenteeism, school and university closure is predicted to be more effective in achieving suppression than household quarantine. All four interventions combined are predicted to have the largest effect on transmission (Table 4). Such an intensive policy is predicted to result in a reduction in critical care requirements from a peak approximately 3 weeks after the interventions are introduced and a decline thereafter while the intervention policies remain in place. While there are many uncertainties in policy effectiveness, such a combined strategy is the most likely one to ensure that critical care bed requirements would remain within surge capacity.
再补充一下，如果还考虑到检测不充分这一点的话，那就更觉得担心了。因为我觉得推测高峰基本上就两个方法？第一个就是通过现有数据去拟合，那如果检测都不充分，怎么可能依靠现有数据去做准确的拟合和预测呢。估计confidence interval要取很宽？第二个方法就更可怕了，不会就是按照开始stay at home的日期来生推的吧？
zbbhateswbb 发表于 4/3/2020 9:47:52 PM
这个网站你看下variance就知道即便是按model来推的话，具体床位和ventilator的需求量还是有很大不确定，某种意义上说，做projection就是这样，we don't know what we don't know
再补充一下，如果还考虑到检测不充分这一点的话，那就更觉得担心了。因为我觉得推测高峰基本上就两个方法？第一个就是通过现有数据去拟合，那如果检测都不充分，怎么可能依靠现有数据去做准确的拟合和预测呢。估计confidence interval要取很宽？第二个方法就更可怕了，不会就是按照开始stay at home的日期来生推的吧？
检测也是有延迟的，出现症状到测试再到出结果要7-10天。如果今天开始戴口罩的话，两周后才能看到效果。
每个州的情况虽然不一样，但是上面也预测了全美国了。。。
超级计算机。。。我觉得你想多了
就是根据一个model来run的，现在很多人有很多model...都有误差。我自己感觉，基本上lockdown之后至少2周才能好转……
这个网站你看下variance就知道即便是按model来推的话，具体床位和ventilator的需求量还是有很大不确定，某种意义上说，做projection就是这样，we don't know what we don't know