The testing data is only relevant when people are still out and about and are continuing to transmit the virus at a fast speed. The number of cases is important to inform policymakers whether they need to have people shelter or not. Since everyone’s already sheltering in CA, that data is less relevant. However when the state is getting ready to relax the shelter in place restrictions and as people are returning to work, testing data will become important again. As previously mentioned how hospitals are holding up, hospital capacity and remaining number of beds are actually more relevant than the number of cases.
I am not saying it's not important, but all I was saying is the number of daily cases is not the most important indicator in understanding how bad of a situation we may be in. Whether we are as bad as New York, you need to look at % positive and whether hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed or not. If we had unlimited testing capacity, yes, we could just test everyone so that we understand disease prevalence. But it won't make a difference in terms of disease transmission while shelter in place is still in effect, since everyone is supposed to be staying home anyway. At most those cases will transmit it their family members and a few other people. Some transmission will still happen, but it won't drive a surge in cases whether we test these people or not.
The testing data is only relevant when people are still out and about and are continuing to transmit the virus at a fast speed. The number of cases is important to inform policymakers whether they need to have people shelter or not. Since everyone’s already sheltering in CA, that data is less relevant. However when the state is getting ready to relax the shelter in place restrictions and as people are returning to work, testing data will become important again. As previously mentioned how hospitals are holding up, hospital capacity and remaining number of beds are actually more relevant than the number of cases.
I am not saying it's not important, but all I was saying is the number of daily cases is not the most important indicator in understanding how bad of a situation we may be in. Whether we are as bad as New York, you need to look at % positive and whether hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed or not. If we had unlimited testing capacity, yes, we could just test everyone so that we understand disease prevalence. But it won't make a difference in terms of disease transmission while shelter in place is still in effect, since everyone is supposed to be staying home anyway. At most those cases will transmit it their family members and a few other people. Some transmission will still happen, but it won't drive a surge in cases whether we test these people or not.
bigsmile1 发表于 4/2/2020 12:42:53 AM
嗯同意你说的病床不够用才是问题。现在病床还够用说明还不像纽约那么糟糕。我担心的是未来会不会病床不够用。现在暂时还没看到数据说shelter in place的效果怎么样。万一现在加州shelter in place的力度还不够大，ICU病床还保持10%的增长率，那么一周就是2倍病床需求，两周就是4倍，到时候病床可能就不那么够了。 要是测试给力的话我们就可以提前知道shelter in place有没有起效果，需不需要很大的力度，比如确诊病人集中隔离以防止传染家人，比如每两天最多一个人出去买菜一次等，比如除了遛狗和买菜不让出门(包括锻炼)。
嗯同意你说的病床不够用才是问题。现在病床还够用说明还不像纽约那么糟糕。我担心的是未来会不会病床不够用。现在暂时还没看到数据说shelter in place的效果怎么样。万一现在加州shelter in place的力度还不够大，ICU病床还保持10%的增长率，那么一周就是2倍病床需求，两周就是4倍，到时候病床可能就不那么够了。 要是测试给力的话我们就可以提前知道shelter in place有没有起效果，需不需要很大的力度，比如确诊病人集中隔离以防止传染家人，比如每两天最多一个人出去买菜一次等，比如除了遛狗和买菜不让出门(包括锻炼)。
mathgxx 发表于 4/2/2020 2:04:22 AM
UCSF用数据说话（可以看看他们presentation). 他们觉得northern CA有surge的概率很低。case会慢慢慢慢往上爬到4月底因为比较总是有不听话的人和essential jobs的人还是回感染。他们会传染给家人。这样慢慢小量的传播几个cycles, 然后就die down. Here is the full presentation. Long but full of useful info.
不是这样的，那些疑似新馆的人也要像新冠病人一样耗费医院大量的PPE，早测试在确诊能替医院节省PPE。
I am not saying it's not important, but all I was saying is the number of daily cases is not the most important indicator in understanding how bad of a situation we may be in. Whether we are as bad as New York, you need to look at % positive and whether hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed or not. If we had unlimited testing capacity, yes, we could just test everyone so that we understand disease prevalence. But it won't make a difference in terms of disease transmission while shelter in place is still in effect, since everyone is supposed to be staying home anyway. At most those cases will transmit it their family members and a few other people. Some transmission will still happen, but it won't drive a surge in cases whether we test these people or not.
同意这个MM说的，住院数和空床数更能说明问题。
昨天是非常清楚明白的说的，1500是拿到的结果，说昨天是单日增长跳跃最大的，也是单日拿到结果最多的。今天就没有1500了，今天好像1000个左右的结果。
下面评论说Governor is telling nonessential business to shut down, why is CNN still on?
嗯同意你说的病床不够用才是问题。现在病床还够用说明还不像纽约那么糟糕。我担心的是未来会不会病床不够用。现在暂时还没看到数据说shelter in place的效果怎么样。万一现在加州shelter in place的力度还不够大，ICU病床还保持10%的增长率，那么一周就是2倍病床需求，两周就是4倍，到时候病床可能就不那么够了。
要是测试给力的话我们就可以提前知道shelter in place有没有起效果，需不需要很大的力度，比如确诊病人集中隔离以防止传染家人，比如每两天最多一个人出去买菜一次等，比如除了遛狗和买菜不让出门(包括锻炼)。
我愚钝，看不懂，请指教按比例？？握包是什么？
纽约测了有什么用，不 shelter, 测了之后只是发现已经遍地开花了，而且还拖累了周围的州。
UCSF用数据说话（可以看看他们presentation). 他们觉得northern CA有surge的概率很低。case会慢慢慢慢往上爬到4月底因为比较总是有不听话的人和essential jobs的人还是回感染。他们会传染给家人。这样慢慢小量的传播几个cycles, 然后就die down.
Here is the full presentation. Long but full of useful info.