The Bergamo mayors have told Eco several times: "There are many more deaths in our municipalities than in official cases". To shed light on the real impact of the coronavirus in Bergamasca, the most affected province in Italy, we decided to thoroughly analyze the data of each individual municipality. The Eco di Bergamo and InTwig , a research and data analysis agency, have decided to launch an in-depth investigation in the 243 municipalities of Bergamo. We will ask each administration for information on residents' deaths in the first three months of 2020 to compare mortality compared to previous years. In the absence of widespread monitoring of the infected, the death rate is in fact (and unfortunately) the only real yardstick on which an analysis can be made. To understand the method by which deaths will be analyzed, it is good to observe the case of the Municipality of Bergamo, which has already provided partial data for the first three weeks of March. From an average of 45 deaths a week in the last ten years there has been a surge to 313 per week, almost seven times as much in the seven days from 15 to 21 March. From March 1 to 21, however, the ratio is four times the average for the past ten years. Until the last week of February, when the contagion was still limited, the data remained in line with the average: 64 deaths per week against 48.9 per week over the past ten years. With the beginning of March, however, here is the surge: 95 deaths in the first week against 49.1 on average, then a leap upwards with 296 deaths in the second week of March against 49.4 of the average of the last ten years and finally, the highest figure so far, in the third week, with 313 deaths against an average of 45. Only with the numbers of this week will it be possible to understand if a decline is taking place in the city of Bergamo, as the trend of the infections suggests, or no. A comparison that applies to all the people who lost their lives in the Municipality of Bergamo, therefore also counting the data of the province residents who died at the hospital, both the statistics that only cover city residents. In this case, the peak was always recorded in the third week of March with 154 deaths against 26 on average in the last 10 years.
By communities, Madrid continues to lead both in the number of new deceased (345, to 2,757) and in the rate per 100,000 inhabitants, which has already reached 41.4 deaths. In relation to its population, it is followed by Castilla-La Mancha (22 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) and La Rioja (20). In absolute terms it is Catalonia, with 1,070 deaths (190 more), the closest to Madrid. Catalonia also maintains a strong upward trend in terms of patients admitted to ICUs, and with 1,324 it is already close to 1,404 in Madrid.
By communities, Madrid continues to lead both in the number of new deceased (345, to 2,757) and in the rate per 100,000 inhabitants, which has already reached 41.4 deaths. In relation to its population, it is followed by Castilla-La Mancha (22 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) and La Rioja (20). In absolute terms it is Catalonia, with 1,070 deaths (190 more), the closest to Madrid. Catalonia also maintains a strong upward trend in terms of patients admitted to ICUs, and with 1,324 it is already close to 1,404 in Madrid.
消息来源
各国统计发布时间不同 但现在都是24小时的死亡人数了
接下来西班牙/意大利/法国的数字会持续难看 我不是说他们会造假数字，而是他们会把所有感染的都算进去没有隐瞒动力。
他们正在欧盟和德国/荷兰等集团打架要求发放欧盟债券，而不是接受希腊式的有苛刻条件的救济款。
看我下面那层楼对马德里的分析。马德里真的药丸。现在是每2415死亡一个人。这个太可怕了。
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法国最年轻的死亡患者 16岁少女茱莉 情况从light cough急剧恶化
更让人担心的是可怜的西班牙，真的要变Spanish Flu 2.0
这里贴一个意大利伦巴底大区最惨的Bergamo贝加莫省的情况。意大利大区相当于中国的省，province相当于中国的县。
贝加莫省现在正在统计所有在家/医院死亡人数，来对比过去同期，看看到底死了多少人。仅仅是现有的不完全数据，每周死亡人数至少是平时的4倍！
贝加莫省当地非常悲愤。原因是意大利刚刚发生patient 1的爆发的时候，大家的目光集中在伦巴底大区南部的Lodi省和其他几个hotspot。当时意大利政府的确很果断的对几个小地方采取了严格的lockdown封城并且限制居民出行。现在这些地方的peak已经过去，情况比Bergamo好多了。
然而当时Bergamo也出现了社区传播的迹象，开始人数surge。然而却迟迟没有采取Lodi那样的措施。当地人blame政府认为Bergamo的经济太重要而畏手畏脚。Bergamo大家可以查一下，是工业hub, 当地的机场是去意大利北部滑雪区的hub. 更可怕的是今年欧冠Bergamo当地的亚特兰大队vs西班牙瓦伦西亚的比赛没有及时叫停。球迷大量聚集，是导致现在的惨剧的重要原因之一。所以当地人现在要把这笔帐算出来。
https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/a-bergamo-decessi-4-volte-oltre-la-medialeco-lancia-unindagine-nei-comuni_1346651_11/?attach_a_&src=title&site_source=RelatedBottom-1346651
In Bergamo 4 times above average deaths
Eco launches an investigation in the Municipalities
The official death data for «Covid-19» photograph only a small part of the real cases in the province of Bergamo. The Echo told it several times by interviewing the mayors. Now a data collection starts for a more in-depth analysis.
The Bergamo mayors have told Eco several times: "There are many more deaths in our municipalities than in official cases". To shed light on the real impact of the coronavirus in Bergamasca, the most affected province in Italy, we decided to thoroughly analyze the data of each individual municipality. The Eco di Bergamo and InTwig , a research and data analysis agency, have decided to launch an in-depth investigation in the 243 municipalities of Bergamo. We will ask each administration for information on residents' deaths in the first three months of 2020 to compare mortality compared to previous years. In the absence of widespread monitoring of the infected, the death rate is in fact (and unfortunately) the only real yardstick on which an analysis can be made. To understand the method by which deaths will be analyzed, it is good to observe the case of the Municipality of Bergamo, which has already provided partial data for the first three weeks of March. From an average of 45 deaths a week in the last ten years there has been a surge to 313 per week, almost seven times as much in the seven days from 15 to 21 March. From March 1 to 21, however, the ratio is four times the average for the past ten years. Until the last week of February, when the contagion was still limited, the data remained in line with the average: 64 deaths per week against 48.9 per week over the past ten years. With the beginning of March, however, here is the surge: 95 deaths in the first week against 49.1 on average, then a leap upwards with 296 deaths in the second week of March against 49.4 of the average of the last ten years and finally, the highest figure so far, in the third week, with 313 deaths against an average of 45. Only with the numbers of this week will it be possible to understand if a decline is taking place in the city of Bergamo, as the trend of the infections suggests, or no. A comparison that applies to all the people who lost their lives in the Municipality of Bergamo, therefore also counting the data of the province residents who died at the hospital, both the statistics that only cover city residents. In this case, the peak was always recorded in the third week of March with 154 deaths against 26 on average in the last 10 years.
马德里重灾区的居民死亡率是 41.4/十万 也就是4.14/万人
考虑到新冠的病程不短，这个数字只能反应2-3周前的情况。最后的数字非常可怕。
我个人认为目前看达到1/千人是不可挽回的了。如果不想办法达到1/百人都不是危言耸听。居民死亡率和社会是否崩溃是直接挂钩的。大家可以继续关注马德里的居民死亡率来看看武汉究竟经历了什么。
P.S. 马德里虽然不是啥富有发达的地方，但是人均医疗资源肯定比各省支援前的武汉要好。
由于伊朗情况的报道太少。西班牙是目前最接近湖北省的井喷式情况的。马德里也是最接近武汉的。加泰罗尼亚区域的井喷模式在有力竞争。西班牙的防护意识还不如意大利，前期应对混乱，是最接近武汉（但是我个人认为远远好于武汉）的情况的。
意大利爆发的地方是北部富得流油医疗资源非常优秀的地方。虽然很快资源被消耗，Bergamo推迟的封城造成了不可挽回的后果。我说实话很多国家地区是做不到的伦巴底的水平的。西班牙肯定会比意大利更惨。
西班牙一方面政府有失误，另一方面又是欧洲的佛罗里达游客/欧冠球赛带来的2-3月人口流动非常大。再加上本身不够富，医疗资源比不过意大利北部/德国奥地利这种地方。更穷的国家比如东欧穷兄弟比如捷克早早就认清现实，戴口罩的戴口罩，严管的严管。只是西班牙夹在中间，这次是真的药丸了。
By communities, Madrid continues to lead both in the number of new deceased (345, to 2,757) and in the rate per 100,000 inhabitants, which has already reached 41.4 deaths. In relation to its population, it is followed by Castilla-La Mancha (22 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) and La Rioja (20). In absolute terms it is Catalonia, with 1,070 deaths (190 more), the closest to Madrid. Catalonia also maintains a strong upward trend in terms of patients admitted to ICUs, and with 1,324 it is already close to 1,404 in Madrid.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-28/nuevo-record-de-fallecidos-de-coronavirus-en-un-dia-en-espana-832-en-las-ultimas-24-horas.html
中国真实数字如果放出来，你就知道这些数字再意料之中了。
我个人认为西班牙就是对佛朗哥时代矫枉过正了。80年代之后出生的人的太傻白甜。
难怪感觉西班牙恶化得比意大利快好多……
我对西班牙很悲观
2W是乐观 悲观是7W
不过现在这么说说真的都是毛估估的
你直接这么比较没有意义
伦敦/纽约都是特大城市 如果击穿就不是可以计算的
现在最可以拿来参照的例子就是马德里
米兰虽然在疫区但是不是重灾区 另外没啥贫民窟 没有可比性
纽约好处就是医疗资源的确很好 问题就是贫民区实在是多 曼哈顿没有in unit洗衣机的太多
伦敦是大部分都有in unit 洗衣机的 但是大多没有烘干机 虽然上百年老房子很多 但是每栋楼里面household数目少
纽约的大楼里面既没有in unit laundry又高度密集household 真的想想就scary
感觉意大利也看不到头…有个熟悉意大利的朋友说现在是南意开始爆了？什么时候才是个头啊……
santa clara县目前死亡20，县官员说到五月底如果2000以内就算很好。
有没有链接？前面贴的没找到相关信息。
美国一般报的晚，昨天都四百出头了，今天只会更多
我现在在看BBC
It is only the beginning
如果不采取更激进隔离方式 并且禁止医务人员和普通人接触 比如买菜回家之类的 情况会更坏
至于现在采取的轻症仅支持的方式 现在这些轻症肯定会百分之十以上变ICU 其中一半死亡 这些已经是不可挽回了 数字只会继续上升
我认为武汉还是食品供应链出了问题
不认为水污染能导致爆发
这个病毒在水里保持不了太久活性