US: Today's initial jobless claims print likely to garner a fair amount of focus as one of the more high frequency official US data prints. The range of estimates is ... Wide to say the least:
- Pictet have the highest estimate at 4400K, with the lowest at just 360K. Median sits at 1640K.
- An inline print at 1640K would comfortably be the highest on record going back to the late 1960s. Previous high print was 671K in 1982.
数字出来了，3.283 million bw376 发表于 3/26/2020 8:35:30 AM [url=https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.aspx?topicid=2524747&postid=83316951#83316951][img][/img][/url]
这数字太恐怖了
US weekly jobless claims soar to a record-breaking 3.28 million, vs 1.5 million expected PUBLISHED THU, MAR 26 20208:31 AM EDT
Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers, with the Labor Department reporting Friday a surge to 3.28 million. The number shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.
Consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Dow Jones showed an expectation for 1.5 million new claims, though individual forecasts on Wall Street had been anticipating a much higher number. The surge comes amid a crippling slowdown brought on by the coronavirus crisis. Businesses across the country have shut down amid a policy of social distancing aimed at keeping the virus’s growth in check. Individual states have reported websites crashing amid a rush to file. Jobless claims are considered the quickest window into current economic conditions. Most data reports in recent weeks reflect periods before the worst of the coronavirus hit and have been showing the U.S. in relatively good shape heading into the crisis. “This is a unique situation. People need to understand, this is not a typical downturn,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday morning on NBC’s “Today” show. “At a certain point, we will get the spread of the virus under control. At that time, confidence will return, businesses will open again, people will come back to work,” he added. “So you may well see a significant rise in unemployment, a significant decline in economic activity. But there can also be a good rebound on the other side of that.” New claims for unemployment compensation were expected to hit a record-breaking 1.5 million for the week ended March 21, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones. [url=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html]Get the market reaction here.[/url] This is breaking news. Check back here for updates.
白芍 发表于 3/26/2020 8:46:48 AM [url=http://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.aspx?topicid=2524747&postid=83317020#83317020][/url]
A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment since they were not covered prior to the passing of the senate bill last night. This goes to show just how sharp of an impact the coronavirus pandemic has had relative to past recessions. Even the '08 Financial Crisis took MONTHS to unravel.
上周是 281K， 现在这情况，今天不知要翻多少倍。
US: Today's initial jobless claims print likely to garner a fair amount of focus
as one of the more high frequency official US data prints. The range of
estimates is ... Wide to say the least:
- Pictet have the highest estimate at 4400K, with the lowest at just 360K.
Median sits at 1640K.
- An inline print at 1640K would comfortably be the highest on record going back
to the late 1960s. Previous high print was 671K in 1982.
这数字太恐怖了
US weekly jobless claims soar to a record-breaking 3.28 million, vs 1.5 million expected
PUBLISHED THU, MAR 26 20208:31 AM EDT
Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers, with the Labor Department reporting Friday a surge to 3.28 million. The number shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.
Consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Dow Jones showed an expectation for 1.5 million new claims, though individual forecasts on Wall Street had been anticipating a much higher number. The surge comes amid a crippling slowdown brought on by the coronavirus crisis.
Businesses across the country have shut down amid a policy of social distancing aimed at keeping the virus’s growth in check. Individual states have reported websites crashing amid a rush to file.
Jobless claims are considered the quickest window into current economic conditions. Most data reports in recent weeks reflect periods before the worst of the coronavirus hit and have been showing the U.S. in relatively good shape heading into the crisis. “This is a unique situation. People need to understand, this is not a typical downturn,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday morning on NBC’s “Today” show. “At a certain point, we will get the spread of the virus under control. At that time, confidence will return, businesses will open again, people will come back to work,” he added. “So you may well see a significant rise in unemployment, a significant decline in economic activity. But there can also be a good rebound on the other side of that.” New claims for unemployment compensation were expected to hit a record-breaking 1.5 million for the week ended March 21, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
[url=https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html]Get the market reaction here.[/url] This is breaking news. Check back here for updates.
那倒不会，股市已经基本稳住了。
市场会预期 FED 会拿出更多大招武器
这么多人的消费都减少了，然后制造也会收到压力，连锁反应
是1%吧
3百万是1/10的人口？
assuming they have a place to go back to
你是白痴吗？ 就算你现在复工，有人去消费吗？ 就是中国现在复工了，消费上去了吗？
全国呆家里的的目的是什么？ 就是为了及早控制病毒，早日复工。 可惜你这样的猪脑子，连这种浅显的道理都看不懂。
3.28M 不是1/100么？
股市 SPX 周一的那个低点 2192 就是今年的低点了，不会再跌破这个点。
原因无它：够低，价值跌出来了。
股市是炒预期不是炒现在，形势最糟糕的时候股市低点已过。
按照你这个数学水平，能有公司雇你已经是奇迹了，别想太多。
控制到多少？
现在连Fauci也承认，当出现峰值、然后flatten的时候，就算控制住了，可以考虑复工了。
还是像大妈一样，觉得要全国人民在家呆几个月甚至几年，新增病例降到0，疫苗出来了，才能复工？
纽约这个shithole可以停两月，没意见
所以前阵美元的强势只是昙花一现，股市一稳住美元就开跌
看了上周末60分钟节目访问么
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-and-economy-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-60-minutes-2020-03-22/
那你就赶紧回去端盘子去，看看有没有人去吃饭。
为啥端盘子？几百万失业人口直接来你家loot，吃你家的饭了。
跌点好，健康，前一段涨的太吓人了。
A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment since they were not covered prior to the passing of the senate bill last night. This goes to show just how sharp of an impact the coronavirus pandemic has had relative to past recessions. Even the '08 Financial Crisis took MONTHS to unravel.
怒的好，这吵架的架势真的不忍直视
后面虽然震荡还难免，底基本上已经可以肯定过去了，
还在等股市再狂落到周一那个低点的同志恐怕是等不到了