美国全国新冠重症才64例,这是怎么回事?

C
Czboy
楼主 (北美华人网)
加上死亡的256例, 重症比例才1.7%. 总确诊已有18984例。
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

C
Czboy
回复 1楼Czboy的帖子 能不能谁来解释一下,美国因为新冠需要上呼吸机的到底有多少人。
龙图
因为test kit 供应没跟上 另外从发病到病重到死亡还是有一个过程吧。。 唉。。。。说了都是泪,这个噩梦赶紧过去吧
f
flyinthewind2012
我猜测有比较管用的药。美国已经蔓延1-2周了,如果严重的现在应该已经爆发了。如果能一直控制住死亡率和重症率,情况就不会很差。
弹指芳华
当然是因为有某药了
e
ebc
好像这个不准。前段时间这个网站说美国10例的时候,纽约州就有18例。
j
justwatching
再等等看看,重症的标准是什么?插管上呼吸机还是上ecmo?
E
EdwardVIII
加上死亡的256例, 重症比例才1.7%. 总确诊已有18984例。
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/



Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 8:00:10 PM

這個網站怎麽定義重症的?住院的不應該只有這麽少。
l
layman1989
回复 1楼Czboy的帖子 差不多吧。重症死亡率大约50%,现在每天死亡人数就是30左右。
b
blanch23
回复 1楼Czboy的帖子

差不多吧。重症死亡率大约50%,现在每天死亡人数就是30左右。
layman1989 发表于 3/20/2020 8:32:31 PM


re, 重症不高,但是死亡率不低。
f
flyinthewind2012
好像这个不准。前段时间这个网站说美国10例的时候,纽约州就有18例。
ebc 发表于 3/20/2020 8:25:50 PM

这些例子里面应该有一些就死了。累积到死亡人数里面去了。我猜测,估计有比较管用的药。对多数人有效果,但是对年龄很大有并发症的人不管用。
否则重症率和死亡率肯定不止这么点。
f
flyinthewind2012


re, 重症不高,但是死亡率不低。

blanch23 发表于 3/20/2020 8:34:35 PM

死亡率也不高,只有1%左右。
C
Cantaloupe
感觉一是没到真正的高峰期,二是政府控制管理还不错,把高峰期分散和延长了,这样不会瘫痪医疗系统。这样,即使真正的高峰期到来,数字也不会急骤上升。虽然主流媒体天天哭爹喊娘要死的节奏,俺看到的信息和数据没那么糟糕。
m
minqidev
我猜测有比较管用的药。美国已经蔓延1-2周了,如果严重的现在应该已经爆发了。如果能一直控制住死亡率和重症率,情况就不会很差。
flyinthewind2012 发表于 3/20/2020 8:23:45 PM


没有药,全国最大药厂之一的礼来,高级别人人都没得救,不要指望是用药。
还挂了两个,他们都是参加全美药厂leadership的人。应该是浓度还不高

中西部几个大药厂的管理层都吓尿了。
q
qbly
这数据根本不准啊。之前cdc不就说当时两千多例的时候,500需要住院,其中一百多icu吗?
C
Czboy
当然是因为有某药了
弹指芳华 发表于 3/20/2020 8:24:30 PM


如果这个数据对的话,肯定是药物作用,如果Remdisivir在开始用的话, 可能极大降低了重症率。

还有纽约病例最多,好像没有听到纽约ICU超负荷(不是急诊室)的消息?意大利当初和纽约一样多的病例时候,ICU已经崩溃了。
f
float0218
还没到时候?
e
ebc
请问是不是只有去ICU的才算重症?
G
GaAs


如果这个数据对的话,肯定是药物作用,如果Remdisivir在开始用的话, 可能极大降低了重症率。

还有纽约病例最多,好像没有听到纽约ICU超负荷(不是急诊室)的消息?意大利当初和纽约一样多的病例时候,ICU已经崩溃了。

Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 9:43:25 PM

已经三个药了,高大上就走人民的希望,便宜大碗就是痢疾药,今天又出来一个药我还没来的及看

还有一个药马上要trial,没记住名字

如果不是药有希望的话,估计美国就和英国一样,爱谁谁。现在就是把curve摊平,等药大批量出来,大家又可以开始浪了
C
Czboy
请问是不是只有去ICU的才算重症?
ebc 发表于 3/20/2020 9:48:48 PM


当然,世界各国标准都一样,上呼吸机的算重症。住院的并不都是重症病人。一般有肺炎症状都会要求住院。
G
GaAs

已经三个药了,高大上就走人民的希望,便宜大碗就是痢疾药,今天又出来一个药我还没来的及看

还有一个药马上要trial,没记住名字

如果不是药有希望的话,估计美国就和英国一样,爱谁谁。现在就是把curve摊平,等药大批量出来,大家又可以开始浪了

GaAs 发表于 3/20/2020 9:50:38 PM

我看的医生的twitter,医生各种讨论各种药的排列组合。。。都是木听说过的药。。。
l
littleid
已经三个药了,高大上就走人民的希望,便宜大碗就是痢疾药,今天又出来一个药我还没来的及看

还有一个药马上要trial,没记住名字

如果不是药有希望的话,估计美国就和英国一样,爱谁谁。现在就是把curve摊平,等药大批量出来,大家又可以开始浪了

GaAs 发表于 3/20/2020 9:50:38 PM


是呀,现在就是和时间赛跑。如果能够平缓 the curve, 药的效果再进一步得到证明,很多人估计不到重症就好了,也不会挤兑医院。
C
Czboy

已经三个药了,高大上就走人民的希望,便宜大碗就是痢疾药,今天又出来一个药我还没来的及看

还有一个药马上要trial,没记住名字

如果不是药有希望的话,估计美国就和英国一样,爱谁谁。现在就是把curve摊平,等药大批量出来,大家又可以开始浪了

GaAs 发表于 3/20/2020 9:50:38 PM

Remdisivir 马上要揭盲了。
你是彼岸
能怎么回事儿,相信政府相信党呗(共和党)。
驫龘麤靐
美国人口大约是中国的1/4,确诊2万,是中国确诊8万的1/4,也就是说已经持平了,就算中国谎报数字,以美国这个增速,最多3,4天后大概就能再翻一番,也就超过中国最顶峰时的情况。回头看看,这两个月过的太魔幻了,而且更魔幻的还没到呢。
c
cckk
回复 1楼Czboy的帖子 可怕
Y
YaYaTea
时间还没到
C
Czboy
美国人口大约是中国的1/4,确诊2万,是中国确诊8万的1/4,也就是说已经持平了,就算中国谎报数字,以美国这个增速,最多3,4天后大概就能再翻一番,也就超过中国最顶峰时的情况。回头看看,这两个月过的太魔幻了,而且更魔幻的还没到呢。
驫龘麤靐 发表于 3/20/2020 11:05:59 PM

关键是重症和死亡,今晚实时数据纽约也在下降,我觉得美国可能已在临床轻症使用remdisivir
l
lunablue
我一直觉得重症数量可能不太准,因为不是每个州都统计这个数字
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flyinthewind2012
美国人口大约是中国的1/4,确诊2万,是中国确诊8万的1/4,也就是说已经持平了,就算中国谎报数字,以美国这个增速,最多3,4天后大概就能再翻一番,也就超过中国最顶峰时的情况。回头看看,这两个月过的太魔幻了,而且更魔幻的还没到呢。
驫龘麤靐 发表于 3/20/2020 11:05:59 PM

中国的数字你相信吗?
f
flyinthewind2012

关键是重症和死亡,今晚实时数据纽约也在下降,我觉得美国可能已在临床轻症使用remdisivir
Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 11:21:40 PM

其实我觉得中国后来情况好转也有药的缘故,但是他们肯定不会说是美国的药。
另外德国重症率和死亡率也很低。
我的推断,这病毒很难控制传播,但是在有有效药物的情况下,估计最后死亡率不会很高。
l
lianqiao
我猜测有比较管用的药。美国已经蔓延1-2周了,如果严重的现在应该已经爆发了。如果能一直控制住死亡率和重症率,情况就不会很差。
flyinthewind2012 发表于 3/20/2020 8:23:45 PM

杀生丸说他们医院的治疗方案今天出来了,一线硫酸羟氯喹,二线克力芝,重症患者经检测细胞因子后在IL-6升高的情况下考虑使用托珠单抗,瑞德西韦作为同情用药选择
杀生丸在John Hopkins,今天才出治疗方案,之前也还是支持治疗为主吧
C
Czboy

杀生丸说他们医院的治疗方案今天出来了,一线硫酸羟氯喹,二线克力芝,重症患者经检测细胞因子后在IL-6升高的情况下考虑使用托珠单抗,瑞德西韦作为同情用药选择
杀生丸在John Hopkins,今天才出治疗方案,之前也还是支持治疗为主吧

lianqiao 发表于 3/20/2020 11:29:05 PM

不太相信,克力芝在中国的临床已经失败
a
angelina81
出院的太少了,按轮子的算法,死亡率64%
l
lovepeiny
看到这个消息心里轻松一下
s
shoppingisfun


当然,世界各国标准都一样,上呼吸机的算重症。住院的并不都是重症病人。一般有肺炎症状都会要求住院。

Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 9:51:29 PM


那撤呼吸机的标准呢?
中国很多撤不了的,就一直重症。
美国是不是呼吸机几天好不了,就撤了算死亡人数?
W
WalnutTree
没啥特效药都靠自己扛吧。
s
sindylee
我们这里有几例是死了才才测出来,估计不包含在重症的数据里面
宫迷
瑞德西韦不就是挽救重症病人的良药 吗?
m
minqidev


上面有人说了,克力芝据说无效。一线用药是什么意思?是给重症,快死的人用, 还是直接所有人用?
mindstorm 发表于 3/21/2020 6:29:41 AM


以前很多人力捧杀生丸,但是后来我老家四线城市,一个没挂。说明最重要是医疗资源不要被击穿就行。

做做键盘侠都容易,自己上一线就不同了
y
yiyiyiyi
这个是什么网站 数据靠谱吗
来去自由
这数据准确性有待商榷,按CDC截止到3/16日的数据,住院率12%,肯定不止64。 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years. Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table). Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table). Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2).
加上死亡的256例, 重症比例才1.7%. 总确诊已有18984例。 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 8:00:00 PM
P
Pigsqwerty

這個網站怎麽定義重症的?住院的不應該只有這麽少。

EdwardVIII 发表于 3/20/2020 8:29:09 PM

才64重症?我们医院就14个上呼吸机了
s
susancoffee


re, 重症不高,但是死亡率不低。

blanch23 发表于 3/20/2020 8:34:35 PM

死亡率也不高,只有1%左右。
flyinthewind2012 发表于 3/20/2020 8:36:03 PM
现在医疗资源还没有开始挤兑,系统也没有崩溃,这个数字正常吧。现在如果确诊人数是对的,死亡率应该是向韩国看起的。
k
kreaty
柯立芝不是浙江省的轻症用药吗?效果明显啊
G
GaAs
这数据准确性有待商榷,按CDC截止到3/16日的数据,住院率12%,肯定不止64。

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.
Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).
Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2).


来去自由 发表于 3/21/2020 7:04:05 AM

重症是指icu,如果美国现在给住院的开始用药,那确实很可能不少住院的不会转成icu
我记得开始看nih的说从中国数据看感染的20%的要icu,如果是这个百分比,那就很可怕了
m
miss6161
政府隐瞒数据了!
a
anthropolian
我有朋友的朋友确诊了,医院给的是治疟疾的药hydroxychloroquine(奎宁)在家隔离,我并不认识这人,但是据说朋友认识,说吃了这药第二天明显好转。他拍了药的照片,处方药,看样子不像假的。
s
sarara_2010
回复 25楼驫龘麤靐的帖子 用中国官方的数字做比较,你确定不是高级黑?
C
Czboy
这数据准确性有待商榷,按CDC截止到3/16日的数据,住院率12%,肯定不止64。

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the United States, with reports increasing to 500 or more cases per day beginning March 14 (Figure 1). Among 2,449 patients with known age, 6% were aged ≥85, 25% were aged 65–84 years, 18% each were aged 55–64 years and 45–54 years, and 29% were aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). Only 5% of cases occurred in persons aged 0–19 years.
Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).
Among 44 cases with known outcome, 15 (34%) deaths were reported among adults aged ≥85 years, 20 (46%) among adults aged 65–84 years, and nine (20%) among adults aged 20–64 years. Case-fatality percentages increased with increasing age, from no deaths reported among persons aged ≤19 years to highest percentages (10%–27%) among adults aged ≥85 years (Table) (Figure 2).


来去自由 发表于 3/21/2020 7:04:05 AM

住院和重症是两个概念。
C
Czboy

才64重症?我们医院就14个上呼吸机了

Pigsqwerty 发表于 3/21/2020 7:10:33 AM


你们医院在什么地区,总共多少床位?
t
tricycle


你们医院在什么地区,总共多少床位?
Czboy 发表于 3/21/2020 11:09:51 AM


等等,他还得上网搜答案
A
Adrianne


如果这个数据对的话,肯定是药物作用,如果Remdisivir在开始用的话, 可能极大降低了重症率。

还有纽约病例最多,好像没有听到纽约ICU超负荷(不是急诊室)的消息?意大利当初和纽约一样多的病例时候,ICU已经崩溃了。

Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 9:43:25 PM


就象New Jersey那个华人男医生,一针下去,很快就回家隔离了,那么ICU是不会超负荷的。
A
Adrianne

中国的数字你相信吗?

flyinthewind2012 发表于 3/20/2020 11:23:47 PM


至少乘三
N
NCMR

其实我觉得中国后来情况好转也有药的缘故,但是他们肯定不会说是美国的药。
另外德国重症率和死亡率也很低。
我的推断,这病毒很难控制传播,但是在有有效药物的情况下,估计最后死亡率不会很高。

flyinthewind2012 发表于 3/20/2020 11:26:03 PM


爱国者说用的是中药
c
chocomousse

关键是重症和死亡,今晚实时数据纽约也在下降,我觉得美国可能已在临床轻症使用remdisivir
Czboy 发表于 3/20/2020 11:21:40 PM

轻症根本不给住院吧
l
layman1989


至少乘三

Adrianne 发表于 3/21/2020 11:32:03 AM


三后边加个十