今天看了看这篇报道。我想今后相当长一段时间我们将处于时紧时松的状态。所谓抑制和舒缓政策将交替实行，直到疫苗被开发出来。有兴趣的可以点看链接看看 (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)。我的小总结如下： The report authored by Ferguson et al. is impacting policy making in the UK and other countries. The report simulates approaches to control the virus. Basically, there are two methods. The first is to suppress the transmission to the level that the actual case number reduces over time. The second is to mitigate through relatively relaxed policy, aiming to protect only the older people. The first approach has enormous social/economical costs, and the case number will rebound quickly once the policy is relaxed, in part because there is no herd immunity.
The second approach will cause ICUs to be overwhelmed and will result in enormous fatality.
Notice the figure 2 below shows that mitigation approach will not be able to flatten the curve for ICU needs below the existing ICU capacity.
Figure 3 shows that complete repression will lead to a huge rebound once the policy is removed.
In the end (figure 4), the paper suggests an adaptive policy. Hospitals will be monitored for ICU usages. Once cases increase over a threshold, the repression policy will be triggered. Once the case reduces below a certain level, mitigation will be the main approach. The paper's simulations show that this adaptive policy will have to be enforced until vaccine is developed.
I think in the US, the very restrictive suppression policy will be used in the near future. This will last until the situation is under control, and then the policy will change into the adaptive phase. Notice that the simulation (figure 4) below with Great Britain’s population shows that with the adaptive policy, the majority of the time in the next 18 months will still be the suppression phase.
Taken together, unless the virus miraculously disappear, we will live through a relatively long period of “new normal” until a vaccine is deployed.
Mark 一下，一会看😀，，，， 今天看了看这篇报道。我想今后相当长一段时间我们将处于时紧时松的状态。所谓抑制和舒缓政策将交替实行，直到疫苗被开发出来。有兴趣的可以点看链接看看 ( https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf ) 。我的小总结如下： The reportauthored by Ferguson et al. is impacting policy making in the UK and other countries. The report simulates approaches to control the virus. Basically, there are two methods. The first is to suppress the transmission to the level that the actual case number reduces over time. The second is to mitigate through relatively relaxed policy, aiming to protect only the older people. The first approach has enormous social/economical costs, and the case number will rebound quickly once the policy is relaxed, in part because there is no herd immunity. The second approach will cause ICUs to be overwhelmed and will result in enormous fatality. Notice the figure 2 below shows that mitigation approach will not be able to flatten the curve for ICU needs below the existing ICU capacity. Figure 3 shows that complete repression will lead to a huge rebound once the policy is removed. In the end (figure 4), the paper suggests an adaptive policy. Hospitals will be monitored for ICU usages. Once cases increase over a threshold, the repression policy will be triggered. Once the case reduces below a certain level, mitigation will be the main approach. The paper's simulations show that this adaptive policy will have to be enforced until vaccine is developed. I think in the US, the very restrictive suppression policy will be used in the near future. This will last until the situation is under control, and then the policy will change into the adaptive phase. Notice that the simulation (figure 4) below with Great Britain’s population shows that with the adaptive policy, the majority of the time in the next 18 months will still be the suppression phase. Taken together, unless the virus miraculously disappear, we will live through a relatively long period of “new normal” until a vaccine is deployed. ————————————— —————————————————
看到了，18个月太悲观了。trevor bedford提了三个建议，所谓新冠阿波罗计划 1. 想韩国一样大量提高测试 2. 手机定位带病毒人的地理位置，更好的追踪疑似 3.大量测带抗体的人群，这些人都有免疫了，生活可以回到正常 https://mynorthwest.com/1775333/fred-hutch-scientist-coronavirus-apollo-program/ With that in mind, the paper estimates that we wouldn’t be able to relax social distancing measures for up to 18 months. Fred Hutchinson’s Trevor Bedford doesn’t quite agree with that timeline, and instead sees that as a risk that can be mitigated with the proper precautions. “I’m not quite that pessimistic,” he notes. “Although I agree that basic mitigation efforts won’t stop the epidemic, I have hope that we can solve this thing by doing traditional shoe leather epidemiology of case finding and isolation, but at scale, using modern technology.”
The report authored by Ferguson et al. is impacting policy making in the UK and other countries. The report simulates approaches to control the virus. Basically, there are two methods. The first is to suppress the transmission to the level that the actual case number reduces over time. The second is to mitigate through relatively relaxed policy, aiming to protect only the older people.
The first approach has enormous social/economical costs, and the case number will rebound quickly once the policy is relaxed, in part because there is no herd immunity.
The second approach will cause ICUs to be overwhelmed and will result in enormous fatality.
Notice the figure 2 below shows that mitigation approach will not be able to flatten the curve for ICU needs below the existing ICU capacity.
Figure 3 shows that complete repression will lead to a huge rebound once the policy is removed.
In the end (figure 4), the paper suggests an adaptive policy. Hospitals will be monitored for ICU usages. Once cases increase over a threshold, the repression policy will be triggered. Once the case reduces below a certain level, mitigation will be the main approach. The paper's simulations show that this adaptive policy will have to be enforced until vaccine is developed.
I think in the US, the very restrictive suppression policy will be used in the near future. This will last until the situation is under control, and then the policy will change into the adaptive phase. Notice that the simulation (figure 4) below with Great Britain’s population shows that with the adaptive policy, the majority of the time in the next 18 months will still be the suppression phase.
Taken together, unless the virus miraculously disappear, we will live through a relatively long period of “new normal” until a vaccine is deployed.
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上午他说自己发高烧。确诊了吗？
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也不是乐观吧，如果控制必须满足那三个条件，但是三个条件都很苛刻，所以其实并不乐观
我觉得还是要广泛测抗体，现在是头疼医头，脚痛医脚，很被动。