下面的话是google 直接翻译网页的，我就照抄了。 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FORECASTS March 16, 2020That's when the peak comes and when the emergency ends, according to government estimatesThe technical report of the emergency decree foresees that in two or three days we will reach the maximum of the infected. Then there will be a slow descent until April. If all goes well, if everyone follows the rules, the release from the virus will come on April 25th。 Good, for the moment, there are the numbers of the infrastructures. In Lombardy, intensive care beds have reached 1,200, as stated by the councilor for health Giulio Gallera, of whom 924 are occupied. All other figures, now, do not encourage: the infections have increased and reach 20,603, while the dead are 1,809 and the recovered (luckily more) are 2,335. When it will end? Difficult to say. Maybe in late April. As has been reported in some newspapers in recent days , the government's official forecast, contained in the technical report of the third emergency decree, places the peak, that is, the highest point of the ascending curve of the infections, on March 18. Two days still. The estimate, they explain, is based on the trend of the infections up to March 8 and elaborates a forecast for the following days, with a doubling and then a gradual decrease that would be due to the containment measures. In the end, a total of 92 thousand infections would be reached. At the moment, it seems that the numbers are correct: for March 15 the estimates spoke of 3,500 new cases and 3,590 were counted. For today, March 16 should be less than 4 thousand. If the trend follows the forecasts, also in light of the restrictive measures taken by the government crossed at the incubation periods of the infection, the emergency will be considered exhausted for April 25th. Again, a fateful date for Italy. In any case, it is better not to have excessive hopes. In the South, based on the trend of the spread of Lombardy, they expect the respective peak around late March and early April. But the worries are growing: if the Lombard numbers were verified, the health system would collapse. The hope is that the rush to sleep in the last few days - it is expected to add five thousand across the country in less than 45 days - will prove sufficient to contain the impact. In Campania, President Vincenzo De Luca has set up a plan to recover 490 beds, 102 of which are for intensive care. The more severe scenario, as he explained in one of his direct broadcasts, involves using «150 seats». We said, "we have to hold a month and a half, In Puglia, President Michele Emiliano must review the initial plans, he explains in an interview with Repubblica, in the light of the return "unexpected from the North" of almost 18,000 people, important and above all "underestimated" numbers because not all of them declared themselves. And then the Region, relying on the epidemiologist Pierluigi Lopalco, organizes itself to contain the infection by trying to "avoid hospitalization". In any case, the strategy throughout Italy will have to be mixed. Quarantine, yes. But also the search for the infected. In this sense - the team of doctors from Wuhan who came to Italy also said - the examination of the swab is done too little. We need a blanket approach, not limited only to those who have symptoms, since the infection often also passes through the asymptomatic. The model indicated would be South Korea. And if a new test model arrives shortly which allows results in a few minutes (and not the 24 hours needed now) this type of operation will become possible.
https://www.linkiesta.it/it/article/2020/03/16/coronavirus-italia-picco-fine-quarantena-epidemia/45859/
下面的话是google 直接翻译网页的，我就照抄了。
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FORECASTS
March 16, 2020That's when the peak comes and when the emergency ends, according to government estimatesThe technical report of the emergency decree foresees that in two or three days we will reach the maximum of the infected. Then there will be a slow descent until April. If all goes well, if everyone follows the rules, the release from the virus will come on April 25th。
Good, for the moment, there are the numbers of the infrastructures. In Lombardy, intensive care beds have reached 1,200, as stated by the councilor for health Giulio Gallera, of whom 924 are occupied. All other figures, now, do not encourage: the infections have increased and reach 20,603, while the dead are 1,809 and the recovered (luckily more) are 2,335.
When it will end? Difficult to say. Maybe in late April. As has been reported in some newspapers in recent days , the government's official forecast, contained in the technical report of the third emergency decree, places the peak, that is, the highest point of the ascending curve of the infections, on March 18. Two days still. The estimate, they explain, is based on the trend of the infections up to March 8 and elaborates a forecast for the following days, with a doubling and then a gradual decrease that would be due to the containment measures. In the end, a total of 92 thousand infections would be reached. At the moment, it seems that the numbers are correct: for March 15 the estimates spoke of 3,500 new cases and 3,590 were counted. For today, March 16 should be less than 4 thousand. If the trend follows the forecasts, also in light of the restrictive measures taken by the government crossed at the incubation periods of the infection, the emergency will be considered exhausted for April 25th. Again, a fateful date for Italy. In any case, it is better not to have excessive hopes. In the South, based on the trend of the spread of Lombardy, they expect the respective peak around late March and early April. But the worries are growing: if the Lombard numbers were verified, the health system would collapse. The hope is that the rush to sleep in the last few days - it is expected to add five thousand across the country in less than 45 days - will prove sufficient to contain the impact. In Campania, President Vincenzo De Luca has set up a plan to recover 490 beds, 102 of which are for intensive care. The more severe scenario, as he explained in one of his direct broadcasts, involves using «150 seats». We said, "we have to hold a month and a half, In Puglia, President Michele Emiliano must review the initial plans, he explains in an interview with Repubblica, in the light of the return "unexpected from the North" of almost 18,000 people, important and above all "underestimated" numbers because not all of them declared themselves. And then the Region, relying on the epidemiologist Pierluigi Lopalco, organizes itself to contain the infection by trying to "avoid hospitalization". In any case, the strategy throughout Italy will have to be mixed. Quarantine, yes. But also the search for the infected. In this sense - the team of doctors from Wuhan who came to Italy also said - the examination of the swab is done too little. We need a blanket approach, not limited only to those who have symptoms, since the infection often also passes through the asymptomatic. The model indicated would be South Korea. And if a new test model arrives shortly which allows results in a few minutes (and not the 24 hours needed now) this type of operation will become possible.