意大利考虑扩大red zone. Red zone在意大利约等于“封城”，不允许人员出来这种。如果擅自出来有法律责任，最高坐牢3个月。目前Red zone是十几个小镇。现在意大利政府表示正在考虑是否要把red zone扩大，比如Bergamo区域。其实大家都说的米兰怎么怎么样是不准确的，这次疫情最严重的是米兰近郊的一个小镇周边（联合利华热爱生活马拉松爱好者patient 1） 以及Bergamo（意甲亚特兰大所在地，意大利阿尔卑斯山区滑雪hub，有个机场）。
18: 27- Iss: "We evaluate red zone enlargement" "We are evaluating the opportunity to extend the red zone on the basis of some epidemiological, geographical and feasibility criteria of the measure". This was said by ISS president Silvio Brusaferro in the press conference on civil protection, speaking of the Bergamo area. "We are analyzing with Lombardy with great attention on new cases for municipalities in the Bergamo belt - he added - and we are seeing with the incidence data and on the basis of the virus reproduction rates".
The number of infected people in the canton of Zurich rose to 13 on Tuesday (March 3). The 4 new cases were partially infected in those who were already ill. The Health Directorate calls on the Zurich population to refrain from events with close contacts and to exercise restraint when visiting old age and care centers and in hospitals. The recommendation concerns clubs, events of all sizes with participating groups from the affected areas (Italy, China, South Korea, Iran) and events with external participants in retirement and nursing homes.
So far, 13 people in the canton of Zurich have been infected with the corona virus - 6 of them at the University of Zurich. The Health Directorate confirmed cases 10 to 13 on Tuesday (March 3rd). The confirmation of the national reference laboratory in Geneva is still pending. In all cases, the source of the infection could be traced - the people were infected in known cases. Most of those affected are doing so well that they would not have to be hospitalized if they had not been tested positive, it says in the media release of the Health Directorate.
In total, over 400 suspected cases have been tested in the canton. Zurich residents who want to report a suspected corona to a doctor should do so by phone: at the family doctor or via the medical hotline (0800 33 66 55), the cantonal emergency number of the Zurich medical profession.
It is also crucial to find all people who have had closer contact with the patient. So far, around thirty people have been persecuted in the canton of Zurich as part of so-called contact tracing, with fewer than half a dozen of them belonging to the narrow circle of those infected, cantonal doctor Brian Martin said at the media conference.
18.00 - The number of cases increases in Italy 2263 people tested positive for the virus: 88% are in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna and Veneto: 1034 are hospitalized, and of these 229 are in intensive care, while the number of the dead rises to 79. A total of 160 people recovered. In Lombardy we are 1,520 positive and 55 deceased . The extraordinary commissioner Angelo Borrelli also announced that 25,8900 tampons were made, + 10% compared to yesterday.
18.00 - The number of cases increases in Italy 2263 people tested positive for the virus: 88% are in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna and Veneto: 1034 are hospitalized, and of these 229 are in intensive care, while the number of the dead rises to 79. A total of 160 people recovered. In Lombardy we are 1,520 positive and 55 deceased . The extraordinary commissioner Angelo Borrelli also announced that 25,8900 tampons were made, + 10% compared to yesterday.
17.53 - 1520 positive patients in Lombardy The Councilor for Welfare Giulio Gallera at the press point in the Region has released the new data: there are 1520 positive cases, of which 698 in hospital, 167 in intensive care, in home isolation 461 and deceased 55. Increase in positive cases coincides with hospitalized, because swabs are made only to those who have symptoms. The numbers, explained Gallera, reveal that "the pathology is steadily increasing". "To date, there have been 220 places in intensive care for coronavirus in Lombardy compared to 167 employed: we have a good margin but we are preparing other places, in a few days another 50", said Gallera. In practice, he noted, all new positive cases (266) are now hospitalized, because only those with symptoms are being swab. Defense Minister Guerini assured the Lombardy Region that "14 doctors and 20 military health nurses will be available in the next few days, and within 10 days they will increase to 20 doctors and 20 nurses. A particularly appreciated contribution, "said Gallera.
3.47 pm - Maran's appeal to the elderly «Health authorities invite people over 65 to stay at home and avoid crowded situations. This is also why it is important that we show ourselves as a community. We do not hesitate to contact the neighbors we know and we think they may need; maybe he needs something or at least a good word is always nice, it is the sense of the campaign promoted by Luca Costamagna (Councilor of the Town Hall 3, ed.). And then there are supermarkets and pharmacies that have made home delivery free for over 65 by accepting the request of the Municipality of Milan, such as Lloyds Pharmacy and Coop. Everyone, institutions, businesses and citizens, can do our part to help others in this difficult situation ». So, on Facebook, the commissioner Pierfrancesco Maran sharing the initiative "For a good neighborhood", promoted by City Hall 3 which invites us not to forget "who is alone, who is elderly, who is afraid" with the hashtag #miprendocuradelmiovicino. Maran invites "those who have other positive stories to report and highlight do so in the comments". https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_03/coronavirus-aumentano-casi-milano-citta-provincia-tribunale-cinisello-balsamo-san-giuliano-milanese-9d49bab2-5d62-11ea-ad92-9d72350309c8.shtml
18: 27- Iss: "We evaluate red zone enlargement"
"We are evaluating the opportunity to extend the red zone on the basis of some epidemiological, geographical and feasibility criteria of the measure". This was said by ISS president Silvio Brusaferro in the press conference on civil protection, speaking of the Bergamo area. "We are analyzing with Lombardy with great attention on new cases for municipalities in the Bergamo belt - he added - and we are seeing with the incidence data and on the basis of the virus reproduction rates".
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瑞士的医疗水平大家应该很清楚，不说世界第一，也可以说和波士顿并列第一了。
当地政府已经对聚集性活动多加限制。并且限制visit老人院等地方，尽力保护易感人群。
苏黎世在准备充分，test及时的情况下仍然躲不过。很不幸，当地较低的气温和多湖泊的环境非常类似武汉。高铁从苏黎世到米兰只需要3小时40分钟。唯一的安慰就是空气质量好。。。
截止到周二 苏黎世已经有13人确诊。一半发生在苏黎世大学的聚集性病例。大家不要掉以轻心！
年轻人虽然自愈率非常高，但是社交活跃，容易变成超级传染源。另外更可能对身体变化不上心，流感猝死的事情可不少见，何况新冠！
The number of infected people in the canton of Zurich rose to 13 on Tuesday (March 3). The 4 new cases were partially infected in those who were already ill. The Health Directorate calls on the Zurich population to refrain from events with close contacts and to exercise restraint when visiting old age and care centers and in hospitals. The recommendation concerns clubs, events of all sizes with participating groups from the affected areas (Italy, China, South Korea, Iran) and events with external participants in retirement and nursing homes.
https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/coronavirus-in-der-schweiz-die-zahl-der-bestaetigten-faelle-steigt-ld.1542664
+
https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/coronavirus-im-kanton-zuerich-der-aktuelle-stand-ld.1543350#subtitle-wie-viele-infizierte-gibt-es-im-kanton-z-rich-first
So far, 13 people in the canton of Zurich have been infected with the corona virus - 6 of them at the University of Zurich. The Health Directorate confirmed cases 10 to 13 on Tuesday (March 3rd). The confirmation of the national reference laboratory in Geneva is still pending. In all cases, the source of the infection could be traced - the people were infected in known cases. Most of those affected are doing so well that they would not have to be hospitalized if they had not been tested positive, it says in the media release of the Health Directorate.
In total, over 400 suspected cases have been tested in the canton. Zurich residents who want to report a suspected corona to a doctor should do so by phone: at the family doctor or via the medical hotline (0800 33 66 55), the cantonal emergency number of the Zurich medical profession.
It is also crucial to find all people who have had closer contact with the patient. So far, around thirty people have been persecuted in the canton of Zurich as part of so-called contact tracing, with fewer than half a dozen of them belonging to the narrow circle of those infected, cantonal doctor Brian Martin said at the media conference.
https://whtc.com/news/articles/2020/mar/03/italy-considers-creating-new-coronavirus-red-zone-as-cases-rise-official/990721/?refer-section=world
大家千万不要去Bergamo 区域。
打开谷歌地图。找到Bergamo。
不要不要去那附近。。。。
现在这个消息出来了可能会有大量从Bergamo出逃的意大利人。。。！小心小心！
这里两个网站
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/ 可以看意大利数据 热心网友做的可视化很漂亮
新闻网站https://www.corriere.it/ 这个就在米兰 信息非常的干货 扯皮的政治宣传少 不仅有意大利的还有国际的 update特别的好
大家关注哦～
回见
首先板上很多misinformation.
几个fact:
1 意大利整体医疗水平不低，多年都是评分很高的，尤其对呼吸科非常擅长，常年第一名。尤其是意大利南北发展非常不均衡，伦巴底大区是发展非常好的。单独看这个大区，经济生活水平可以类比奥地利。不是很差的地方！
2 意大利只测试重症是五毛断章取义谣言。现在的措施是测试有症状的，或者确诊的密切接触者。因为一开始意大利是地毯式根据location测试，专门测试疫区来的，后来发现这个行不通，因为已经到处都有了，所以改了策略。否则不可能每天数字增长的这么快！25,8900测试。
3 意大利一直在拼命测试。意大利各地有自治传统。国家层面宣布的数字是中央核实的。各地的也自己报告自己的，数字很大，很努力的测试。因为大家都知道新冠最重要的就是测试，新冠用药和普通流感是不一样的，测试了才能用对药，对于防止轻症状恶化成重症至关重要！
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到这个新闻发布时候
2263确诊。
88%在北部疫区。
1034住院就医。其中229在intensive care. 79死亡。160恢复。
注意意大利的重症监护 不等于危重，看报道呼吸非常困难的很多地方就给进重症病房了。大家还记得武汉最困难的时候很多人非常严重了仍然在医院走廊里面游荡。这个在欧洲基本还都能给进intensive care. 但是已经有讨论说如果人数继续上升，怎么办。
方舱已经开始准备了。
18.00 - The number of cases increases in Italy
2263 people tested positive for the virus: 88% are in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna and Veneto: 1034 are hospitalized, and of these 229 are in intensive care, while the number of the dead rises to 79. A total of 160 people recovered. In Lombardy we are 1,520 positive and 55 deceased . The extraordinary commissioner Angelo Borrelli also announced that 25,8900 tampons were made, + 10% compared to yesterday.
这个我也看到了一些讨论
现在还不好下结论
但是意大利人口老龄化也是一个原因 意大利老龄化也就比日本好一丢丢
另外也有一个分析认为是patient 1接诊医院失误，造成医院交叉传播感染了非常多本身就虚弱的老龄病人有关系。类比西雅图老人院case.
一定要做好轻重分离，现在还来得及。湖南是一月十号开始准备帐篷，效果还不错。
瑞士人口数量约等于NYC
然而NYC还。。。结界啊。。。。真是。。。。。。。
现在也懒得嘲笑他们了
真希望他们能控制住
否则看看意大利那地理位置 整个地中海圈都要完蛋
北非如果爆炸就悲剧了
说不定这个才是真实的数据呢。 反正我是不相信如果两个月以来只死了小两三千人，武汉自己的殡丧业处理不了，还得河南和重庆的派队支援。
NYC这种地方，密度大，气候又不利于人体抗病毒，还不测，真是害死人啊。测了才好隔离和预防啊真是的。非常不看好. Nyc的朋友们一定要自己上心。口罩手套不能少人出门就戴，管别人怎么说。
中国的数据有问题
昨天那个美国吹哨人接受采访的时候也说这个数据有问题
问题主要有两方面
1 死亡数目计算偏小 中国开始的时候是只有“死于新冠”才算进去。而其他国家的办法是只要人死了，而且测试出来感染新冠病毒，就算。他们有另外一个“死于这个疾病”的数字。
2 确诊人数也偏小 这个大家都知道是怎么回事
所以这个死亡率的分子和分母都偏小 最后算出来的数据是错进错出
最值得分析的还是韩国和意大利的数据
意大利有个问题，它因为爆发的时候刚好是在医院cluster外加上老人聚集加成，所以现在死亡率特别高。后续能不能降下来，全世界都在看。
新天地里很多年轻成员，这次感染的就有很大比例的二三十岁的女性。所以韩国的死亡率没有代表性。伊朗和意大利这么高，可能是他们的轻症和无症状者都没有测，减小了分母。
在研究
前几天我贴过一个报道 是说米兰已经分离出来了病毒 半吊子意大利语加上机器翻译似乎说当地有两个系列的新冠virus在传播 事情比较复杂。根据他们分析，病毒似乎已经社区传播一个月了。
现在大家也都很frustrated
我朋友刚好有个韩国phd朋友，还是比较懂这方面的。他猜测可能和那个教会的人其实本身就被当地其他人排斥，所以大家并不喜欢和他们社交，有些关系。但是到底是什么原因怎么说，现在还不好讲，都是猜测。
大家觉得似乎已经过去了一个世纪
实际上。。。仅仅是十天前啊十天前。。。
密切接触者无症状也是给测试的
其他的总不能大街上所有人都抓来测试吧
现在数量太多 测试压力也很大 现在是结果可以保证最快速度出来告诉患者 然后当地local宣布上报中央核实需要比较久
所以你会看到中央/地方两套数字
德语的报道写意大利的病毒可能1月中旬就开始传染了，但可能要适应新的人种就进行了变异，所以变异到使适应新环境之后才大爆发的。
同意，可能是病毒的不同代。 真希望是这样，越传越弱了。
我大德语地区。。。这么多年了。。。还是对人种颇有研究啊
西雅图是老年人的nursing house院内感染了，那些老年人本来就是多种疾病在身， 不具有普遍性和代表性。
25,8900测试？多个0吗？如果是25,890，确诊2263，在有症状和密切接触者里面测，测出率10%，就是说测前的筛选还是很初步的，不知道是不是能抗得住压力，会不会拖延了真正有问题的人的测试。
美国这边我跟了一下报导，感觉主要不是不想测，是没能力测那么多，所以只能严格限制测什么人，虽然现在放权到州了，各个地区拿到的测试盒还是很有限的。为啥一直没有准备好测试盒，真是个谜啊。我倒是支持用肺部扫描来定义--在测试盒不够用也不够准的情况下。
意大利爆发的地方其实是近郊 说起来人口密度也不是非常高的 和美帝不少城市周围通勤圈也差不多。。。。。。。
他们那个打招呼亲脸的习惯确特别危险
是的 我看法语报道也这样说，和中国病毒很不一样，变异了，所以这么厉害。而且蛮古老的，一月中旬就开始在社区流传了
我意大利语不太行 看不懂他是说今天测试了25万还是累计。。。我觉得是累计吧。。。
不是多个零啊 你看原新闻。。。。连英国都测试一万多个人了呀
意大利肯定累计几十万测试了。。。。。。。。
PS: 我又查了下发现只有这里提到这个数字了 不确定是不是多了一个零 sorry
人家因斯布鲁克一天就测试一个旅店的人。。。
嗯
美帝就是没组织好。。。把什么灌水paper实验都停了去搞测试的话美帝测试能力给全世界测试都没问题。。。就是不给测。。。没啥好说的。。。。
瑞士全国总共一天能测1000例，一千。
Huh...有可能这个病毒就是对白人比较厉害。。所以美国开始被老中传染的人很少，就觉得没事，没想到被意大利病毒一捉一个准。。
米国测的少是不是因为各个州还在扯皮谁来付账的问题。。
确诊人数也是累计啊，那就是说测的人里面只有不到1%感染？有症状或者有接触的里面，确诊的比例这么低？
考虑到武汉每天正常时候死的，前期进不了医院家里死的。长期慢性病结果没地方看/看了给感染死的。再加上一度死亡率10%的。忙不过来好像可以理解。
嗯 你说的对
这个网站看得更清楚点 似乎是一些意大利热心网友搞得
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/
让地方测可是分不到什么盒子，看新闻的意思是很快会有盒子发下来，有能力测up to 1M，所以等盒子下来，数字。。。。
嘿嘿嘿嘿嘿嘿
给他们说你刚接触了从武汉回来的人？