We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks.We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later.I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia.We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1.Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down.However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic.China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.
We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks.We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later.I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia.We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1.Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down.However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic.China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.
Monte_Cristo 发表于 3/3/2020 1:40:56 AM
Still think that Wuhan is a different story. Maybe Seattle more like a non-Hubei city without good precautions, like certain city in China, or South Korea, or Italy...
I read some post from Wuhan it says if a patient gets on ECOM, very few actually survive... It is crucial to give right medicine (like Anti-AIDS or Remdesiv) to the patient BEFORE they have serious breathing problem But it needs test confirmed positive to able doctor perspective those medicine... So CDC killed this man, literally! 梅干茶泡饭 发表于 3/3/2020 10:17:00 AM
I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
不停聚会不停学，也不建议戴口罩，居家隔离，这在瞎搞什么？
🔥 最新回帖
Agree...
我在North Creek
🛋️ 沙发板凳
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/
We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks.We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later.I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia.We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1.Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down.However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic.China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.
你们这些ID每天不遗余力抹黑川普当别人都看不出来？
武汉有两个去世的医护是29岁
拼个人体质的时候到了。
体质好的，高龄也能抗过去。
体质弱的，年轻的也能挂。
有的爆料说是韩国人
吓人啊，所有亚洲超市都不能去了啊
Still think that Wuhan is a different story.
Maybe Seattle more like a non-Hubei city without good precautions, like certain city in China, or South Korea, or Italy...
两起没说有联系啊
所以意大利死的都是亚洲人？
还不如说拼运气。有体质好的免疫过激容易挂掉。
不是染病的高中生的爸爸。死者的儿子跟染病的高中生不在同一个高中，但是同一个county, 两个高中都close了。
希望他家人没事
天啊， bless你们小区都没事。
我觉得你们小区其实挺危险的，还有死者孩子那个高中也。。。不能想了。。。
R.I.P
这个世道就这样，好人往往不长命
啊竟然是他这这个大叔人超好的😢😥你们小区是233街附近吗？
感谢层主的一手信息
It is true!!!
Agree...
People should be prepared in case needing home self-isolated.
But all local government should prepare the shelter.
没症状 does not equal to not carry the virus. They could spread the virus to elderly people. Sigh...
Take care! Especially if you have parents there.
怎么知道没有基础病的？
没病三周吧。那个层主不是说三周前还去小区的人家里维修吗？哎，看着真难过
中国是吸烟者危险，美国是胖子危险。
美国 胖子 糖尿病史 还有过敏人群 哮喘人群 等等 都是很危险啊
中国人基础病肝病糖尿病胃病肺病也是很多
是白人吗？
应该已经传了一段时间了，健康的人都没事，抵抗力差一点的就严重了。如果不是传到了养老院，估计都没人重视，没人测
我们这的新闻说西雅图这个病毒至少已经传了6周了。。。
这个病的传染性非常强，不可能一直当流感的，你看西亚图搬病人的消防员都有症状了，你什么时候看过一个搬流感病人的消防员被传染的？ 2019 H1N1流感死亡率是万分之二，更是没法比，这个病死亡率在年轻人都是千分之几 。。。我觉得现在才是社区传染的开始，希望美国傻瓜们早点认识到两个病的区别
猪流感也是流感 结果一只猪染上整个养猪场的几百头猪都死了埋掉。。。
真的呢，在办公室看到这个帖子突然就想哭了
我开始认同在家隔离,但是看到一传一家后,再看方舟医院,越来越看着顺眼了.
你知道埃博拉死亡率有多高吗？就这么比。
死亡率高，反而不容易流行
政府所谓的风险管理中低风险就是死少数的人ok
I read some post from Wuhan it says if a patient gets on ECOM, very few actually survive...
It is crucial to give right medicine (like Anti-AIDS or Remdesiv) to the patient BEFORE they have serious breathing problem
But it needs test confirmed positive to able doctor perspective those medicine...
So CDC killed this man, literally!
没有，WHO最新的报道说，如果在重症开始的阶段，马上使用ECOM，在湖北省以外的存活率非常高，这是昨天的报道。
但是，需要非常rapid，湖北使用ECOM普遍较晚，所以死亡率高。 他说即使是意大利也不到中国湖北以外地区的速度。
前几天不是还有新闻美国医生上ECOM失败，本来一个小时上完的，上了四个小时没上好把病人上死了。
也许中国医生经历的病例多。我看了一个文章说，新肺炎，好多状况从未见过。 比如，你一插管，他心脏会马上停止，所以，每次上ECOM，需要做好非常多的预案。
用了这个的基本都没救回来。所以这个多也没用。你看那个解剖报告，好像是肺部粘液很多，本来肺部象气囊，有这个粘液后，就被充满了。
I would not quote that as the number. That’s the mortality in China — and they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
这个病根据中国的尸检报告，是因为肺部有痰液栓塞导致的呼吸困难。不管上什么机器都要先把痰弄出来，不然适得其反。中国最后的方法是具体病例具体分析，24小时紧密观察,有基础病的先治疗基础病,调动了一切医疗资源.
国内很多上了ECOM 的病人最后还是死了我估计是上晚了，已经出现多器官衰竭，那就不可逆了。
真的是考卷照抄都没法抄
到现在还拿人种说事的，脑子被驴踢了？还是根本没有脑子？
两党内斗，上下不齐心