UC Berkeley Coronavirus Email (CS189) Local Report Instructor Jonathan Shewchuk posted a new Note. Your instructor selected to notify everyone in real time of this post, bypassing user email preferences.
THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS
We still do not know whether the novel coronavirus will be merely a tempest in a teacup or a serious disruption to our lives, but we should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We do know for sure that there are now multiple cases of COVID-19 in the San Fransisco Bay Area, including some that got it from "community transmission"; that is, they did not travel from another country nor has the disease been traced to somebody who did. We have reasons to suspect that it has been circulating for longer than most people realize, and some of us may already have it.
SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, much moreso than a regular flu. In many patients, the virus seems to have a relatively quiet period of 2-4 weeks before pneumonia symptoms develop. (It's a bit complicated and uncertain; see the information attached below for some speculation.) One Bay Area COVID-19 patient checked into NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville on Feb. 15, implying that community transmission was probably already occurring in the Bay Area at the beginning of February. There is also evidence that it was already spreading in the Seattle area in mid-January. Which means that there is a possibility that some of you already have it and don't know it. There's also a small possibility that I might have it; I've had a mild cough for the last week and a half.
Given our uncertainty of the danger, I think it's better to risk overreacting than to risk underreacting. COVID-19 has a Case Fatality Rate estimated at 2-3.5%. An estimated 20% of cases require hospitalization (allegedly 50% in Italy), with a mean hospital stay of 10 days, usually with pneumonia symptoms. And although the virus is deadliest among the old and sick, some young, healthy people have died. Your odds of survival are very high, but if you have a severe case, it might be the worst experience of your life. Many patients need to be intubated and kept on ventilators. Moreover, if there are too many cases at once, then like in Wuhan, there won't be enough ventilators.
I do not think that the campus response has been adequate. I expect the virus to spread particularly quickly on campus because of our large population and our many large meetings, and it is distinctly possible that it is already spreading. I don't think campus authorities are acting in a manner commensurate with the long latency of the disease, or the fact that by the time the first severe case happens on campus, there will already be thousands of others on campus who also carry the virus.
I have both a hopeful message and a warning: small changes in behavior, if adopted by everybody on campus, could make the difference between a semester of minor inconveniences and a semester of cancelled classes and people you know suffering.
For these reasons, I cannot in good conscience recommend attending classes in person when videos are available. I have sent a request to the Course Capture Department asking them to minimize the delay between lectures and posting the videos. If you do wish to continue attending class, I would recommend spacing yourself out from other students.
Unfortunately, it is getting hard to find face masks and rubber gloves, but if you can get some, I recommend wearing them whenever you leave your home. (If you don't mind looking silly, add goggles, as it is reputed the virus can infect the eye.) Some authorities have been telling the public not to buy masks. I would strongly advise you to ignore that message (the product of a bureaucracy that sees us as nothing more than interchangeable resources). Also, remember that masks are not only to protect you, but also to protect other people if you have the virus. (Most people who have it will not initially realize they have it.)
Even more important is to avoid public meetings insofar as it is reasaonbly possible (stay home), to wash your hands frequently (alcohol alone doesn't suffice because it doesn't cut through oil; use a soap/surfactant and optionally add alcohol), and to avoid touching your face, mouth, eyes, nose, ears, etc. at all times. (One of the nice things about masks and gloves is that they remind you this.)
Lastly, I would like to solicit experiences from those of you who have used conferencing software that might meet our needs for online office hours and online discussion sections. The ideal conferencing software would include a choice of audio or video for up to at least 30 people, and some sort of shared whiteboard that mutliple people can draw/type on. People have suggested the following platforms, but I haven't yet tested any of them: Zoom, Google Hangouts, Twitch, and BrainCert's Virtual Classroom. Does anybody have enough experience with one of these platforms, or another platform, to say if it's suitable?
It's amazing to contemplate that 10% of the world's population is now under restrictions on leaving their homes, quarantines, and/or martial law (mainly in China, but also 50,000 people in Italy asked to stay home). Japan is closing all schools and colleges. The number of cases in Italy has been doubling daily, and the number of cases in South Korea and Iran has been increasing by 50% every day for at least a week. In Iran, a Vice President and a Deputy Health Minister are infected. Saudi Arabia just closed Mecca and Medina. Even the Pope has COVID-19! From China, we see videos of officials in hazmat suits everywhere, videos of sick Chinese being welded/nailed into their own apartments so they can't leave, videos of citizens being tackled and arrested for not wearing masks.
SARS-CoV-2 is extremely infectious (with an R0 estimated to be between 3 and 8), moreso than original SARS or MERS, and while we should do measures like hand-washing and even wearing masks, those aren't going to be enough. "Federal health officials starkly warned on Tuesday that the new coronavirus will almost certainly spread in the United States," says the New York Times. "`It's not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing." ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html )
We now know that the COVID-19 patient at the UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento is a Solano County woman who brought herself to NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville on Feb. 15, who did not travel from Asia, and whose source of infection is unknown but probably happened several weeks earlier. California is currently monitoring at least 8,400 people for COVID-19. Community transmission is probably well underway. I suspect there are dozens of people with undiagnosed COVID-19 in the Bay Area already, if not hundreds.
The likelihood of a serious disruption (such as a campus shutdown or delayed final exams) here at UC Berkeley is high enough that we should plan for it. It's not completely improbable that we will all be confined (to some degree) to our apartments some time in 2020, as the residents of Wuhan and (to a lesser degree) Shanghai are now. But that doesn't necessarily mean we have to cancel classes. In principle, we should be able to do almost everything online, as many students in China are doing now.
Back in late January, we started to see dozens of videos of people collapsing on the streets or in malls in China, and medical personnel collapsing while on the job in hospitals (perhaps suffering from septic shock). Now we're starting to see it in Korea.
The following is very tentative and not confirmed: some people believe that COVID-19 is a three-phase disease. This figure is a rough guess at the timeline:
In Stage 1, one experiences flu symptoms, usually not severe enough to curtail normal life. In Stage 2, one may be asymptotic but still transmitting the disease. (It is still a matter of controversy whether asymptomatic spreading is rare or common.) In Stage 3, the disease recurs. In about 80-85% of people it is still relatively mild, but in 15-20% it is severe. In severe cases, it usually manifests as pneumonia. Although the majority of the deaths seem to be due to respiratory failure, there are also deaths due to viral myocarditis of the myocardium of the heart, septic shock, and kidney or multiple organ failure. The virus attacks the lungs, but the virus or secondary bacterial infections also can cause problems with the heart, kidneys, stomach, and other organs. See, for instance, https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=772&v=Q0A0LyMru3I and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals ("Severe COVID-19 cases spent more than 4 weeks on ventilators.") For those who die, the end typically comes 3-6 weeks after infection. (For example, Xia Sisi, a 29-year-old doctor at a hospital in Wuhan, was infected on January 14 and died on February 22, 39 days later.)
It is believed that the incubation period may be as long as 24 days in some people. ( http://archive.is/8dsa9#selection-3735.0-3739.21 ) I'm not sure if that means 24 days before Stage 1, or 24 days for people who show no symptoms until Stage 3. A danger of the long incubation period(s) is that SARS-CoV-2 might already be spreading widely on campus.
Unfortunately, it is getting hard to find face masks and rubber gloves, but if you can get some, I recommend wearing them whenever you leave your home. (If you don't mind looking silly, add goggles, as it is reputed the virus can infect the eye.) Some authorities have been telling the public not to buy masks. I would strongly advise you to ignore that message (the product of a bureaucracy that sees us as nothing more than interchangeable resources). Also, remember that masks are not only to protect you, but also to protect other people if you have the virus. (Most people who have it will not initially realize they have it.)终于，在美国有人把大众应该戴口罩的显尔易见的理由及政府不推荐戴口罩的深层原因说出来
UC Berkeley Coronavirus Email (CS189)
Local Report
Instructor Jonathan Shewchuk posted a new Note. Your instructor selected to notify everyone in real time of this post, bypassing user email preferences.
THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS
We still do not know whether the novel coronavirus will be merely a tempest in a teacup or a serious disruption to our lives, but we should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We do know for sure that there are now multiple cases of COVID-19 in the San Fransisco Bay Area, including some that got it from "community transmission"; that is, they did not travel from another country nor has the disease been traced to somebody who did. We have reasons to suspect that it has been circulating for longer than most people realize, and some of us may already have it.
SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious, much moreso than a regular flu. In many patients, the virus seems to have a relatively quiet period of 2-4 weeks before pneumonia symptoms develop. (It's a bit complicated and uncertain; see the information attached below for some speculation.) One Bay Area COVID-19 patient checked into NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville on Feb. 15, implying that community transmission was probably already occurring in the Bay Area at the beginning of February. There is also evidence that it was already spreading in the Seattle area in mid-January. Which means that there is a possibility that some of you already have it and don't know it. There's also a small possibility that I might have it; I've had a mild cough for the last week and a half.
Given our uncertainty of the danger, I think it's better to risk overreacting than to risk underreacting. COVID-19 has a Case Fatality Rate estimated at 2-3.5%. An estimated 20% of cases require hospitalization (allegedly 50% in Italy), with a mean hospital stay of 10 days, usually with pneumonia symptoms. And although the virus is deadliest among the old and sick, some young, healthy people have died. Your odds of survival are very high, but if you have a severe case, it might be the worst experience of your life. Many patients need to be intubated and kept on ventilators. Moreover, if there are too many cases at once, then like in Wuhan, there won't be enough ventilators.
I do not think that the campus response has been adequate. I expect the virus to spread particularly quickly on campus because of our large population and our many large meetings, and it is distinctly possible that it is already spreading. I don't think campus authorities are acting in a manner commensurate with the long latency of the disease, or the fact that by the time the first severe case happens on campus, there will already be thousands of others on campus who also carry the virus.
I have both a hopeful message and a warning: small changes in behavior, if adopted by everybody on campus, could make the difference between a semester of minor inconveniences and a semester of cancelled classes and people you know suffering.
For these reasons, I cannot in good conscience recommend attending classes in person when videos are available. I have sent a request to the Course Capture Department asking them to minimize the delay between lectures and posting the videos. If you do wish to continue attending class, I would recommend spacing yourself out from other students.
Unfortunately, it is getting hard to find face masks and rubber gloves, but if you can get some, I recommend wearing them whenever you leave your home. (If you don't mind looking silly, add goggles, as it is reputed the virus can infect the eye.) Some authorities have been telling the public not to buy masks. I would strongly advise you to ignore that message (the product of a bureaucracy that sees us as nothing more than interchangeable resources). Also, remember that masks are not only to protect you, but also to protect other people if you have the virus. (Most people who have it will not initially realize they have it.)
Even more important is to avoid public meetings insofar as it is reasaonbly possible (stay home), to wash your hands frequently (alcohol alone doesn't suffice because it doesn't cut through oil; use a soap/surfactant and optionally add alcohol), and to avoid touching your face, mouth, eyes, nose, ears, etc. at all times. (One of the nice things about masks and gloves is that they remind you this.)
Lastly, I would like to solicit experiences from those of you who have used conferencing software that might meet our needs for online office hours and online discussion sections. The ideal conferencing software would include a choice of audio or video for up to at least 30 people, and some sort of shared whiteboard that mutliple people can draw/type on. People have suggested the following platforms, but I haven't yet tested any of them: Zoom, Google Hangouts, Twitch, and BrainCert's Virtual Classroom. Does anybody have enough experience with one of these platforms, or another platform, to say if it's suitable?
Thank you, Jonathan Shewhuk
===============================================================================
Appendix:
It's amazing to contemplate that 10% of the world's population is now under restrictions on leaving their homes, quarantines, and/or martial law (mainly in China, but also 50,000 people in Italy asked to stay home). Japan is closing all schools and colleges. The number of cases in Italy has been doubling daily, and the number of cases in South Korea and Iran has been increasing by 50% every day for at least a week. In Iran, a Vice President and a Deputy Health Minister are infected. Saudi Arabia just closed Mecca and Medina. Even the Pope has COVID-19! From China, we see videos of officials in hazmat suits everywhere, videos of sick Chinese being welded/nailed into their own apartments so they can't leave, videos of citizens being tackled and arrested for not wearing masks.
SARS-CoV-2 is extremely infectious (with an R0 estimated to be between 3 and 8), moreso than original SARS or MERS, and while we should do measures like hand-washing and even wearing masks, those aren't going to be enough. "Federal health officials starkly warned on Tuesday that the new coronavirus will almost certainly spread in the United States," says the New York Times. "`It's not so much of a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen,' Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in a news briefing." ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/health/coronavirus-us.html )
We now know that the COVID-19 patient at the UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento is a Solano County woman who brought herself to NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville on Feb. 15, who did not travel from Asia, and whose source of infection is unknown but probably happened several weeks earlier. California is currently monitoring at least 8,400 people for COVID-19. Community transmission is probably well underway. I suspect there are dozens of people with undiagnosed COVID-19 in the Bay Area already, if not hundreds.
The likelihood of a serious disruption (such as a campus shutdown or delayed final exams) here at UC Berkeley is high enough that we should plan for it. It's not completely improbable that we will all be confined (to some degree) to our apartments some time in 2020, as the residents of Wuhan and (to a lesser degree) Shanghai are now. But that doesn't necessarily mean we have to cancel classes. In principle, we should be able to do almost everything online, as many students in China are doing now.
Back in late January, we started to see dozens of videos of people collapsing on the streets or in malls in China, and medical personnel collapsing while on the job in hospitals (perhaps suffering from septic shock). Now we're starting to see it in Korea.
The following is very tentative and not confirmed: some people believe that COVID-19 is a three-phase disease. This figure is a rough guess at the timeline:
In Stage 1, one experiences flu symptoms, usually not severe enough to curtail normal life. In Stage 2, one may be asymptotic but still transmitting the disease. (It is still a matter of controversy whether asymptomatic spreading is rare or common.) In Stage 3, the disease recurs. In about 80-85% of people it is still relatively mild, but in 15-20% it is severe. In severe cases, it usually manifests as pneumonia. Although the majority of the deaths seem to be due to respiratory failure, there are also deaths due to viral myocarditis of the myocardium of the heart, septic shock, and kidney or multiple organ failure. The virus attacks the lungs, but the virus or secondary bacterial infections also can cause problems with the heart, kidneys, stomach, and other organs. See, for instance, https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=772&v=Q0A0LyMru3I and https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals ("Severe COVID-19 cases spent more than 4 weeks on ventilators.") For those who die, the end typically comes 3-6 weeks after infection. (For example, Xia Sisi, a 29-year-old doctor at a hospital in Wuhan, was infected on January 14 and died on February 22, 39 days later.)
It is believed that the incubation period may be as long as 24 days in some people. ( http://archive.is/8dsa9#selection-3735.0-3739.21 ) I'm not sure if that means 24 days before Stage 1, or 24 days for people who show no symptoms until Stage 3. A danger of the long incubation period(s) is that SARS-CoV-2 might already be spreading widely on campus.
身为同行，我的第一反应也是这个，真是发paper的人才
应该的