The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health. Here is
the press conference on Youtube
and the final report of the commission as PDF after they visited Beijing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Here are some interesting facts about Covid that I have not yet read in the media: When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet. 5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over. The province of Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, had 65,596 infected persons so far. A total of 40,000 employees were sent to Hubei from other provinces to help fight the epidemic. 45 hospitals in Wuhan are caring for Covid patients, 6 of which are for patients in critical condition and 39 are caring for seriously ill patients and for infected people over the age of 65. Two makeshift hospitals with 2,600 beds were built within a short time. 80% of the infected have mild disease, ten temporary hospitals were set up in gymnasiums and exhibition halls for those. China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus. The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare - and most of them fall ill in the next few days. The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid. An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere. Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The most important thing is firstly to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly to increase the number of beds (including material and personnel) until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago. Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases. Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected: [table=344] Age % of population% of infected Fatality 0-9 12.0%0,9% 0 as of now 10-19 11.6%1.2% 0.1% 20-29 13.5%8.1% 0.2% 30-39 15.6%17.0% 0.2% 40-49 15.6%19.2% 0.4% 50-59 15.0%22.4% 1.3% 60-69 10.4%19.2% 3.6% 70-79 4.7%8.8% 8.0% 80+ 1.8%3.2% 14.8% Read: Out of all people who live in China, 13.5% are between 20 and 29 years old. Out of those who were infected in China, 8.1% were in this age group. This does not mean that 8.1% of people between 20 and 29 become infected. It means that the likelihood of someone at this age to catch the infection is somewhat lower compared to the average. And of those who caught the infection in this age group, 0.2% died. Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn. The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus. Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment. One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%. Finally, a few direct quotes from the report: "China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak." "Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures." "COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement."
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). 这搁在哪里，医疗资源都不够用了，想起早先有id说早得早安生的。
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). 这搁在哪里，医疗资源都不够用了，想起早先有id说早得早安生的。 Mimi4 发表于 3/1/2020 11:17:32 PM
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). 这搁在哪里，医疗资源都不够用了，想起早先有id说早得早安生的。 Mimi4 发表于 3/1/2020 11:17:32 PM
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid. 这个对自我诊断也有帮助
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid. 这个对自我诊断也有帮助 Mimi4 发表于 3/2/2020 12:29:40 AM
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). 这搁在哪里，医疗资源都不够用了，想起早先有id说早得早安生的。 Mimi4 发表于 3/1/2020 11:17:00 PM
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid. 这个对自我诊断也有帮助 Mimi4 发表于 3/2/2020 12:29:00 AM
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&from=groupmessage
The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health. Here is
When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over. The province of Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, had 65,596 infected persons so far. A total of 40,000 employees were sent to Hubei from other provinces to help fight the epidemic. 45 hospitals in Wuhan are caring for Covid patients, 6 of which are for patients in critical condition and 39 are caring for seriously ill patients and for infected people over the age of 65. Two makeshift hospitals with 2,600 beds were built within a short time. 80% of the infected have mild disease, ten temporary hospitals were set up in gymnasiums and exhibition halls for those.
China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.
The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare - and most of them fall ill in the next few days.
The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.
An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.
Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The most important thing is firstly to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly to increase the number of beds (including material and personnel) until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.
Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases.
Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected:
[table=344]
Age % of population% of infected Fatality
0-9 12.0%0,9% 0 as of now
10-19 11.6%1.2% 0.1%
20-29 13.5%8.1% 0.2%
30-39 15.6%17.0% 0.2%
40-49 15.6%19.2% 0.4%
50-59 15.0%22.4% 1.3%
60-69 10.4%19.2% 3.6%
70-79 4.7%8.8% 8.0%
80+ 1.8%3.2% 14.8%
Read: Out of all people who live in China, 13.5% are between 20 and 29 years old. Out of those who were infected in China, 8.1% were in this age group. This does not mean that 8.1% of people between 20 and 29 become infected. It means that the likelihood of someone at this age to catch the infection is somewhat lower compared to the average. And of those who caught the infection in this age group, 0.2% died.
Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn.
The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus.
Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment.
One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.
Finally, a few direct quotes from the report: "China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak." "Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures." "COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement."
治愈速度严重低于病例增速，不早扼制减低感染数，很快医疗资源枯竭
所以要封城。不封城，再来个千万级人口的大城市，全中国都完蛋。 就是封晚了。
所以武汉人民是真牺牲了/被牺牲了。但是只有这样，全国才能其他各地的 医生聚集武汉来保一个城市。
进了，记者会都开过了。https://forums.huaren.us/showtopic.aspx?topicid=2510280
中文报告也出了。
An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%.
往好了想，如果空气质量，温度，人口密度，公共卫生等条件好，会大幅降低传播病例速度也是可能的。
去武汉了，但没去疫区，按他们自己的原话讲是没去dirty area
这是wishful thinking 吗？
so gar
两党一个都没有。
都在到处拉力拉票。
嗯，哪怕是不相信数据，放大着看也行啊。都是人命换来的。
没去dirty area那个死亡率就是假的！
所以放开测，特效药特别重要。希望人民的希望有用。一测出来就吃药。
台湾的公卫专家分析过，如果全社会都戴口罩，可以迅速减小传播系数R0值。所以台湾反应特别快第一下就禁止口罩出口，台湾岛内有几条生产线是新加坡投资的，新加坡政府也想要从台湾运回去，台湾似乎没有同意。这点看蔡博士政府还是有先见之明，台湾也吸取了SARS的经验教训。
你就想这些就算是修饰过的数据的话，如果实际情况更差的话，美国政府不应该更警觉吗？就看着这些数据都知道这不是一个大号流感了。
是啊...批判无所谓，批判也要有建设性和启发性吧
这应该单独开贴发给大家看，比隔壁一个什么憋气10秒钟自测肺炎管用
我老早就说了，主要症状是发烧和干咳，流鼻涕等上呼吸道感染症状比较少
是的。我对他们都极其失望。
所谓防疫，你都按最严重的情况办，肯定最安全，总不能在韩国意大利数据没出来之前按不严重来处理吧，如果有后续的国家数据新的数据，你可以再根据实际情况把隔离措施等级方法等调整吧。
这次关注了几个国家的应对，
新加坡最科学最严谨，不断航不影响社会运转, 但是扎实做了流行病分析和隔离，看起来不会大规模爆发；
美国很早就掐断了大部分中国旅客，但是内部管理检测一团糟，政府和不少民众盲目自信，错过了第一个防控窗口，会不会爆发要看下两周；
日本政府为了保奥运，帮中国帮得很起劲，但是国内各种不作为，拖拖拉拉，搞不好要鸡飞蛋打；
韩国本身防疫措施没有大问题，无奈遇到邪教，总统不愧是特种兵民权律师出身，敢上前线敢出手，公务员系统效率也高，但是数字实在太难看，不过韩国总统只能做一届，也不存在连任问题，但是下一次亲中派就难了；
加拿大最甜最迷，一直不禁航，好像也没有强制措施，居然人数那么少。
在台湾的，下次还要投菜菜一票才行。
不能吧，如果既有流感也有新冠的话，就会流鼻涕。
这么高的家庭传染率说明家庭隔离根本不work!
美国竟然确诊后还在做家庭隔离？cdc的官员到底有没有认真的读过任何一个关于新冠的报告？还是继续沉浸在we are proud of what we did. We did a great job的幻觉中？
从一开始不知所谓的测量的时候exclude ones who Contacts known case,
中国，日本人传人已经发现被公布后，还在继续坚持只测从武汉旅行回来的。
中国已经有大量流感和新冠并存的病例，还继续流感确诊阳性就坚决不测新冠，
不测就是不测。
到最后放开测后,立刻满地开花，依然对确诊的病例依然要求回家自我隔离！
中国巨大的经济代价和亿万人的生活不变换来的血泪教训,cdc的官员根本不屑一看。恐怕最后美国lessons will be learned, but in a much harder way!
所以美国这边一样可能要牺牲一堆人才能换来重视，人真是本性不见棺材不掉泪。隔岸观火和自己亲身经历到底还是有本质区别的。只求自己和家人不是被牺牲的一批人了。
加拿大已经在酝酿之中了，一个周末多了7个从伊朗来的确诊，背后没发现的不知道有多少，这样继续不断有输入病例，社区传播估计也是时间问题
谁说新加坡没断航？1月底2月头就宣布禁止中国人以及14天以内有中国行程的入境了
国内小朋友的数据是建立在放寒假居家的基础上的，如果上学情况就不同了。
政客都代表大资本家利益吧，大资本家不肯停工的，然后他们都可以躲起来，西方人又普遍不了解中国，不会参照中国的，我们集两边信息优势才特别重视。 最后美国会怎么样不知道了。
觉得中国医疗条件设施不行（虽然在落后地区也是事实，但是国内大城市的三甲现在很不错），所以很多事mishandling ,(也不完全错)， 低估了病毒的严重性
这普通的美国人对中国了解太少了
最后比较尴尬。别人不方便来，你也不大敢出去。
‘曲突徙薪’亡恩泽，焦头烂额为上客耶？
早就说了戴口罩起码能防止人摸嘴摸鼻子。但是马上有人跳出来说只是为了防止摸脸就要消耗口罩太浪费。我没做实验，没法获得别人的数据，只说自己。我自己因为实验室工作，长期戴手套，对摸脸形成了很强的意识。在外面我经常因为脸上哪里痒想摸一下想得抓狂，只好去厕所洗手再摸，或者那干净纸巾擦一下痒的地方。在家我觉得手比较干净就直接摸了。但我每次都能意识到自己摸了。一天下来我会摸很多次脸。
这个跟日本那个荧光实验显示手上的东西会跑到脸上一样，不是你注意不摸脸就能避免的。你注意小朋友也很难注意。除非像我这样职业习惯使然，否则要阻止摸脸还是戴口罩（甚至护目镜和手套）加勤洗手才行。
谁知道到底怎么回事。我不太相信WHO。
武汉封城是丧尽天良的反人类行为。支持武汉封城的各位，等同样的命运轮到自己和家人，还大赞特赞，我就服。
所以任由病毒扩散造成十倍的人员死亡是人道行为？
《超限战》看一下，这对中共来说是千载难逢的机会，我不相信他们有这么好。
什么叫任由扩散？有控制，不是只能封城。
轮到你和你家人封在里面要死绝了的时候，愿你不改初心。