由于显而易见的原因，用的非中国数据。死亡率现在在1%以上，但是热带地区的数据很鼓励人。美国多数地区4月就会60多度了，所以我们还有4-6个星期的冷天需要对付。到时候流感季节也过去了，医院资源也更充裕。(注：理论来讲DEATH RATE=NO. OF DEATHS/(NO. OF DEATHS+RECOVERY). 但是现在中国以外的case刚开始，所以无法用科学的定义来算。）
bloomberg看到一些干货： ”About 40 public health labs can currently test for the virus using the modified version of the existing tests, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in Washington Thursday. A new test kit the government is developing could be sent to more than 90 public-health labs as soon as Monday, he said.
… The existing test, built by CDC just a few weeks after the virus was sequenced, is able to detect small amounts of the virus found in swabs taken from the nose and throats of potential patients. It’s called a real-time polymerase chain-reaction test, or real-time PCR, and it takes about four to six hours to run. Local labs have run into issues performing what’s called validation -- a crucial step to determine if the tests are reliable. The test looks at the genetic material of the virus to confirm the pathogen is present. It involves a series of three sub-tests, all of which have to be positive for the full test to be considered positive. State and local labs have run into problems with the third of the sub-tests. Becker, from the lab association, said federal health officials were going to let them drop that part and use only two.“ https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/Q6DBTTDWX2PW
”About 40 public health labs can currently test for the virus using the modified version of the existing tests, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in Washington Thursday. A new test kit the government is developing could be sent to more than 90 public-health labs as soon as Monday, he said.
… The existing test, built by CDC just a few weeks after the virus was sequenced, is able to detect small amounts of the virus found in swabs taken from the nose and throats of potential patients. It’s called a real-time polymerase chain-reaction test, or real-time PCR, and it takes about four to six hours to run. Local labs have run into issues performing what’s called validation -- a crucial step to determine if the tests are reliable. The test looks at the genetic material of the virus to confirm the pathogen is present. It involves a series of three sub-tests, all of which have to be positive for the full test to be considered positive. State and local labs have run into problems with the third of the sub-tests. Becker, from the lab association, said federal health officials were going to let them drop that part and use only two.“ https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/Q6DBTTDWX2PW
fwiw，我现在做的是家里囤了pasta，米，面等。消毒液，少许饮用水。蜡烛和太阳能收音机都有。
娃学校现在开始搞远程教育的计划，以防万一。我们公司如果需要也会远程上班。
我们如果不是必须的，尽量不去医院。
昨天晚上的讲话，我觉得最重要的是：
1.疫苗最快1年出来
2.近期的希望就在人民的希望。加速测试，有用就是它了。
3.旅行计划要有灵活性。
下面是数据：
（测试不够的地区的数字我觉得不是很好用，但是聊胜于无。）
[table=98%]
[td=166]Cumulative data as of 2/27/2020[td=84][td=84][td=84][td=84][td=84][td=84][td=84][td=84]
Cases Recovered Recovery rate Serious&Critical [td=84] Serious&Critical
Rate
Deaths [td=84] Death rate
to date
Comments
Not testing constrained; cold
Korea 1,766 24 1.4% 18 1.0% 13 0.7% Exhibited hospital capacity shortage
Italy 528 3 0.6% 19 3.6% 14 2.7%
Japan 207 32 15.5% 13 6.3% 4 1.9%
Total 2,501 59 2.4% 50 2.0% 31 1.2%
Testing constrained; cold
US 60 6 10.0% 1 1.7% 0 0.0% Includes 3 from Wuhan repatriation and 42 from Diamond Princess
Germany 26 15 57.7% 2 7.7% 0 0.0%
France 18 11 61.1% 1 5.6% 2 11.1%
UK 15 8 53.3% 2 13.3% 0 0.0%
Canada 12 3 25.0% NA 0 0.0%
Total 131 43 32.8% 6 5.0% 2 1.5%
Warmer climate
Singapore 93 58 62.4% 7 7.5% 0 0.0%
Hongkong 92 18 19.6% 6 6.5% 2 2.2%
Thailand 40 15 37.5% 2 5.0% 0 0.0%
Taiwan 32 5 15.6% NA 1 3.1%
Australia 23 15 65.2% NA 0 0.0%
Malaysia 22 17 77.3% NA 0 0.0%
Vietnam 16 16 100.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Macau 10 6 60.0% NA 0 0.0%
Philippines 3 1 33.3% NA 0 0.0%
India 3 3 100.0% NA 0 0.0%
Total 334 154 46.1% 15 6.2% 3 0.9%
Other notables
Diamond Princess 705 10 36 5.1% 4 0.6%
Iran 245 26 10.6%
Source:
[td=3,1]https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
bloomberg看到一些干货：
”About 40 public health labs can currently test for the virus using the modified version of the existing tests, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in Washington Thursday. A new test kit the government is developing could be sent to more than 90 public-health labs as soon as Monday, he said.
…
The existing test, built by CDC just a few weeks after the virus was sequenced, is able to detect small amounts of the virus found in swabs taken from the nose and throats of potential patients. It’s called a real-time polymerase chain-reaction test, or real-time PCR, and it takes about four to six hours to run.
Local labs have run into issues performing what’s called validation -- a crucial step to determine if the tests are reliable. The test looks at the genetic material of the virus to confirm the pathogen is present. It involves a series of three sub-tests, all of which have to be positive for the full test to be considered positive.
State and local labs have run into problems with the third of the sub-tests. Becker, from the lab association, said federal health officials were going to let them drop that part and use only two.“
https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/Q6DBTTDWX2PW
也就是下周病例会突然增加
追求recover率只能造成大跃进式康复，比如土共
recovery是早晚的事情，有的地方激进有的地方保守吧。
国内除武汉之外的数据是小于1%的。
法国11.1%???
“美国多数地区4月就会60多度了，所以我们还有4-6个月的冷天需要对付”？
星期。谢谢纠正。
看看国土安全局的发言， Covid-2 死亡率2%, 流感死亡率 2%, 如果这样的人一直像上面报告， 能重视的起来吗？ 那个国土安全局的人，一问三不知。 啥都要回去查数据。。。
原帖写了。bno
”About 40 public health labs can currently test for the virus using the modified version of the existing tests, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in Washington Thursday. A new test kit the government is developing could be sent to more than 90 public-health labs as soon as Monday, he said.
…
The existing test, built by CDC just a few weeks after the virus was sequenced, is able to detect small amounts of the virus found in swabs taken from the nose and throats of potential patients. It’s called a real-time polymerase chain-reaction test, or real-time PCR, and it takes about four to six hours to run.
Local labs have run into issues performing what’s called validation -- a crucial step to determine if the tests are reliable. The test looks at the genetic material of the virus to confirm the pathogen is present. It involves a series of three sub-tests, all of which have to be positive for the full test to be considered positive.
State and local labs have run into problems with the third of the sub-tests. Becker, from the lab association, said federal health officials were going to let them drop that part and use only two.“
https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/Q6DBTTDWX2PW
也就是下周病例会突然增加
对。今年暖冬。我现在谨慎乐观。
我觉得是。就是香港台湾的感觉。