WHO代表仍认为无症状传播的说法有待商榷，同时表示，如从11月底或者12月初算起，新冠疫情发展之快实为罕见。 https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/01/top-who-official-says-not-too-late-to-stop-coronavirus-outbreak/ But Ryan said the data the WHO are seeing suggests some people who have been publicly labeled “asymptomatic” were actually already experiencing some symptoms. “We still believe, looking at the data, that the force of infection here, the major driver, is people who are symptomatic, unwell, and transmitting to others along the human-to-human route,” he said. “That is the pressure wave.” Ryan admitted he was surprised by the speed with which the outbreak has taken off. China alerted the WHO to the fact that it believed a new virus was causing pneumonia in the central Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec. 31. On Jan. 7 it announced it had isolated a new virus. The total number of confirmed cases in this outbreak — just a month old — has already surpassed the SARS outbreak, which played out over a period of at least eight months in 2002-2003. “For me it’s been unusual to see a new disease emerge and, on the face of it, move so quickly,” he said. If the scientists studying the genetic sequences of the viruses are right and the outbreak began sometime in late November or early December, “then this is a very rapid emergence and very rapid infection of a lot of people.”
But Ryan said the data the WHO are seeing suggests some people who have been publicly labeled “asymptomatic” were actually already experiencing some symptoms.
“We still believe, looking at the data, that the force of infection here, the major driver, is people who are symptomatic, unwell, and transmitting to others along the human-to-human route,” he said. “That is the pressure wave.”
Ryan admitted he was surprised by the speed with which the outbreak has taken off. China alerted the WHO to the fact that it believed a new virus was causing pneumonia in the central Chinese city of Wuhan on Dec. 31. On Jan. 7 it announced it had isolated a new virus.
The total number of confirmed cases in this outbreak — just a month old — has already surpassed the SARS outbreak, which played out over a period of at least eight months in 2002-2003.
“For me it’s been unusual to see a new disease emerge and, on the face of it, move so quickly,” he said. If the scientists studying the genetic sequences of the viruses are right and the outbreak began sometime in late November or early December, “then this is a very rapid emergence and very rapid infection of a lot of people.” huarenmochi 发表于 2/2/2020 5:32:48 PM
The approach, the experts told STAT, is likely resulting in both an underestimate in the total number of cases and flawed assumptions about fatality rates calculated by those who ignore the repeated caution that it’s too soon to do that math. The experts were quick to note that the Chinese are not willfully underreporting cases. Rather, the approach is a testament to how challenging data collection can be during the early days of an epidemic. When thousands of sick people show up at hospitals looking for care, there is no time to go searching for people who have mild symptoms and who have stayed home. Likewise it’s unclear how many mild infections are being missed. The Chinese are currently only testing people who are sick enough to seek medical care because they have pneumonia — a criterion that automatically excludes anyone on the mild end of the disease spectrum. With some diseases, there isn’t much mild illness. In the case of the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, for example, most people who became infected ended up in hospital, noted Dr. Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at Hong Kong University and a veteran of that city’s battle against the disease. “The look and feel of the exported cases, I think, really support the argument that there’s a lot of mild disease that is not being detected in China at the moment for the very good reason that they just can’t do it,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, who fought SARS in Toronto and helped contain hospital outbreaks of MERS in Saudi Arabia. Both SARS and MERS are coronaviruses, related to the new virus. Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms 提炼：不同于SARS，新冠无症状传播，因而给防控带来额外的挑战和难度。中国最早提出此观点，美国和WHO反复强调仍在讨论中。
Some viruses, including SARS, which is another coronavirus, can only be passed when a person is showing symptoms. Others, like the flu, can be spread a day or two before the onset of symptoms. If people are contagious before they become sick, they can be unknowingly spreading the virus as they go shopping or to work or to the movies. Trying to snuff out the virus in that case is a much more difficult task.
Until now, there was some debate whether asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus was possible. Health officials in China said last weekend that they had seen evidence of such spread, but U.S. health officials and leaders at the World Health Organization had repeatedly said that was a question they were still trying to answer.
Health experts warn China travel ban will hinder coronavirus response 提炼：公共卫生角度认为旅行禁令效果有限，甚至有反作用。然而，因为其可见性，民众往往希望政府能采取此类措施。 “From a public health perspective, there is limited effectiveness. And then there are a host of other reasons why they can actually be counterproductive,” said Catherine Worsnop, who studies international cooperation during global health emergencies at the University of Maryland. “People want their government to do something when these outbreaks are happening, and adopting a border restriction is a visible policy that people think works,” Worsnop said.
New Article: Why the New Coronavirus (Mostly) Spares Children https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/05/health/coronavirus-children.html “The median age of sufferers is between 49 and 56 years,” in response to a represent printed on Wednesday in JAMA. “My solid, educated guess is that youthful of us are getting infected, but they pick up the slightly milder illness,” mentioned Dr. Malik Peiris, chief of virology at the University of Hong Kong, who has developed a diagnostic take a look at for the unique coronavirus. Scientists also can fair not be seeing more infected young of us because “we don’t own knowledge on the milder cases,” he mentioned. “If this coronavirus spreads worldwide, and it spreads as broadly as the seasonal flu does, maybe we’ll leer more,” he added.
"The name it has now is not easy to use and the media and the public are using other names for the virus," says Dr Watson. "The danger when you don't have an official name is that people start using terms like China Virus, and that can create a backlash against certain populations." With social media, unofficial names take hold quickly and are hard to take back, she says. The urgent task of formally naming the virus is the responsibility of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV). Previous outbreaks provide cautionary tales for the team. The H1N1 virus in 2009 was dubbed "swine flu". This led Egypt to slaughter all of its pigs, even though it was spread by people, not pigs.
纽时：为什么新冠肺炎（mostly基本上）放过儿童
How the new coronavirus will finally get a proper name BBC：新冠2019即将获得正式命名 ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
原贴1：《波士顿环球报》旗下的医疗科普媒体Stat：新冠无症状难控制；疫情初期轻症难统计；入境禁令难有效
STAT是Boston Globe旗下的科普媒体，最近有三篇（洗地
Limited data may be skewing assumptions about severity of coronavirus outbreak, experts say
提炼：疫情早期收集数据具有挑战性，往往集中应对和治疗有症状和重症者，未有余力甄别大量轻症及无症状人员，导致后者难以计入（分母偏小），导致各项比例不准确。此阶段统计死亡率过早，且重症率也难以判断。新冠未必比已知疾病致死率高，但当然大面积扩散本身存在风险。另外值得一提的是，SARS极少有轻症者（不同于新冠）。
Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms
提炼：不同于SARS，新冠无症状传播，因而给防控带来额外的挑战和难度。中国最早提出此观点，美国和WHO反复强调仍在讨论中。
Health experts warn China travel ban will hinder coronavirus response
提炼：公共卫生角度认为旅行禁令效果有限，甚至有反作用。然而，因为其可见性，民众往往希望政府能采取此类措施。
WHO 代表可以退休了。。。。。。。知识落后思维僵化
这个教授是研究public policy 的，根本不是搞流行病的。怎么也得找个专业的发表意见吧
https://spp.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/catherine-z-worsnop
现如今，是个人就叫自己专家。
就采访对象的合理性而言：她主要回答的是关于入境禁令这类政策的问题，所以跟她的研究方向是符合的，她以前的projects也是跟Trade and Travel Barriers During Disease Outbreaks有关的。
Her research focuses on global governance and, specifically, on the role of international organizations in global health security.
赞楼主
武汉的确应该解封
Sars 太久远，Ebola 时候她在哪里？这么多公共关系大拿，舍近求远找个UMD 采访算怎么回事？还是个AP
截图中，作者的第二篇文章就是ebola。另外不是公共关系（传播学），是医疗公共政策。
（AP苦命，为了拿tenure每年要发那么多paper，结果还是被歧视
纽时：为什么新冠肺炎（mostly基本上）放过儿童