柳叶刀的文章,>75000 in great Wuhan area

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solren
楼主 (北美华人网)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#%20

we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. 
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nekomimi
我觉得这个文章还挺科学的 另外 7.5万是25号的预测数字 The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days 那么我理解是2.1号是预计15万了