这条twitter太吓人了，他后来又发了几条，比如：“ Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.”
打你脸：Harvard Chan School of Public Health 是最好的公共卫生学院了，研究人群健康，这个就涵盖了疾病在群体传播。 “Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.”
打你脸：Harvard Chan School of Public Health 是最好的公共卫生学院了，研究人群健康，这个就涵盖了疾病在群体传播。 “Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.”
“ Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.”
who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf …SARS Initial R0 = 2.9, post-control = 0.4. Three different models showed R0 of approximately 3 in the absence of public health measures. Double check the numbers before getting everyone riled up, it hurts your credibility.
看自己主页介绍，好像是个讲师？明白人科普一下 https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home 看了简历，这哥们好像挺想红的，于是我又查了下wiki，wiki写他是访学的。访学的就是哈佛流行病专家？当然了wiki也不一定准。 Eric L. Feigl-Ding is an American public health scientist who has received awards for his work in epidemiology, nutrition, and health economics. He is a visiting scientist at the Harvard School of Public Health and Chief Health Economist and Senior Vice President with Microclinic International
看自己主页介绍，好像是个讲师？明白人科普一下 https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home 看了简历，这哥们好像挺想红的，于是我又查了下wiki，wiki写他是访学的。访学的就是哈佛流行病专家？当然了wiki也不一定准。 Eric L. Feigl-Ding is an American public health scientist who has received awards for his work in epidemiology, nutrition, and health economics. He is a visiting scientist at the Harvard School of Public Health and Chief Health Economist and Senior Vice President with Microclinic International
看起来背景很牛啊，流行病和营养学的双博士，Harvard最年轻的双博士。“He graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard. Teaching at Harvard for over 15 years, he has advised and mentored 2 dozen students, and lectured in more than a dozen graduate and undergraduate courses, for which he received the Derek Bok Distinction in Teaching Award from Harvard College.”
R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It's a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It's also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.
对于一般每年出现的流感，这个数字大概是1，也就是说R0=1。这么一对比，你就知道3.8有多可怕了。
While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
HOLY MOTHER OF G*D - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I'm not exaggerating... "We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult."!!!! SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus 🦠 epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS's modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic's spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let's hope it doesn't reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. WHO and CDC needs to declare public health emergency ASAP! What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It's around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. And it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: "crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible"! Let's pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there's unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus's R0=2.5, that's still 2x higher than seasonal flu's 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing
https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home
哈佛流行病学家Eric Feigl-Ding今天在推特发文：根据模型，武汉肺炎传播的基本生殖数(Ro)达到恐怖的3.8。这可能是自1918年西班牙大流感以来最严重传染病，比SARS传染速度快8倍，单独封城无法阻止它的传播（顶多在接下来两周能减缓1/3），世界卫生组织和美国疾病预防控制中心必须立刻宣布健康紧急警报。
注：1918年（西班牙）流感大流行（英语：1918 flu pandemic）是于1918年1月至1920年12月间爆发的全球性H1N1甲型流感[1]疫潮，由一种称为西班牙型流行性感冒（英语：Spanish flu）引起的传染病，曾经造成全世界5亿人感染[2]，5千万到1亿人死亡（当时世界人口17亿人），传播范围达到太平洋群岛及北极地区[3]；其全球平均致死率为2.5%-5%，和一般流感的0.1%比较起来极为致命。其名字由来并不是因为此流感从西班牙爆发，而是因为当时西班牙的疫情最为严重（亦有指当时因第一次世界大战参战各国对传媒有严格管制；只有中立国西班牙能大肆报道，令时人错觉当地疫情特别严重），有约8百万人受感染，甚至包括西班牙国王阿方索十三世，所以被称为西班牙型流行性感冒。至于在西班牙则以著名歌剧Naples Soldier为其命名，为人类历史上最致命的自然事件之一。[2][4][5][6]
一般流感通常死亡的是幼童及老年人、或是免疫功能低下的患者。但本次流行事件死者最多的却是青壮年。现今的研究将病毒株从死者的冷冻尸体中分离，显示本病毒致死的原因是因为引起细胞素风暴，导致自体免疫系统过度反应。因此免疫力最强的青壮年反而最容易引起强烈的免疫反应而死[7]。此一疾病在多处亦被昵称为西班牙女士。
🔥 最新回帖
就问一下现在的美国总统是不是姓希名拉里
这个问题问的好！
社会实践和工程实践都是要加足够裕量的。
就好比桥梁倒了飞机摔了人死了是不能复生的。而因为数学上混沌理论的存在，啥实践模型都有小概率事件蝴蝶翅膀。说白了就是钢材铝材价格便宜就多用点。因为钢材铝材怎么说都是 expendables 消耗品，人命不是 expendables。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
你不懂医学你懂常识，所以你认为两周后武汉肺炎的传播基本会稳定
哈佛的科学家懂医学也懂常识，所以他认为此病毒的传播速度是百年未见。
所以我应该信谁呢？
时间能证明啊
Bingbing是wangbing的小名？
这次不同于广州sars,当时全国医疗基础建设太差，不知道sars到底是什么东西
sars后，全国医疗基础建设完善了很多，而且这次武汉新病毒和sars有很多相同地方，只要控制很快就会稳定的
所以有句话叫做无知者无畏
我个人一直都是认为，时间会证明很多东西
包括很多人无知和愚昧
到2月 7，8号在来印证吧
抬头看ID，看看这ID发的贴就知道什么人了
中外资深专家独立做出的类似结论就被你的“常识”几句话否定，这是否合常识？
我觉得像。之前是另一个名字忘了。就是国内的反习势力上班了。我一直想知道他后面是谁。虽然没有常识，但可能有内幕消息。
什么内幕消息？有解药？
你这个垃圾，现在全国 90%的人都骂习，都是反习，你是不是近亲结婚的产物？
他不是哈佛科学家，也不是医生，他是健康经济学家，主要是公共健康建模统计学那套。
他没有获得任何医学学位，他的phd是营养学。
打你脸：Harvard Chan School of Public Health 是最好的公共卫生学院了，研究人群健康，这个就涵盖了疾病在群体传播。
“Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.”
他的博士学位是营养学和流行病，这人聪明很灵活喜欢抓热点，你要说是伪科学那也太过了。看到大家都在质疑你，我也放心了。哈佛营养流行病学的博士的确不是厉害国领导们在家随随便便做做耍耍嘴皮子到了年限就能拿的，也要有一定的智商和时间精力上巨大的付出。
看你这么说我就放心了，无毛平时不培训的吗，这样就暴露了
支持打脸六毛
你既不懂医学，也没有常识
之前的名字是ruiming4000
“ Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.”
R0 有time-varying的特点。
Jacob Alheid @shakefu 7h7 hours ago
Replying to @DrEricDing
who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf …SARS Initial R0 = 2.9, post-control = 0.4. Three different models showed R0 of approximately 3 in the absence of public health measures. Double check the numbers before getting everyone riled up, it hurts your credibility.
这个引用的是WHO的文献，引用了3篇文章的结果在26页。其中提到新加坡5个人感染了103个人，R0=20.6.
这个回复，说明Eric对文献不是那么熟。他也没有hedge他的结果，有点sensational news reporter的味道。一般来说R0开始高，如果后面有public health measures，会对后面R0有什么影响，以前文献肯定有，估计他没有花功夫查，就直接报了。
信仰和道德双重沦丧的人们是不会害怕的。无知无畏
五毛以为美国的经济学博士跟厉害国高中政治一样是文科靠死记硬背。
对了你们高中毕业没？
流行病学其实就是生物统计学延伸，研究的主题主要包括描述统计，推论统计，假设检验，相关的和预测性的技术问题。
他的领域其实是社会工作者，靠着生物统计曲线吓人。但是他的数据都是拼凑出来的，现在没有足够数据支持建模。
六毛文化水平低，人家当然不会像你们一样乱喷，依据你看不懂啊
能别胡说八道吗
+1
或者把瞒报的数据掺进新诊断的追上真实数据，这样加速度就被夸大了。
如果是真的太吓人了。
你伪人类吧
你怎么知道？
模型包括没
人又蠢又无知就别出来秀智商
R0=3.8 是什么意思
不建模靠你们这些五毛所谓的“常识”和拍脑子想么？
谨慎对待，宁可信其有
看起来背景很牛啊，流行病和营养学的双博士，Harvard最年轻的双博士。“He graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard. Teaching at Harvard for over 15 years, he has advised and mentored 2 dozen students, and lectured in more than a dozen graduate and undergraduate courses, for which he received the Derek Bok Distinction in Teaching Award from Harvard College.”
R0是一个描述疾病传染素的指数，数字越高代表传播速度越快
H1N1在2009年春季的数据是1.1，或1.5，用两种不同的计算方式，然后当时的致死率是千分之四。SARS的R0在中国境内报的是1.5，外媒估计2~3。本次SARI中国方报的~1.5，外媒估测3.8。致死率中国报的是3~4%，柳叶刀的文章估算15%。
如果R0是3.8，致死率是15%，那真的是相当，相当严重了。
哈哈哈，搞epi的人都要郁闷死了
R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It's a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It's also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.
对于一般每年出现的流感，这个数字大概是1，也就是说R0=1。这么一对比，你就知道3.8有多可怕了。
While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
这个是去年注册的五毛
re
re, 问题是这哥们不是tenured或者tenure-track
Re.
说的好像他们很厉害是的，他们说了多少次中国崩溃论了，用了多少例子了，然后呢？国外专家就是这样，满嘴放打炮，反正不用对自己言论负责，说中了，就名利双收，说不中，反正后来也没人关注里，有什么关系。香港那个也是，一个个就是神棍，哪像德国那个带检测药的科学家，说的多少中肯。你们 这些满嘴跑火车的专家，资料都是共享的，赶紧闷头做研究吧。你传染多少人是看人的，不是看天的
稳定是啥意思？不再🈶️新病例出现？还是新病例线性稳定增长而不是指数增长？
你的脸被打得还不够疼么？
十八线，医疗力量跟不上吧。比如一千人生病，医院招架得住么？
小队长，俺本来已经打算投靠中堂的靖难军，你这个牺牲100人的估计把我吓到了
冰冰属于反习势力，您呢，挺习的保皇党？
这哈佛访问学者挺会自我炒作的。
他们说了那么多年也没把中国说崩溃了，还是武汉政府牛X，只用一个月就把中国人都关屋里做到了。
他们不厉害难道还是那些巴巴到美国求学把人家的研究成果，研究方法，科研理念原样照搬回国复制照葫芦画瓢的徒子徒孙厉害？
武汉p4实验室的人员简历不知道有哪些经历
我之前早跟你说过了，我没有党派，就是一普通用脑子思考的群众，既不拥习也不反习。平心而论，人事皆如此。不信你可以去查一下，这里还大叫习大大的时候，我就批评过了。