https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent.
可以当作最差条件考虑。
PDF是全文
纯数据说话，文章的意思是已扩散所以效果并不好。
不乱串当然有用，总比交叉感染强。
想法得快都是这样的。
哪里得出的超过10%感染的结论？191,529 infections
难道武汉只有200万人？