Scientist who simulated the global impact of a coronavirus outbreak says ‘the cat’s already out of the bag’ and China’s efforts to contain the disease ‘unlikely to be effective’
Published: Jan 24, 2020 4:29 p.m. ET
Toner’s team ran a simulation of the impact of a hypothetical coronavirus that was vaccine resistant and easily transmittable
‘Probably, the cat’s already out of the bag.’Dr. Eric Toner
That is Dr. Eric Toner in an interview with CNBC on Friday explaining that China’s efforts to contain a fast-moving upper respiratory illness are “unlikely to be effective.” The scientist’s comments come as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case of coronavirus in the U.S. Cases of the illness, which is related to SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, have turned up in a number of countries outside of Wuhan City, China, where the illness originated. The number of infections has risen to at least 881, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing China’s state-run broadcaster China Central Television, On top of that, the official death toll has risen to 26 from 17 yesterday thus far. The Journal also reported that the outbreak was overwhelming China’s local-area resources and hospitals. Beijing has shut down parts of the Great Wall, as well as 16 cities, restricting movement of some 46 million people, and canceling events related to Lunar New Year, one of the busiest periods of travel and consumerism in the country. Toner is a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and was a part of a simulation, in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that such a disease could kill 65 million people. within 18 months. Coronaviruses, with SARS among that group, are infections of the respiratory tract that can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. Toner told Business insider during an interview that he hasn’t completed research on the current strain of Wuhan coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, but said that the death toll could run in the millions if the influenza were resistant to modern vaccines and was easy to catch as the common flu.
Professional Profile Dr. Toner is a Senior Scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a Senior Scientist in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health and Engineering. He is an internist and emergency physician. His primary areas of interest are healthcare preparedness for catastrophic events, pandemic influenza, and medical response to bioterrorism. He is Managing Editor of the online newsletter Clinicians’ BiosecurityNews and is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security (formerly Biosecurity and Bioterrorism), the leading peer-reviewed journal in this field. Dr. Toner has authored scores of scholarly papers and government reports on healthcare and pandemic preparedness, and he has organized numerous meetings of national leaders on the topics of hospital preparedness, pandemic influenza, emerging infectious diseases, mass casualty disasters, biosecurity, biosurveillance, and nuclear preparedness. He has spoken at many national and international conferences on a range of biosecurity topics and appeared on a number of high-profile national television and news features on pandemic flu and bioterrorism preparedness. He has been the principal investigator of several US government–funded projects to assess and advance healthcare preparedness. Dr. Toner has served on a number of national working groups and committees, including the Institute of Medicine’s Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events. Dr. Toner has been involved in hospital disaster planning since the mid-1980s. Prior to joining the Center, he was Medical Director of Disaster Preparedness at St. Joseph Medical Center in Towson, Maryland, where he practiced emergency medicine for 23 years. In 2003, he spearheaded the creation of a coalition of disaster preparedness personnel from the 5 Baltimore County hospitals, the health department, and the Office of Emergency Management. During this time, he also headed a large emergency medicine group practice and co-founded and managed a large primary care group practice and an independent urgent care center. Dr. Toner received his BA and MD degrees from the University of Virginia. He trained in internal medicine at the Medical College of Virginia.
没有这么悲观，他用了all extreme parameters所以才会基数这么大 which is his character, 时间一长，人类本身也会产生免疫力。不过疫苗从产生到Phase 1最快可达缩短至两三个月，phase 2又可以再扩大病人量，要到完全大生产是需要至少一年, 但那时候也许感染人数已经控制了，到phase 2就能大面积救人了
这个历时整整3年。。。 The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people around the world, including people on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic.
Published: Jan 24, 2020 4:29 p.m. ET
Toner’s team ran a simulation of the impact of a hypothetical coronavirus that was vaccine resistant and easily transmittable
That is Dr. Eric Toner in an interview with CNBC on Friday explaining that China’s efforts to contain a fast-moving upper respiratory illness are “unlikely to be effective.”
The scientist’s comments come as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a second case of coronavirus in the U.S.
Cases of the illness, which is related to SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, have turned up in a number of countries outside of Wuhan City, China, where the illness originated.
The number of infections has risen to at least 881, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing China’s state-run broadcaster China Central Television, On top of that, the official death toll has risen to 26 from 17 yesterday thus far. The Journal also reported that the outbreak was overwhelming China’s local-area resources and hospitals.
Beijing has shut down parts of the Great Wall, as well as 16 cities, restricting movement of some 46 million people, and canceling events related to Lunar New Year, one of the busiest periods of travel and consumerism in the country.
Toner is a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and was a part of a simulation, in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, that such a disease could kill 65 million people. within 18 months.
Coronaviruses, with SARS among that group, are infections of the respiratory tract that can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold.
Toner told Business insider during an interview that he hasn’t completed research on the current strain of Wuhan coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, but said that the death toll could run in the millions if the influenza were resistant to modern vaccines and was easy to catch as the common flu.
来源
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scientist-who-simulated-the-global-impact-of-a-coronavirus-outbreak-says-the-cats-already-out-of-the-bag-and-chinas-efforts-to-contain-the-disease-unlikely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24
看了下他的CV，不是这个行业的，不知道权威性高不高。
Professional Profile
Dr. Toner is a Senior Scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a Senior Scientist in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health and Engineering. He is an internist and emergency physician. His primary areas of interest are healthcare preparedness for catastrophic events, pandemic influenza, and medical response to bioterrorism. He is Managing Editor of the online newsletter Clinicians’ BiosecurityNews and is an Associate Editor of the journal Health Security (formerly Biosecurity and Bioterrorism), the leading peer-reviewed journal in this field.
Dr. Toner has authored scores of scholarly papers and government reports on healthcare and pandemic preparedness, and he has organized numerous meetings of national leaders on the topics of hospital preparedness, pandemic influenza, emerging infectious diseases, mass casualty disasters, biosecurity, biosurveillance, and nuclear preparedness. He has spoken at many national and international conferences on a range of biosecurity topics and appeared on a number of high-profile national television and news features on pandemic flu and bioterrorism preparedness. He has been the principal investigator of several US government–funded projects to assess and advance healthcare preparedness. Dr. Toner has served on a number of national working groups and committees, including the Institute of Medicine’s Forum on Medical and Public Health Preparedness for Catastrophic Events.
Dr. Toner has been involved in hospital disaster planning since the mid-1980s. Prior to joining the Center, he was Medical Director of Disaster Preparedness at St. Joseph Medical Center in Towson, Maryland, where he practiced emergency medicine for 23 years. In 2003, he spearheaded the creation of a coalition of disaster preparedness personnel from the 5 Baltimore County hospitals, the health department, and the Office of Emergency Management. During this time, he also headed a large emergency medicine group practice and co-founded and managed a large primary care group practice and an independent urgent care center.
Dr. Toner received his BA and MD degrees from the University of Virginia. He trained in internal medicine at the Medical College of Virginia.
就是不知道是不是一般的教授学者，还是很有知名度和权威性那种大拿。不想也不敢相信是后者。
是看不懂英文？白字黑子的写得多清楚。
人家就是专门干这个的
他的模型基于两个假设， 1， 没有有效疫苗，2，易传播。
但现实最糟糕的是，他这两个假设，目前都不是假设。而是现实。
我没有说不权威，我不是这个领域的。我是想确认下。我读到这个报道的时候后脊背都发凉。 我更想理解为他只是一个普通学者的一家之言。
嗯嗯很权威
病毒赶紧吧该灭的灭了吧 哎 人民受苦 独裁者享福 麻木不仁
楼主是说他自己不是这个专业的。
同问。不相信夏天还有
现在只能祈祷自愈能力了，以及病毒减弱。
是的，一个参数没假设对结果就可能相差很大。
而且前期跟海鲜市场有比较近距离的似乎也严重些，后面仅仅只是经过武汉的感染的似乎没那么严重。
对啊，不懂居然不信权威
早说了，要逃趁早
他知道有抗艾滋病毒的药有效吗？
是的
艾滋病早就不是什么大事了，Gilead sciences 已经有 Biktarvy 批准上市
那个层主说的是抗艾滋病毒的药对武汉肺炎有效。
大家可以看看这个视频，看了我觉得大概是我听到现在专家里最权威专业的
他的模型不是这次发生后建的，是几个月前的关于这类病毒的一个exercise,他一直就是做这个的
他提的建议我也觉得很中肯
Gilead sciences 另一个正在二期临床的药 Remdesivir （针对Ebola的）被NIH 专门点名认为会有效。Gilead sciences已经跟中国政府申请紧急临床试验应用。
你忘记南半球气候相反了吗？南北交替会一直传下去的
Mark 看看
这种建模只适合完全可控封闭环境，数据精确。预测疾病走向基本就是跳大神。
如果你不信加州今年8级地震，也没必要相信这个。
其实也有和此相反预测，只是不吸引眼球或者达不到某些人政治目的被过滤了。
他不是医生，对此病一窍不通，只是个会用统计方法的social worker，网上找点数据，往模型里套。