楼主的信息也不准确。到目前为止儿童死亡人数就是39。大人加上肯定更多 A total of 39 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season have been reported to CDC. 28 deaths were associated with influenza B viruses. Five of these had the lineage determined and all were B/Victoria viruses. 11 deaths were associated with influenza A viruses. Six of these had subtyping performed and all were A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses.
为啥说6600死了？ 我怎么看到的数字是 CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. squirrel40 发表于 1/22/2020 3:31:03 PM
Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza? Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm 不过现在说美国流感很无聊，我更关心武汉肺炎。。。
So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children
So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children
这个层主有查过cdc网页吗？ CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 13 million flu illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations and 6,600 deaths from flu.
你的理解也是错的
英文不是一般的烂
展开说说
美国自己报导的，到目前为止，2019-2020 flu season，120000住院了，6600死了，其中39个是小孩。。。
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-people-died-flu-year/story?id=67754182
楼主的6600也是错，楼主说是历史以来，实际是今冬而已
说得好，我面壁去
起码还真是6600死了，其他简直是胡说八道
你说的是2010到去年为止每年的总数的range，今年流感已经死了6600了，因为今年流感比往年都严重。。。
Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza? Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm 不过现在说美国流感很无聊，我更关心武汉肺炎。。。
楼主说“人家报告里写的是美国历史上因流感死了6600多人，有1千万住院病例，不是就今年”
你看看CDC的网页，过去10来年每年因流感死亡的人数在12k-61K 之间。
CDC说的是到去年的数据，这是今年的数据：
So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children
是啊。我觉得说数字总要说全年的么。否则没法比较啊。所以一年流感死亡几万人是很普遍的啊。一年4万人算。每天因为流感死掉的人都有100多。 非典一共死了7百多人吧。
是要非常警惕，严防死守。但是也不要散步恐慌，好像去个华人超市购物都是不得了事情。
楼主的原话： 人家报告里写的是美国历史上因流感死了6600多人，有1千万住院病例，不是就今年。
死亡率相差数量级。
你还不如拿流感和Ebola病毒比呢。
又是只看死亡数不看死亡率的
得差两个数量级吧
你的point是什么？没看懂。。。
国内报导的是一千多万被感染，10万住院，6600死亡，跟美国的报导一致，楼主自己胡说八道（把中国报导的被感染数说成是住院人数，把今年的小孩死亡人数说成是全部死亡人数），还说中国报导的是假新闻。。。
感觉楼主平时没有把流感当成是一件大事，不知道每年流感死的人也很多，而不是她以为的每年几十人。。。
要看普通随机个体因此病的致死几率？不要先预设你得了此病或者彼病这样的前提。经典概率问题。懂？
我的POINT的就是楼主哗众取宠，自己都没搞清楚状况。
要看普通随机个体因此病的致死几率，那也的看看什么样的人更可能因感冒致死，光看死亡数更没有用
大部分病都是老弱更容易致死吧。
但是对于公众健康整体而言，最基本的数据肯定是看普通随机个体因此病的致死几率。
最后死亡的直接原因和引发的原因不一样很正常。
比如艾滋病，本身根本不致死。最后导致死亡的原因各种都有。
包括各种癌症，最后死亡的直接原因很多都是呼吸系统衰竭或者并发症死亡。同样拿那个心肌梗塞做例子。一个有冠心病的人遇到车祸，因为紧张引发心肌梗塞导致死亡。把这个人算作车祸死亡算是合理的吧。
另外6600这个数据更是每天都在增加的。刚看了CDC数据，普通年份一年下来也有3-4万。
平均每天因为流感增加的死亡的也差不多100人。
所以对于死亡率高的传染病在流行期更要高度戒备，降低传染率，最终才能降低普通随机个体因此病的致死几率。看看各国政府和who对这个肺炎的反应就知道了，就是不能让它流行起来。这个时候拿普通流感比有啥意思，普通流感都这么多年了，每年差不多，该做的基本上也都做了，每年流行季前都号召打疫苗。
当然要高度戒备。毕竟再小的概率，落到个体也是百分之百。
只是也不要过于恐慌以至于影响生活。好像去个华人超市都要冒着生命危险似的。
即使真的如03年非典的情况，随机个体因此而死亡的统计概率比流感低了2个数量级都不止。
这个层主有查过cdc网页吗？
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 13 million flu illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations and 6,600 deaths from flu.