Hong Kong’s Gravity-Defying Property Market Can’t Walk on Air Forever The city’s commercial property market is already hurting from the months of unrest. The housing market will follow. [url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-gravity-defying-property-market-cant-walk-on-air-forever-11573460415]https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-gravity-defying-property-market-cant-walk-on-air-forever-11573460415[/url]
In his pursuit of the Road Runner, Wile E. Coyote occasionally finds himself running on air, having unknowingly sprinted off the edge of a sheer cliff.
[url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-property-tycoons-face-a-political-typhoon-11570182165?mod=article_inline]Hong Kong’s property market[/url] is now in a similar situation after five months of [url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-may-regret-believing-hong-kongs-crisis-is-over-11567594763?mod=article_inline]mass protests[/url] that have taken a heavy toll on the city’s economy. And should the housing market stumble, the de facto central bank’s ability to support it might be exceedingly limited.
At first glance, you would barely notice there was a problem. Housing prices were down just 2.3% year-over-year in September, a smaller decline than was recorded during the 2015-16 slowdown in the Chinese economy. Transactions actually rose in October as the government relaxed mortgage caps for first-time buyers. Sector stocks still sport small gains for the year.
That’s a contrast to the economic data: Hong Kong is in a recession for the first time in a decade. Business activity declined at the fastest pace in at least two decades in October, according to the city’s purchasing manager’s index. Though headline data don’t show much impact on the housing market yet, the damage is becoming apparent in the commercial property sector.
In October, local property agency [url=https://quotes.wsj.com/HK/XHKG/459]Midland IC&I[/url] Ltd. recorded 242 registrations of commercial and industrial premises, the second-lowest figure since 1996. Real-estate agency Savills suggested that rents for stores in prime locations and shopping centers have fallen by more than 15% in the year to September across the territory. Far fewer commercial real-estate buildings are owner-occupied relative to the residential market, which makes the sector more sensitive to immediate economic conditions, translating quickly into falling rents.
But the residential market can’t help but follow. Apartment rents and property demand may lag the collapse in business activity, but they can’t remain separate forever. Researchers at brokerage CLSA note that the property sector offers a lower dividend yield premium relative to U.S. government bonds than in the first quarter of 2016—the housing market’s previous trough. They suggest the sector’s stocks could fall at least 10%, and property prices could plunge 20%. In many economies, local central banks would slash interest rates to help avert a residential market slump. But in Hong Kong, monetary policy is largely dictated by the need to sustain the Hong Kong dollar’s peg against the U.S. dollar. The city can’t rely on the Federal Reserve to act in its interests.
Hong Kong’s house prices were already extremely expensive, running at about an eye-watering 20 times average income in late 2018. That makes the city more than twice as expensive as other famously pricey housing markets like London and San Francisco. Unless the protest movement ends peacefully and quickly—something that looks exceedingly unlikely—gravity is bound to catch up with the city’s property market.
有两次吗？97一次，还有一次是啥时候？？
着外资也可以在美国买阿里巴巴股票呀， 为什么要去香港买。
理论上当然可以啊。。
但一般愿意在香港买股票的外资，会更关注中国市场，所以更能了解阿里的运作和实力，也更能给阿里高估值。。。。
而中国企业在美上市，很多得不到足够的coverage，关注度不够，交易不够活跃，估值也较低。。
这是一个买卖双方自我选择的过程。。。
所以阿里当初第一选择是香港，香港自己搭架子，没谈下来才去美国。。
结合这次香港来说。。。香港无非就是提供了买卖双方一个比较低成本的交易平台。。
只要买卖双方都有意愿进行交易，只要外资还想投资中资企业赚钱，那么即使没有香港，也会有其它渠道帮他们促成交易。。
绝大多数国家都没有类似香港这么一个完全西方化的窗口，但这并不代表国际投资者就无法投资日本/韩国/印度/巴西等地区市场了。。
以前没行，这次怕也是不行。不过，我强烈怀疑LZ的说法。。现在中央的态度明显就是：香港愿意满地打滚，就继续打滚好了，是弄一身泥巴还是一脸屎根本不CARE，中国大陆这边该忙啥忙啥，有空就看瞅一眼，没空当作没看见。如果是真的，应当早动手了
有香港baba作为估值参考后，美股这里应该是利好。。
我看三立新闻说好像夏天的时候8月份吧？具体时间记不错清楚了
阿里巴巴在港股完全受中国政府监管 美股的阿里巴巴要受美国政府监管
Hong Kong’s Gravity-Defying Property Market Can’t Walk on Air Forever
The city’s commercial property market is already hurting from the months of unrest. The housing market will follow.
[url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-gravity-defying-property-market-cant-walk-on-air-forever-11573460415]https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-gravity-defying-property-market-cant-walk-on-air-forever-11573460415[/url]
In his pursuit of the Road Runner, Wile E. Coyote occasionally finds himself running on air, having unknowingly sprinted off the edge of a sheer cliff.
[url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-property-tycoons-face-a-political-typhoon-11570182165?mod=article_inline]Hong Kong’s property market[/url] is now in a similar situation after five months of [url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-may-regret-believing-hong-kongs-crisis-is-over-11567594763?mod=article_inline]mass protests[/url] that have taken a heavy toll on the city’s economy. And should the housing market stumble, the de facto central bank’s ability to support it might be exceedingly limited.
At first glance, you would barely notice there was a problem. Housing prices were down just 2.3% year-over-year in September, a smaller decline than was recorded during the 2015-16 slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Transactions actually rose in October as the government relaxed mortgage caps for first-time buyers. Sector stocks still sport small gains for the year.
That’s a contrast to the economic data: Hong Kong is in a recession for the first time in a decade. Business activity declined at the fastest pace in at least two decades in October, according to the city’s purchasing manager’s index.
Though headline data don’t show much impact on the housing market yet, the damage is becoming apparent in the commercial property sector.
In October, local property agency [url=https://quotes.wsj.com/HK/XHKG/459]Midland IC&I[/url] Ltd. recorded 242 registrations of commercial and industrial premises, the second-lowest figure since 1996. Real-estate agency Savills suggested that rents for stores in prime locations and shopping centers have fallen by more than 15% in the year to September across the territory.
Far fewer commercial real-estate buildings are owner-occupied relative to the residential market, which makes the sector more sensitive to immediate economic conditions, translating quickly into falling rents.
But the residential market can’t help but follow. Apartment rents and property demand may lag the collapse in business activity, but they can’t remain separate forever. Researchers at brokerage CLSA note that the property sector offers a lower dividend yield premium relative to U.S. government bonds than in the first quarter of 2016—the housing market’s previous trough. They suggest the sector’s stocks could fall at least 10%, and property prices could plunge 20%.
In many economies, local central banks would slash interest rates to help avert a residential market slump. But in Hong Kong, monetary policy is largely dictated by the need to sustain the Hong Kong dollar’s peg against the U.S. dollar. The city can’t rely on the Federal Reserve to act in its interests.
Hong Kong’s house prices were already extremely expensive, running at about an eye-watering 20 times average income in late 2018. That makes the city more than twice as expensive as other famously pricey housing markets like London and San Francisco.
Unless the protest movement ends peacefully and quickly—something that looks exceedingly unlikely—gravity is bound to catch up with the city’s property market.
受美国政府监管的仅仅是具体上市企业在信息披露/审计上的要求而已。。每个证交所都有自己的一套要求，很正常。。
但作为企业，阿里业务在中国，肯定受中国政府监管。。。
甚至从法律上说，中国科技企业在美上市都是VIE结构，多了一层法律上的风险。。
还是那句话，西方投资者想投资的是阿里这个企业，和阿里在哪上市没太大关系。。。
香港无非就是个中介而已，香港哪怕再烧个几年，对在香港上市那些企业的营收都没影响。。。
这个在哪里上市都一样啊
中国国家统计局今日数据显示，10月工业、零售及固定资产成长皆放缓并低于预期，尤其是固定资产投资在今年前10个月的增幅减缓至5.2%，是1998年来最慢。而经济学家认为，中国经济疲态还没见底，恐进一步下滑。
《彭博》报导引述凯投宏观（Capital Economics）中国区经济学家拉斯穆森（Martin L. Rasmussen），他表示中国经济还不到最糟，因为除了数据不好，监管当局正在收紧房地产区块的融资，该领域应会再降温。
汇丰控股的经济学家王然（Julia Wang）则说，制造业这1年半来的下滑是中国近几十年最严重的。最新数据的关键结论是「中国经济还未稳定」，成长力道仍属放缓。她担心这种放缓会持续到2020年的就业市场，进而损害消费者支出。她认为消费者支出现在还有支撑，但零售数据显示状况其实不佳。
澳盛银行（ANZ）大中华区首席经济学家杨宇霆亦表示，这些数字证实了中国工业正在衰退，考虑到经济增长是有国内因素拖累，他认为美中达成贸易协议也不会改变现况。
关键甲方不信任乙方，不放心把钱给乙方，有个中介担保才可靠。
中介担保？你真心想太多。。
香港担保啥了？怎么担保？
今天外资买腾讯，结果腾讯新的手游被政府禁止发行，香港是准备替腾讯赔钱？
有这可能么？
开啥玩笑。。。
神烦这老头 活该他这次再载在香港 ---发自Huaren 官方 iOS APP
一般正常情况下，打砸半年，做空当地股市肯定赚，香港特例，土共的维稳水平太他妈的赞了。做空的现在很着急，前方给废青砸钱，背后还要亏一大笔，里外不是人，这生意做的一塌糊涂。
中国在美上市公司借口中国法律限制规避sec审查 国会现在还在找中国公司的麻烦各种限制投资中概股 阿里搬香港上市纯粹是规避风险 为可能的退市留条后路
香港又不是正常情况。。香港股市大头根本不是香港自己的企业，或者说香港股市上那些企业的业绩和香港本土经济没啥关系。。。
说难听点，哪怕丢香港一个原子弹，香港股市也不会有太大影响，就是一个中介平台。。。
Re， 明显的要跑路离开美国股市。但香港现在这样鬼都不幸它一个阿里能把大势给扭过来。等着空军大获全胜吧！