No common sense at all. Think about historically, which major seaport city in the world can be independent from mainland anywhere? The only one I can name is Singapore, but everyone knows how this happened.
No common sense at all. Think about historically, which major seaport city in the world can be independent from mainland anywhere? The only one I can name is Singapore, but everyone knows how this happened. sunychen23 发表于 10/9/2019 1:53:10 PM
Could Hong Kong Become Another Estonia? The independence of the Baltic states also seemed unthinkable — until it became reality Estonia and the other Baltic states, Latvia and Lithuania, achieved what most observers deemed impossible. Not only did they break from Kremlin domination in 1988-1991, but they survived and soon became integrated into both NATO and the European Union. Could Hong Kong follow this example — not only depart from Beijing’s rule but survive and prosper on the world stage? Most experts say no, but they could be wrong.
Hong Kong today is much stronger economically than any of the Baltic states in the 1980s. The economies of each Baltic republic were controlled from Moscow. None was self-sufficient; each was deeply interdependent with the rest of the USSR. None produced goods or services that met western European standards.
In contrast to the Baltic states, Hong Kong is an entrepot between China and the world. This role might weaken if Hong Kong became independent but both parties would continue to need each other. Political differences do not keep Singapore and Taiwan from intense commercial ties with China. Western businesses would feel more secure investing in an independent, law-respecting Hong Kong.
Is Hong Kong too small to function as a city-state? No. Hong Kong has more than 7.4 million people — many times the 1.3 million of Estonia. Indeed, Hong Kong’s population exceeds that of all three Baltic republics combined. Taiwan is three times larger with 24 million people, but Singapore’s population is just 5.6 million.
Hong Kong’s territory covers only 1,104 square kilometers of land, while each Baltic republic (as well as Taiwan) has at least 40 times the territory. Yet Singapore thrives even though its land mass now covers only 722 sq km. In previous centuries, Hanseatic League city-states such as Hamburg, Gdansk, Riga, and Dorpat (Tartu) prospered as independent republics governed by mercantile elites.
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Why should Hong Kongers want to be independent? Most are ethnically Chinese, but their identities — as in Taiwan and Singapore — have become different from those of mainland Chinese. Most Hong Kongers grow up speaking Cantonese and resent pressures to use Mandarin. They write and read using traditional Chinese characters rather than the simplified script imposed by Beijing. A large percentage is fluent in English. All enjoy free access to the internet and other media, linking them to ideas and facts not available to most Chinese. A survey in 2016 showed that nearly 40 percent of Hong Kongers aged 15 to 24 wanted independence along with 17.4 percent of Hong Kongers overall, but that only 3.6 percent believed it possible. Recent allegations of police brutality against protesters probably boosted pro-independence sentiments though there is also wide revulsion at the forced entry into the Legislative Council by radical protesters.
How Great Britain seized Hong Kong in the mid-19th century was disgraceful, but its colonizers imparted a legacy of law, education, and fair play that differs sharply from the top-down ways of Communist China. Some people hoped that Hong Kong’s liberal values might modify Communist Party rule. Under President Xi Jinping, however, China is becoming a technocratic version of Mao Zedong’s totalitarian dictatorship.
How did David defeat Goliath in the Baltic? Worn down by eight years in Afghanistan, the Kremlin’s imperial will weakened in the 1980s. Exploiting Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost programs, non-communist cultural figures such as Lennart Meri in Estonia and Vytautas Landsbergis in Lithuania helped organize a nonviolent “Singing Revolution.” Huge crowds marched in the streets and sang native songs. The Popular Fronts demanded that Moscow honor the Soviet constitution provision granting each republic the right to self-determination. They asserted that Baltic republic laws trumped dictates made in Moscow. Soviet military units based in the Baltic attacked demonstrators just once, in Vilnius, killing fewer than 20. Soon the Soviet legislature recognized that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were self-governing and no longer belonged to the USSR. Other Soviet republics adopted Baltic tactics. In December 1991 the USSR collapsed and all 15 union-republics became independent.
Meanwhile, Chinese leaders in June 1989 faced strong demands for democracy by demonstrators in Tiananmen Square. Having deliberated, the regime proceeded to kill between one and two thousand demonstrators. Surely Beijing authorities today are determined to preserve “stability,” but such large-scale blood-letting may no longer be a viable option.
China is now stronger in most ways than the USSR in the Gorbachev era, but it stands on feet of clay. Labor unrest and ethnic-cultural dissent flare widely. Intellectuals and some businesspeople are demanding more freedom. Discontent at Han intrusions is growing among Tibetans, Kazakhs, Uyghurs, and Mongolians. Air pollution is increasingly causing public anger, as are shortages of clean water.
If such problems multiply and Hong Kongers remain persistent, they might catch the Estonian dream — not today, but perhaps in a decade. But nothing is pre-determined They will need widely respected leaders like Estonia’s Lennart Meri plus what is now lacking — a Chinese Gorbachev.
Walter Clemens is an Associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He wrote Baltic Independence and Russian Empire (1991) and The Baltic Transformed (2001). He is Book Review Editor at the journal Asian Perspective.
其次是军事基础。香港可以在宣布独立的同时宣布香港进入紧急状态，美日军队在一小时内进驻，同时香港开放深水港给美军航母做停靠港，甚至可以划出一片区域来给美军做军事基地。
第三是生活物资。总有人说香港独立后就会被断水断粮。这时候港府1万多亿的储备足以保证香港人民几年的口粮。接下来香港人民对内发挥艰苦奋斗的狮子山精神，对外和东南亚各国积极外交，必将能够克服暂时的困难。
最后也是最重要的一点，那就是因为香港独立必将会造成中国和国际主流社会的激烈摩擦导致中国被全人类抵制，独立后的香港国又能重新做回联系中国和文明社会的窗口，必将重现上世纪60-90年代的30年繁荣。
团结勇敢的香港人民，加油！阳光总在风雨后！
美日联军1小时内进驻，tg敢打也是投鼠忌器。
你不妨问问，美军和日军敢进驻香港吗？他们连这样说都不敢。
做白日梦就自己好好在家做，别出来丢人现眼。
香港700万全民武装人在前，美日军在后，tg敢贸然出兵怕也是损失惨重。更不用提造成的人道主义灾难以及面临的全人类谴责。为了一个香港搞死国内八成的涉外企业，tg也知道孰轻孰重。
美日敢进HK，都不用动导弹，大炮都能把他们和平了。你以为建设了70多年的大炮兵吃素的。现在别说是HK，真要是打TW，美日都不敢帮忙。一点军事知识没有就乱抖。
真的这么简单，1980年代，中国比现在还弱，英国就强行不归还 或者 联合美日 支持香港独立。当时英国部队就驻扎在香港，岂不是更容易。当时不敢，几十年后又敢了？
就问你日本有军队么？
tg开枪就是宣布和全人类发动全面战争，tg高层在国外的小金库都化为乌有，你以为他们敢动？
那时候中国光脚不怕穿鞋，欧美也需要中国来制衡苏联。现在时代不同了。
问个技术问题，既然这么有把握，TG为啥不早日打下台湾完成祖国统一大业？就会整天瞎吹？
你这种和国内号召东风快递的狂热民族主义分子有啥区别。
美国经济和中国脱钩以后为啥不敢
Everyone will know how this happen again in HK
1，有历史道义问题，同胞手足相残，历史评价不好。 现代文明社会，在对方没有挑衅情形下，主动动武，如果再造成很多平民老百姓伤亡，不妥。
2， 当前TG的首要任务是 中华民族复兴，争取在2035-2050左右实现。 这个是关系到全体中华儿女根本利益的大局，其他的可以适当拖一拖。
TG连个小岛（大担岛，远小于金门）都打不下来
当前TG的首要任务就是保住习大大的皇位吧？
淡水有船湾淡水湖，还有已经成熟的海水淡化技术。现在没有roll out是因为有更便宜的东江水。
领空可以交给美日代管。
民生的事情勒紧裤腰带奋斗几年可以克服，新的香港政府也可以和越南等国签订合作协议进口粮食。
傻叉
第一声总要有人来发，星星之火可以燎原。
別的國家會派軍隊來？越戰的教訓還不夠？
第一声总要有人来发，星星之火可以燎原。
苏联在越南的利益多，还是欧美在香港的利益多？
加油，汽油弹已燃起，别在街上乱扔，砸到街坊邻居不太好的。 ---发自Huaren 官方 iOS APP
港人独立的心早已有之，只是现在时机还不成熟。历史上这种常年积累的民意突然大面积爆发的事情也不少。
有一个先例：东帝汶
印尼没倒台东帝汶也独立了
需要 出个像 李光耀 这种级别的人物才行。
关键是打了，中共高层，楼市和股市里的几万亿资本，怎么套出来
我觉得领导人恨死要打的那些粉红了
习家里，随便一个人香港就几亿的房产，这些还是直接可查的，借着白手套肖建华那样的，还有多少，谁也不知道
所以他们比美国人日本人，更担心香港，更不喜欢发生暴乱
我刚也想说东帝汶
是的。打香港就要损失tg统治阶级家族的万亿资产，最后肯定是不打的。对内随便宣传下就好了。反正人民跟党走。
不脱离tg全面倒向西方独立建国哪来的民主自由？
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.14.05
我又不是香港人，关我啥事？
烏東、克裡米亞都不要了?
再說，美國臺灣都要保不住了。東風系列是吃素的?
那你们就再也没有资格标榜自由民主还占领道德高点了啊 也没有资格说墙内的人被洗脑 说明明香港人追求民主 却被土工说成要独立了啊
而且啊你们正式亮剑的话恐怕再也没有第二个莫雷了啊 ---发自Huaren 官方 iOS APP
不知道有民兵快递？
领空交给别人代管，这还没独立呢就惦记着当港奸，了解一下什么独立国家会把领空交给别人先，别出来丢人了
欧洲那些小国的领空不都是周边国家代管的？卢森堡圣马力诺列支敦士登不是独立国家？
不同货币、不同司法制度、不同护照，本来就更像是两个国家吧？
The independence of the Baltic states also seemed unthinkable — until it became reality
Estonia and the other Baltic states, Latvia and Lithuania, achieved what most observers deemed impossible. Not only did they break from Kremlin domination in 1988-1991, but they survived and soon became integrated into both NATO and the European Union. Could Hong Kong follow this example — not only depart from Beijing’s rule but survive and prosper on the world stage? Most experts say no, but they could be wrong.
Hong Kong today is much stronger economically than any of the Baltic states in the 1980s. The economies of each Baltic republic were controlled from Moscow. None was self-sufficient; each was deeply interdependent with the rest of the USSR. None produced goods or services that met western European standards.
In contrast to the Baltic states, Hong Kong is an entrepot between China and the world. This role might weaken if Hong Kong became independent but both parties would continue to need each other. Political differences do not keep Singapore and Taiwan from intense commercial ties with China. Western businesses would feel more secure investing in an independent, law-respecting Hong Kong.
Is Hong Kong too small to function as a city-state? No. Hong Kong has more than 7.4 million people — many times the 1.3 million of Estonia. Indeed, Hong Kong’s population exceeds that of all three Baltic republics combined. Taiwan is three times larger with 24 million people, but Singapore’s population is just 5.6 million.
Hong Kong’s territory covers only 1,104 square kilometers of land, while each Baltic republic (as well as Taiwan) has at least 40 times the territory. Yet Singapore thrives even though its land mass now covers only 722 sq km. In previous centuries, Hanseatic League city-states such as Hamburg, Gdansk, Riga, and Dorpat (Tartu) prospered as independent republics governed by mercantile elites.
Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.
Why should Hong Kongers want to be independent? Most are ethnically Chinese, but their identities — as in Taiwan and Singapore — have become different from those of mainland Chinese. Most Hong Kongers grow up speaking Cantonese and resent pressures to use Mandarin. They write and read using traditional Chinese characters rather than the simplified script imposed by Beijing. A large percentage is fluent in English. All enjoy free access to the internet and other media, linking them to ideas and facts not available to most Chinese. A survey in 2016 showed that nearly 40 percent of Hong Kongers aged 15 to 24 wanted independence along with 17.4 percent of Hong Kongers overall, but that only 3.6 percent believed it possible. Recent allegations of police brutality against protesters probably boosted pro-independence sentiments though there is also wide revulsion at the forced entry into the Legislative Council by radical protesters.
How Great Britain seized Hong Kong in the mid-19th century was disgraceful, but its colonizers imparted a legacy of law, education, and fair play that differs sharply from the top-down ways of Communist China. Some people hoped that Hong Kong’s liberal values might modify Communist Party rule. Under President Xi Jinping, however, China is becoming a technocratic version of Mao Zedong’s totalitarian dictatorship.
How did David defeat Goliath in the Baltic? Worn down by eight years in Afghanistan, the Kremlin’s imperial will weakened in the 1980s. Exploiting Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika and glasnost programs, non-communist cultural figures such as Lennart Meri in Estonia and Vytautas Landsbergis in Lithuania helped organize a nonviolent “Singing Revolution.” Huge crowds marched in the streets and sang native songs. The Popular Fronts demanded that Moscow honor the Soviet constitution provision granting each republic the right to self-determination. They asserted that Baltic republic laws trumped dictates made in Moscow. Soviet military units based in the Baltic attacked demonstrators just once, in Vilnius, killing fewer than 20. Soon the Soviet legislature recognized that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were self-governing and no longer belonged to the USSR. Other Soviet republics adopted Baltic tactics. In December 1991 the USSR collapsed and all 15 union-republics became independent.
Meanwhile, Chinese leaders in June 1989 faced strong demands for democracy by demonstrators in Tiananmen Square. Having deliberated, the regime proceeded to kill between one and two thousand demonstrators. Surely Beijing authorities today are determined to preserve “stability,” but such large-scale blood-letting may no longer be a viable option.
China is now stronger in most ways than the USSR in the Gorbachev era, but it stands on feet of clay. Labor unrest and ethnic-cultural dissent flare widely. Intellectuals and some businesspeople are demanding more freedom. Discontent at Han intrusions is growing among Tibetans, Kazakhs, Uyghurs, and Mongolians. Air pollution is increasingly causing public anger, as are shortages of clean water.
If such problems multiply and Hong Kongers remain persistent, they might catch the Estonian dream — not today, but perhaps in a decade. But nothing is pre-determined They will need widely respected leaders like Estonia’s Lennart Meri plus what is now lacking — a Chinese Gorbachev.
Walter Clemens is an Associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He wrote Baltic Independence and Russian Empire (1991) and The Baltic Transformed (2001). He is Book Review Editor at the journal Asian Perspective.
https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/could-hong-kong-become-another-estonia/
700万人的香港至少要有10万军队，可以威慑大陆。
2000万人的台湾有20万常备军，TG就不敢打。
---发自Huaren 官方 iOS APP
现在游行的100万人，只要其中十分之一去土耳其中东等地接受系统的训练，能极大的震慑tg的部队。
独立建国，是一代香港人共同的梦想。
独立建国，是一代香港人共同的梦想。
据说1万多亿的储备都是空架子，里面已经被一代二代三代们掏空了。
台湾20万草莓兵TG根本就不放在眼里，TG是顾虑第二岛链的美军，如何能在第一岛链拒止
藏独的维子也是这么想的，去土耳其认爹，被土耳其扔在叙利亚做炮灰
相当睿智的想法，批准执行。
但是在现在国内的政府的傻逼操作下基本不可能了
无解
发这种言论的帖，这个网站还不封？还不曝光这个楼主的 IP ？ ？这个网站差不到要轮为“大纪元” 了
广东福建都不要了？
你是在说反话吗？
我都一时搞不懂了。
发这种言论的ID，这个网站还不封？还不曝光这个层主的 IP ？
还不人肉出来报告FBI ？美国差不到要沦为中国的殖民地了！
自己看照片：
美国不了解。日本是绝对不敢 麻烦去多了解一下再来说这种话
西方真的为香港人的民主利益而支持香港独立？不过就是要恶心中国政府的一个手段。
这也叫独立？
都2020年了还搞长春围城？出了人道主义灾难，tg要被全人类天谴的。
过渡时期有驻军可以接受。何况圣马力诺、列支敦士登等国有没有军队？不都是靠信得过的大国来协防？
点赞！道出了香港人民的心声！
别傻了。香港的主流民意就是最终独立。都独立了还管你大陆？
香港新政府的内阁雏形已经有了啊，就是那帮热血志士、有志青年。
且不说吃喝水电都靠着大陆
香港本身就是靠插管吸血大陆的暴发城市
要工业没工业，要制造没制造，要农业没农业，要科技，港人那智商，根本就没有任何科技，
就是靠大陆转口贸易，大陆转口金融
没有大陆依托，香港什么都没有
独立了干什么？
乌克兰穷了还能世界去卖
香港独立了贫困了，男女这么丑，卖都没人要。
和美日签订合作防守协议即可。
问题是香港要是被内地同化了，香港的优势何在？
和内地区分开来，全面头像西方，再次作为整个中国大陆通向西方世界的窗口，才是香港的出路。