Politics ‘Risks still too big’ for China to send in troops to quell Hong Kong unrest
Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’ SCMP Jun Mai
Nectar Gan
Published: 7:00am, 15 Aug, 2019
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: HandoutFootage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics. But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.
A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence. She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.
She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.
“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said. It comes after massive anti-government protests at Hong Kong International Airport brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources, tweeted that the Chinese government was moving troops to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”. Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted. “As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”
He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement. Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.
Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed. “There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States. “If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”
Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.
“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.
While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily. “National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said. “It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”
[twitter]1162064629432033280[/twitter]
5 毛的口气真大。你党妈都不敢这么说。
89年的时候“改革开放”还是国策，现在呢？不要这么刻舟求剑
体量大，有时候更是问题所在。经不起大震动。 你茅草房可以轻松抗8级地震， 高楼大厦能？
这次要是崩溃，大陆也不救。反正对香港多好，人都不感激。
大陆实在不值得继续对香港好。
那就放手吧，让香港自生自灭吧！
意思就是说贸易战就是随手玩玩，美国如果真想的话，有厉害的多的方法对付中国？
那川总不是渎职么？有好办法对付中国为啥不早用？
想要做洋奴就直说。这么多想当汉奸的。丢人。
也不想想，英国现在多穷。
请问大陆到底对香港好在哪里？香港要是崩盘，大陆就会崛起吗？
“香港要是崩盘，大陆就会崛起吗？”，谁知道呢，未必吧。
比这个问题更有意思的问题是，您咋就无缘无故这么问呢？楼上的贴子里没这意思吧。
不知道美国有啥手段啊，难道空降一个师到香港？ 还是派个航母去香港？
习大大那么要面子的人，川普建议他往东，他定会往西。
派兵不是唯一打死香港的牌，天朝还可以收回港币发行权纳入央行管辖，可以取消香港特殊行政区护照，彻底纳入天朝户籍管理系统中，香港警察的录取培训提拔需有中国公安部监督管理，等等
港人会不服，不服，那就要上街，上街，拒绝批准，那就非法游行，然后给警察理由武力镇压，警民矛盾无法处理，内地武警入港协助，等等等等
天朝卡死了国内舆情，把香港变成新疆一样，no way out.
香港只比新疆多一点国际舆论的帮助，但国际舆论能帮到它多少呢？
川普很可能还觉得倒掉的香港，对他的贸易战，还更有帮助。
香港的生机，大陆开放的生机，都在天朝手里，但是，关键的问题是现在这么骄傲的天朝这么多狂妄的粉红，谁会在乎呢？
大陆真金白银97年救市。什么资源都香港优先。
得，以后啥资源都不要给香港，啥危机都不救，让香港慢慢作死吧。
大陆早就崛起了。一线城市的光鲜亮丽，比破破烂烂的香港好太多。
大陆以后不带香港玩就行了。把资源投到别的地方。
张嘴就来显然含赵量不足。 你知道你赵家一年外汇有多少过香港？私家钱有多少在香港或者通过香港洗出去？
--发自Huaren官方APP
充满自信。
要挑战世界，一洗过去历史的耻辱。
收拾不了香港，还怎么挑战西方文明，建立社会共同体？
这种狂妄的自信，咱们可以在习大大身上看到，天朝舆情上看到，版上的小粉红身上看到
香港是首当其冲的受害者，而我们这些海华也逃不掉。
宁枉勿纵，一个也不准离开，这就是粉红们的回答
97/98那次救香港还是救自己？ 还有什么？几十年恩情上台面的不是就凑出来这一桩吧
--发自Huaren官方APP
先问问穷英国有没有能力救吧。
真是白眼狼。
因为有香港这个buffer zone才让大陆逃过了金融危机，两者相辅相成
听过今时不同往日吗？
过去土共还在走运，现在习包子修宪后提前把土共领到终结。
一个ID的回答就成了“。。。们”的回答了？原来如此，所以香港游行中有人使用暴力，就等于“香港人们”都是暴徒？可以理解，您以前就喜欢这么用“们”字来给别人扣帽子泼脏水。
哦，可能算上您，俩，这可以称“粉红们”了？也勉强吧。。。
有没有博尔顿的口气大呀？
“美国是锤子，全世界都是钉子。” --- 博尔顿
谁吃饱了撑的要挑战世界。
中国一向喜欢闷声发大财。所以现在很富裕。
看看英国美国欧洲现在穷的修路修地铁都没钱。
真好意思。
还不用这么悲哀吧。包子已经派外交口的杨姓高官去DC了，会见了国务卿。
他去干吗？
联系一下川普的昨天和今天的N个推文。
违反版规5，版主封不封？
当年也曾经为越南和伊拉克流血流汗。
不过我目测川普不会像小布什一样干赔本买卖。
又是一个不看新闻两耳不闻窗外事，真好意思http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/xxjxs/2019-05/07/c_1124463051.htm
英国穷的连地铁都没空调。丢人啊。
违反版规5，版主封不封？
实事求是的讲，当时救的是港币，但是实际是为了中国经济。不救的话，整个亚洲和中国都会经济危机的。香港不过是中国政府和soros交战的前线而已。你们这些廊坊id，出来写文章建议先做研究，否则一篇挣不到5毛。
川普明显是给习大大挖坑哪.....
那几个推文，把美国和国际舆情控制住了啊
当年动用了多少外汇储备。幸亏中国政府还有钱。
英国当时有钱都不会救香港。
我见到“版主1”已经被封了。。。
人民币浮动汇率是2005年才开始。
97年打击香港根本打击不到大陆。
事实都不看，丢人。
没有空调是因为穷？你的脑子只是装饰品？
这都是对中国专家、学者、教授、智库的采访，他们说香港不重要？网评员们的见解高于这些人，是吗？如果网评员这么牛，怎么进不了智库，进不了大媒体做编辑，只能在网上发帖子赚钢镚？
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3022788/risks-still-too-big-china-send-troops-quell-hong-kong-unrest
Politics
‘Risks still too big’ for China to send in troops to quell Hong Kong unrest
Chinese government advisers say Beijing has not reached direct intervention point but that could change if the violence continues
Military action would trigger international backlash, observers say, as US expresses concern over reported paramilitary movements and ‘erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy’
SCMP
Jun Mai
Nectar Gan
Published: 7:00am, 15 Aug, 2019
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: HandoutFootage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police in Shenzhen has circulated online. Photo: Handout
The unrest in Hong Kong does not yet warrant direct intervention by Beijing despite hardening public sentiment and calls for tougher action in mainland China, according to Chinese government advisers.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University and an adviser to the State Council – China’s cabinet – said China would risk damaging its ties with the United States and other major foreign powers, upsetting its own development and losing Hong Kong’s special status if it took the matter directly into its hands.
“I don’t think we need to use troops. Hong Kong police will gradually escalate their action and they haven’t exhausted their means,” Shi said, expressing a view shared by other mainland government advisers and academics.
But he warned that if the violence and chaos continued, it “won’t be too far away from reaching that point”.
A US State Department spokeswoman said the United States was “deeply concerned” about reports of paramilitary movements along the Hong Kong border and reiterated a US call for all sides to refrain from violence.
She said it was important for the Hong Kong government to respect “freedoms of speech and peaceful assembly” and for Beijing to adhere to its commitments to allow a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong.
She said the protests reflected “broad and legitimate concerns about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy”.
“The continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy puts at risk its long-established special status in international affairs,” she said.
It comes after massive anti-government protests at Hong Kong International Airport brought the city’s air traffic to a halt and triggered a huge backlash on the mainland, where the public feel they have been wrongly targeted by the increasingly violent protesters. Many demanded the central government take action to end the chaos.
The tension deepened after US President Donald Trump, citing intelligence sources, tweeted that the Chinese government was moving troops to the border with Hong Kong. Trump described the situation in the city as “tricky” and called on all sides to remain “calm and safe”.
Footage of trucks from the paramilitary People’s Armed Police rolling into Shenzhen began circulating online on Saturday.
But Shi and others said direct intervention would be too costly to China and would only be used when all other methods had been exhausted.
“As the trade war with the US goes on, Hong Kong’s importance to our financial system is getting bigger,” Shi said. “If Beijing intervenes with too much assertiveness, the US might revoke the preferential status of Hong Kong.”
He was referring to the US’ 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act which gives the city a special status. In June, American lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill requiring the US government to examine Hong Kong’s autonomy annually to decide whether to extend the arrangement.
Losing that status could cripple the operations of many businesses based in Hong Kong, said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international affairs expert.
Wang Yong, another specialist on international political economy with Peking University, agreed.
“There would be a lot of opposition from interest groups in the US. Hong Kong is the bridgehead for many multinational corporations and investors from Wall Street to get into the Chinese market,” said Wang, who also teaches at an academy affiliated with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Hong Kong and the Chinese government will need to handle this with extra care, so as not to give any ammunition to hawks in the United States.
“If Hong Kong is not handled properly, it could add tensions to the bilateral ties and ruin any prospect of a trade deal.”
Pang Zhongying, an international relations specialist at Ocean University of China in Qingdao, said direct intervention could also damage China’s ties with other countries.
“The whole world is watching. Beijing has exercised restraint for two months and still hasn’t taken any clear action because this is not an easy choice,” said Pang, who is also a member of the Beijing-based Pangoal Institution, a think tank that advises several ministerial offices.
While some observers said Beijing was under political pressure to end the protests in Hong Kong before October 1 – the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, Shi said the central government would not lose patience so easily.
“National Day [on October 1] is an important time, but the Chinese government is not naive to believe there has to be peace under all heaven then,” he said.
“It’s only a bit more than a month from now, we can almost say for sure the trade war will still be on by then and a major turning point in Hong Kong is not likely to happen. But the celebration must go on.”
RE
债务规模是GDP 的300%，还“很富裕”？世界首负才是真的！没哪个政府像中共那么疯狂借债，不顾明天。
现在搞死大陆比89容易多的多。。。
赞
3000亿当中的1600亿照旧 9/1，1100推迟 12/15，20亿取消
好奇取消的20亿是什么?
现在香港的事情越闹越大，英美联军会出兵，那中共自然就解体了。
稀土和某些医疗器械
美国债务连利息都还不了了，所以要降息。
哈哈， 喜欢mm的新词“含赵量”
看看国债最近的利率
不是民选政府 不用对人民负责 更不用对人民妥协
你是开玩笑的，是不是？
支持打仗的是以为自己刀枪不入炸弹炸不死吗。
最烦的就是这种论调：你经济发展太慢，你经济体量不够大，所以！你就没有说话的资格。一边呆着老实听话去。
真是悲哀，发展这么多年，全民洗脑的结果就是：有钱才有人权。没钱你连畜生都不如。
独裁者宁愿给外国下跪称臣都不会对百姓低头的。
我觉得就是找个机会宣布对tg实行经济制裁吧，师出有名了。
你去建议中央，取消港澳通行证吧。
切，小国无外交，这就是国际社会的丛林法则。
还有，对白眼狼好就是傻。
后果就是都觉得现在香港没用了，穷了，属于低端人口了，还敢不听话，那还了得。我们现在有钱了，都老老实实的，一定不能绕了敢闹事的
冷处理也挺好，惹不起，躲得起，不care 就三方都没人蹦跶了，非要面子有啥用
re
bingo
同时也为了明年大选打中国牌，争取选民，埋下伏笔
赞
白眼狼当年大逃港时全民出动帮助逃港大陆人，
白眼狼当年是唱中国心的，白眼狼在大陆水灾地震的时候不遗余力捐款捐物，
白眼狼的奶粉在三鹿事件后被大陆人一扫而空，
白眼狼傻
这么明显的事情，为什么版上的同学就是视而不见呢？
看着香港倒掉，为什么小粉红能那么兴奋？
你是中国人吗？ 政府再烂也不能希望中国被炸吧？ 你还有家人亲朋在国内吗？ 那颗洲际导弹偏一点就炸到你老家去了。
制裁中国，这种那么明显的嘴炮。。
89年中国对外都没多少联系，都搞不了几年。。
就现在中国这体量，这对全球经济的影响力。
制裁中国？全球各大企业/各大资本家分分钟教那些政客怎么做人。。
你们这种怎么就是视而不见呢？
好有画面感
你们只会赌这个，微信文章看得太多。你们根本不知道华盛顿政策转向，到底什么力量最后做了变化
不仅仅是民意的力量，驱动了川普使用的贸易大棒和后面很可能动用的金融大棒啊
看着你们这么愚昧无知且狂妄，就很悲哀
那会儿美国最大的敌人是谁啊？
是苏联啊！联中抗苏是既定国策，现在呢？
中国是最大的敌人哪，之前民主党人还主张俄罗斯是而中国不是，现在天朝搞大了香港问题，滥用警力，怒怼国际媒体，你们一群粉红在各个社交媒体蹦跶造势，简直就是自己往矛盾的中心站啊！
川普顺势收割民意，简直顺水推舟，还为明年大选打中国牌，埋下伏笔
这都有人踩。 华人论坛莫非已经被非华人全面攻陷了？ 有什么正常的中国人会希望中国被炸啊？？？
还金融大棒，华尔街天天盼星星盼月亮希望进入中国市场。。支持川普有限度打贸易战也是为了打开中国市场，而不是打垮中国。。这根本逻辑搞搞清楚。。
全面制裁中国？伊朗这样？哪个总统敢这么玩，哪个总统下台，就这么简单。。
你们这种愚昧无知的屁民，要不要多学习学习基本常识？
我赞成美国是想进入金融市场 但这明摆着只是美国的其中一个目的，
总的来说就是不想让中国超过美国，不然不会在贸易协定里面加上
“不能发展中国2025计划”这种文字，尼玛一个贸易协定跟老子发展科技
有毛关系？
你这是哪个屯的华尔街？小强前一段时间表示中国将持续金融开放，华尔街反应那个冷淡啊，脸不疼吗。
你这种愚昧无知的p民，还是老实蹲墙里当鹌鹑吧。
鹰方有鹰方的诉求，但非主流，关键是没钱，不是金主爸爸。。
企业/金融界对中国2025的诉求很简单。。
你中国可以发展可以升级，但1）不能靠偷我IP来实现 2）政府扶持要有个限度。每项新技术研发背后都是几十/上百亿美元的投入，企业/金融界进行这些投入是要有回报的。你中国政府乱来，不顾回报的疯狂烧钱，把整个行业玩垮，其它人怎么办？别人以后还投资不投资了？所以要遵守基本游戏规则
各方都有各自诉求，但西方民主政治，最后金主爸爸说了算。。
中国的体制确实有问题。不要忘了幼儿园，不要忘了雷洋。舆论媒体真是个好东西，两边的人都被舆论牵着走，用香港人骂打大陆人求独立来煽动大陆人反港，用香港人丢失的优越感社会压力煽动香港人反大陆。。。真正要反的是体制才对，可惜被感情冲昏了头脑，两边的人都太骄傲了没有办法去真的了解对方，明明应该站在一条战线上的，却成为了敌人。
中国金融哪开放了？这才哪到哪，开放程度和当初承诺的差太远了。。
被忽悠了几十年要开放，结果一直不开放，能不冷淡么？
你这种低智商屁民，滚远点
扯淡 美国是全世界的唯一超级大国 打中国这种三流国家就像虐一只蚂蚁一样轻松
其实也未必，朋友圈里有几个热血的，经常发比如身为普通人，我们应该如何支持祖国，etc。每次发完下面点赞评论的寥寥无几，远不如发个美食美景啥的点赞的多。所以我觉得很多中国老百姓也没有那么傻，被忽悠的团团转。
97年时香港用的是自己的货币储备，动用了1200亿港币逼退了国际炒家，没用大陆救。中央只是表达了一下精神上支持而已。
东江水是高价卖香港，有年干旱，香港说少买点，广东政府不答应，因为是笔不少的收入。大亚湾电力大部份供应香港，但是香港是有投资的。人真没占你什么便宜。
89当时也号称制裁了不卖给中国武器了呀，一直到现在都是
制裁也就那么回事
听听就好
开放到现在连个visa 卡都刷不了了
我同意你对美国提出的要求的看法，确实是那两点: 一个是限制IP转让;一个是更重要的,不能用举国体制来进行科技行业的竞争
说到底就是要“遵循游戏规则”。说到这里已经走入死胡同了。这纯粹是一个基于凯恩斯的自由市场主义者要求一个基于列宁的国家社会主义去遵循一个自由市场准则，深入到底是要中国进行政治和经济体制改革，这是贸易协定搞不定的事情。
对于美国来说,公司, 是一个独立于政府,享有充分市场竞争权利的实体.
对于中国来说,公司,特别是国有企业,以及一些政府扶植的看上去像私营企业的党产,其实是挂着公司招牌的政府.
美国要求中国政府不给企业补贴,那不就等于说, 一个政府的资产不能用来补贴另外一个政府的部门吗?
这在国家社会主义看来是荒谬的
事实上中国用举国体制搞竞争又不是现在才有.体育比赛,原子弹研发都这样.
美国怎么没有要求中国不能用体育总局去补贴尖子生呢?要知道中国的尖子训练都是国家出钱,美国全是自己掏钱. 关键在于体育比赛不影响国家安全和竞争力!
我就觉得你是一高级黑
真是白眼狼。
这次自己搞定。不要麻烦中央咯。说的好像97年韩国日本的靠的了自己似的。