这篇帖子把华为案子说的很透彻了,再看不懂的,肯定不是智商问题,原贴目前已被和谐

N
Narnia
101 楼
国内还是有明白之人的 可惜大部分都说美国是没证据抓人呢
乌合之众 那本书真是神预言


这篇帖子把华为案子说的很透彻了,再看不懂的,肯定不是智商问题,原贴目前已被和谐华为案的基础信息  历史之瞳  发表于 2018年12月10日
前言
基于同等的价格与质量,峰哥首选国货,所以用了多年的华为。
走遍全球上千家企业,华为一直是峰哥眼中最优秀的中国企业,任总也是最优秀的中国企业家。珠三角和长三角有很多优秀企业,之所以说华为最优秀,因为:
大多优秀企业只在国内称王,少数能在近海转转,而华为不同,早就冲出国门,一直在全球市场的蓝海中竞争,且成绩斐然;在各种泡末经济的喧嚣中,在触手可及的挣快钱的巨大诱惑面前,华为数十年一直坚守基础制造业,其恒心难得;和单一产品制造商不同,华为是通讯基础设施的整体供应商,这需要超凡的系统管理、踏实的技术积累和持久的商业信誉,这正是国内企业所稀缺的。
孟女士加拿大被拘,非常值得关注。我们需要了解事情的来龙去脉,摆事实、讲道理,理清思路。亚舟先生的信息简洁明了:
加拿大的保释听证会提供了很多信息,本案确实与出口管制设备给伊朗有关,但孟女士被拘押起诉并非出口违规的事情,而是美方指控华为公司为出口设备给伊朗,欺骗金融机构,掩盖华为和它的白手套公司Skycom之间的真实关系。
首先需要了解,
美国的出口管制规则
游戏规则大概是这样的,美国并不关心谁和伊朗做生意,但美国禁止把美国产品卖给伊朗。所以你不能把美国的东西买过来,然后转卖给伊朗。这在你买东西的时候会签订保证函,保证不会卖给伊朗。但即使你签了字,然后把东西卖给伊朗,美国也没撤,自认倒霉被骗。当然,虽然美国没有办法处罚你,但就会把你列入黑名单,不会再卖东西给你。但是如果你想继续这个游戏,还要继续买美国东西,那美国政府就会开出罚单,如果你不认罚,那就一拍二散,你走你的阳关道,我走我的独木桥,各玩各的。这就是中兴的案子。
如果你更聪明,为了绕开美国的管制规定,想既把东西卖给禁运国,但又不让美国发现,于是就成立一家空壳公司,出了问题就甩包给空壳公司。但交易都需要通过银行进行,如果中间公司通过欺骗在美国营业的银行来完成交易,这就从普通违规行为,变成了“欺诈金融机构”的刑事犯罪。在美国,欺骗银行是联邦重罪,刑期可达30年。所以,同样违反出口管制,中兴只是行政处罚,而孟女士面临坐牢的刑事指控。
比较中兴和华为。中兴比较“笨”,什么都自己干,直接出口给伊朗。华为更“聪明”,搞了个白手套挡在前面,以为可以避开管制,结果升级为刑案指控,并要公司负责人担责。在中兴法务部印发的学习材料里面详细描述了华为如何规避管制通过Skycom出口(文件贴在美国商务商的网站上)的策略,中兴本来是要照华为的葫芦画自己的瓢,结果瓢还没画成就被处罚了,幸亏如此,中兴仅被罚款了事。但中兴法务的这份材料成为美方调查的重要线索,某个角度,华为给中兴坑了。
继续追溯到,
美国的出口管制法案
一、《出口管理条例》(简称EAR)
本条例对大范围的原产于美国的商品、软件和技术的出口、转出口和视同出口做出规定,包括民用、军民两用或有扩散应用特性的商品、软件和技术。EAR管制的所有物项列在《商业管制清单》(下称CCL)中。BIS  负责监管出口管制系统,包括出口许可证的审批、行政处罚、刑事犯罪调查,司法部负责刑事处罚。几乎所有参与管制物项相关交易的个人或公司都有责任遵守《出口管理条例》。
二、《国际军火交易条例》(简称ITAR)
ITAR禁止从美国或美国境外出口或转出口在  《美国军火清单》(下称USML)中所列主要适用于军用、原产于美国的防务产品和服务。国务院国防贸易管制局(下称DDTC)负责清单所列物项的许可证审批和行政处罚,国土安全调查部门(HSI)或美国联邦调查局(FBI)负责刑事犯罪调查,司法部负责刑事处罚。从事USML  所列防务产品和服务的制造商、出口商及代理商必须在DDTC备案。任何个人或公司从事防务
产品和服务出口或临时进口业务必须获得DDTC 许可。
三、《国际紧急经济权力法案》(简称IEEPA)
IEEPA授权美国总统,在美国的国家安全、外交政策或美国经济遭受异常或特别威胁时,可以阻止相关交易并冻结财产。财政部海外资产管理办公室(下称OFAC  ),依据 IEEPA监管美国的多项经济和贸易制裁,通过发布一系列制裁清单来禁止与诸如伊朗和朝鲜等国的贸易,同时在《特别指定国民名单》(下称“SDN  名单”)中还列出了很多被禁的个人和实体的名单。
四、其它专项法案
所有参与原产于美国的商品、软件、  技术和服务交易的个人和实体必须密切关注和遵守美国制裁与出口管制法律。一旦违反,将导致非常严厉的刑事或民事惩罚。根据出口管制法案,任何公司向古巴、伊朗、叙利亚、朝鲜和苏丹五大禁运国直接或间接出口管制产品都必须申请出口许可证,如果违反管制法规,公司有可能受到三个严重处罚:
1、高额民事赔偿
2、高管被判监禁
3、公司被列入黑名单,一定时期内不能购买美国产品。
当时中兴受到的处罚是1、3项
特别提示!根据《出口管理条例》EAR规定,将受管制的高科技技术披露给位于美国境内的一个外国人,被视为向该个人的国籍所属国的出口,披露方在披露之前有义务获得出口许可。通常情况下,从事高科技、生化、医疗、计算机和其它科学研究和开发活动的大学、研究机构是视同出口许可的申请人,特别是当它们需要向位于美国境内的外国学生或访问者披露管制信息时。
美国法律的适用性问题
关于美国凭什么用国内法来管外国人和外国公司做生意,是不是手伸得太长了,这就牵扯到所谓的“域外管辖”概念。美国出口管制的法律基础是“属物管理”,也就是说只管东西,只要你签了合规协议,买了我的东西,我就要管。对于中兴的行政处罚就是依据这个来的。
那么刑事司法管辖呢?这就要看事情发生在哪里,也就是说,如果外国人在美国犯了事,那美国就要管。其实各国的法律都差不多,比如说一个美国人在中国犯了法,中国当然能管。
美方现在指控华为在美国买美国产品,欺骗美国银行说最终用户是Skycom,然后又通过Skycom转卖给伊朗,并且通过美国的银行完成了交易。美国拿到的证据,包括孟女士的PPT、华为和Skycom(人员、员工邮箱,连信纸都是华为的)实际是一家公司,于是美国起诉抓人。可是嫌疑人不在美国,美国就通过有引渡条约的国家请求帮忙拘捕。加拿大同意抓人,所以孟女士在温哥华被拘。假如中美之间有引渡条约,那美国就会请中方帮忙抓人,当然基于互惠原则,美方也有义务帮中国抓捕那些跑到美国的贪官。可惜中美之间还没有引渡条约。
出口管制案例
2015年年初,美国司法部公布了一份长达96页的文件,标题为“美国出口执法、经济间谍、商业秘密和与禁运有关的重要刑事案件概要”(Summary of Major U.S. Export Enforcement, Economic Espionage, Trade Secret and Embargo-Related Criminal Cases)。该文列出了案发时间从2008年1月至2015年1月的248件违反美国出口管制法规的案件,其中有78个案子与伊朗有关。这些案件分别由国土安全局、联邦调查局、商业部工业和安全局BIS以及五角大楼国防刑事调查局DCIS等执法机构侦办。
2018年年1月,美国司法部再次公布了同类案件的最新文件,列举了自2015年以来的96件违法出口案,涉及伊朗的案件有27个,其中就包括2017年裁决的、与中伊都有关联的中兴案。
出口管制案件的涉案主体是外国公民和企业,包括持有绿卡的侨民,但是也有不少美国公民,甚至包括曾经在美军服役的军人。涉案最多的国家就是伊朗,包括战机部件和材料、与核武研发有关的离心泵器材、导航和信息技术等。
2013年1月,得克萨斯州西区法院判处乔尔·斯通(Joel Stone)入狱24个月。斯通的罪名是把军级激光瞄准具非法出口到美国的紧邻友邦加拿大。
2014年7月,兰迪·鲍勃(Randy Barber)和共犯约翰·塔利(John Talley)在佛罗里达州中区法院受审,罪名是违反《国际紧急经济权力法》IEEPA和《伊朗交易法规》(Iranian Transaction Regulations),向伊朗出口和转出口先进计算机设备并提供信息技术支持。上述两项法规都是因为伊朗违反国际核不扩散条约而制定的。鲍勃和塔利分别被判处60个月和30个月的刑期和40多万美元罚款。
2014年7月,美国指控法国巴黎银行(BNP)为苏丹等黑名单国家转移资金,被罚89亿美元。
2015年3月,纽约州指控德国商业银行帮助伊朗和苏丹等国转移资金等问题,被罚17亿美元。
小结
1、华为依然是合规问题。本次被诉的,是逃避出口管制引发的“金融欺诈”罪名。孟女士面临刑事指控,问题比中兴的更严重。
2、本案走的是司法程序,这是美国政治的另一极权力。想川普去年在推特上拉黑骂他的平民,竟被法庭判处违法,可见川普并不能给司法系统作批示。
3、纽约东区检方实力很强,历史上起诉定罪的成功率极高。
面对美国的强势,怎么办?
有二个思路。
A、如果你坚信现在的美国,是从林霸权。那就按照斗争思维来,在能打败强者之前,应当保持低调,一心一意谋发展,也就是国人熟悉的“深挖洞、广积粮、缓称王”。
B、如果你判断现在的美国,是文明霸权。那就按照协商规则来,向文明靠拢,和美国搞好关系。
也就是说,不管怎么样的思维方式,最佳博弈都应该尽量避免和美国冲突。
期望华为和任总早日走出困境。
不忘初心,砥砺前行。

富 发表于 12/10/2018 9:21:00 PM
g
gg1815
102 楼
写的很清楚,谢转载
s
susancoffee
103 楼
美国耍流氓的时候多着呢。中国好多都是跟美国学的…前面的帖子说的很清楚了,这就是政治斗争的一种手段。别的国家哪有这么纯洁…文章也说了出口管制违规的案件有78件,中国一共也就华为和中兴两件,而且华为还不是被包括在那78件里面的…剩下的77件是哪些国家哪些企业干的呢?
真是很反感自省党,一点逻辑都不讲就开始各种批判…


这种思维方式就是中国玩不了游戏规则的主要原因,从根本上就没尊重过规则,更不会费心去研究

Foodstar 发表于 12/10/2018 11:09:00 PM
k
kylermin
104 楼
国内还是有明白之人的 可惜大部分都说美国是没证据抓人呢
乌合之众 那本书真是神预言

Narnia 发表于 12/11/2018 2:01:41 PM [/url]


这个帖子如果不是被和谐,乌合之众会不会少些?

所有有什么样的老佛爷,就有什么样的拳民。

等袁大帅破除迷信的时候,拳民就傻眼了。
y
youyin
105 楼
看明白了
s
susancoffee
106 楼
这个才比较靠谱!这个事情明摆着就是要搞华为,因为华为是中国企业。三星和爱立信美国就不追究,这文章讲的很清楚了


https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/12/08/prosecuting-chinese-huawei-executive-is-an-idiotic-way-hold-china-check/?utm_term=.dd852d63229e
Prosecuting the Chinese Huawei executive is an idiotic way to hold China in check
By Zachary Karabell
Zachary Karabell is the author of several books, including “The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World.”
December 8
The U.S.-China relationship seemed to improve last week at the G-20 summit in Argentina, where President Trump announced he had reached an important agreement with President Xi Jinping. Then, an ominous development: American authorities asked Canada to arrest the chief financial officer of one of China’s largest technologies companies for alleged sanctions fraud and violations of U.S. export controls. Meng Wanzhou isn’t just a top leader at Huawei, which makes phones and other gadgets; she is also the daughter of the company’s founder and chairman, which makes her arrest somewhat like the Chinese arresting the daughter of Steve Jobs if she had helped run Apple. It would be an understatement to say that Beijing did not react well: It demanded her release and accused the U.S. government of violating the rights of a Chinese citizen.
The timing could hardly be worse, and from what can be told, it reflects the overall chaos of the Trump administration. National security adviser John Bolton claimed he was informed of the pending arrest by the Justice Department but did not pass that information to the president. That no one in the White House considered the implications of her arrest on the tenuous trade truce between China and the United States is itself rather astonishing.
The case against Huawei and its executives may be legitimate under U.S. law, but it is nonetheless a hideous political mistake. Perhaps Huawei used American-made components in equipment it sold to Iran, violating U.S. sanctions. But even in less ambiguous cases, there is always such a thing as prosecutorial discretion. Not every case that can be brought should be brought, and not every case should be prosecuted to the full letter of the law. In international cases, that is doubly true. If the United States wants to respond to China’s rise and manage the changing role of the United States in the international system, it could hardly have picked a dumber tactic.
Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, left, appears at a bail hearing in Vancouver, B.C. (Jane Wolsak/Reuters) (Stringer/Reuters)
Huawei is not exactly a noble avatar of social responsibility. Since at least 2016, when President Barack Obama was in office, the Commerce Department has been investigating Huawei for export violations to Iran and North Korea. In the spring of 2017, the Treasury Department opened its own inquiry.
Even before that, though, Huawei operated on the margins of legality. In 2003, Cisco sued it for copying some of the code used in its routers. (Huawei admitted as much before the trial and promised to stop.) In 2012, a House committee named the company as a potential threat to U.S. national security because of its ties to the Chinese government, its legacy of intellectual property theft and its ability to embed spyware in its phones. The United States, Australia and New Zealand have already blocked Huawei from being part of the initial build-out of the next generation 5G telecom networks.
Even if everything alleged is correct, however, the quest against Huawei is a ridiculous overreach — predicated on an assumption that the United States can dictate how foreign competitors conduct business. Yes, the company has deep ties with the Chinese Communist Party, though it’s worth mulling whether those are any more pernicious than the close bonds that connect defense contractors such as Boeing and Lockheed with the Pentagon.
More important, global supply chains are now deeply interconnected and touch multiple countries and numerous companies. Samsung, for instance, is the second largest cellphone provider in Iran, behind Huawei, while the Swedish telecom company Ericsson has been selling equipment to Iran even under the sanctions. Those companies may have done a better job not using American components for products sold to those countries, though with the complexity of global component sourcing, it is unlikely that no American intellectual property has been used by Iranian consumers. Yet U.S. prosecutors are not trying to curtail the work of those mega-technology giants, or aggressively investigating where every component originated.
Samsung and Ericsson, of course, are domiciled in countries that are American allies, whereas Huawei is tightly connected to what is now being seen by many as a prime American adversary. The initial reaction in China, judging by the social media flow and some interviews, is that the Americans are using their legal system to advance political interests in an ongoing contest with China.
There is a long and debated legacy on how far American laws extend. On the one hand, the Supreme Court has recognized a “presumption against extraterritoriality,” which holds that U.S. laws should not be enforced outside the United States. On the other, there are statutes such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which punishes bribery by foreign entities. Sanctions occupy a zone of their own, whereby the U.S. government has acted against other countries by threatening foreign companies that do business with them, if they also do business in the U.S. To the degree that the United States has enjoyed dominant economic power relative to any one country that might object, it has been able to use law enforcement as one tool among many to achieve policy objectives.
That works, however, primarily where there are stark power imbalances, which is clearly not the case with China. Arresting the No. 2 executive of one of the world’s largest technology companies is an ineffective way to achieve policy aims — and a very effective way to complicate negotiations that matter rather more. It’s one thing to ban Huawei’s 5G components from the U.S. market, a defensible response to a perceived threat. That’s an unassailable invocation of American sovereignty (which would still carry a steep economic and political cost).
It’s something else entirely to arrest a very senior executive and potentially try her for evading U.S. export controls. Using law enforcement against individuals for corporate actions of this sort risks backfiring spectacularly. It is easily painted as a crude attempt by the Trump administration to put pressure on Beijing in the coming trade negotiations, even if that is not the actual intent. It exposes American executives to potential retaliation in China and abroad in a tit-for-tat that will chill an already frosty business climate, with direct effects on the domestic American economy and markets. And it may succeed only in pushing technology even further into national camps that compete and develop their own protocols, which appears to be happening with the evolution of artificial intelligence. We can hope to win that competition, but it will prove costlier than the mutual dependence that defined much of the past two decades.

northernpike 发表于 12/11/2018 12:59:00 AM
s
susancoffee
107 楼
讨论的就是这个案件的严重程度一般是不足以让美国要求全球追捕及引渡的。


大叔,这不叫上报,就是打个招呼。不用他批准的。这个跟它是刑事还是民事也没关系。法官发了逮捕令,就拿去执行。你没看老船长那么大嘴巴,对这件事,基本屁都不放一个?他手不够长,管不着。

meanGirl 发表于 12/11/2018 8:34:00 AM
s
syqingyu
108 楼
清晰明了
S
SubDivision2006
109 楼
华盛顿邮报怎么了?是因为它家专栏作家被电锯了没人管生气了吗?
还是太胖胖
110 楼
原帖写得很中立,就事论事分析,为啥要被和谐?
k
kfccfk
111 楼
美国耍流氓的时候多着呢。中国好多都是跟美国学的…前面的帖子说的很清楚了,这就是政治斗争的一种手段。别的国家哪有这么纯洁…文章也说了出口管制违规的案件有78件,中国一共也就华为和中兴两件,而且华为还不是被包括在那78件里面的…剩下的77件是哪些国家哪些企业干的呢?
真是很反感自省党,一点逻辑都不讲就开始各种批判…

susancoffee 发表于 12/11/2018 2:24:00 PM

那就祈求自己好运多福,违规违法别被抓到。抓到了就认栽,愿赌服输,别唧唧歪歪颠倒是非。自己被抓了,就问那另外77家怎么不抓啊?人家抓谁不抓谁是你控制的了的吗?你有那实力去控制人去抓那77家就不抓你吗?

逻辑确实很重要,但按照好处尽是你得的逻辑去玩儿游戏,你以后还得输。
C
Centauri
112 楼

那就祈求自己好运多福,违规违法别被抓到。抓到了就认栽,愿赌服输,别唧唧歪歪颠倒是非。自己被抓了,就问那另外77家怎么不抓啊?人家抓谁不抓谁是你控制的了的吗?你有那实力去控制人去抓那77家就不抓你吗?

逻辑确实很重要,但按照好处尽是你得的逻辑去玩儿游戏,你以后还得输。

kfccfk 发表于 12/11/2018 3:22:30 PM


楼上有不愿赌服输,颠倒是非么?她有说就是不该抓啊不该抓么?她有说她可以控制人家抓谁不抓谁么?

她明明针对的是这儿那些“自省党,一点逻辑都不讲就开始各种批判”而已。

华为被抓,是对是错另说。但某些“自省党”的逻辑还是有些荒唐的。不要觉得别人指出自省党逻辑荒唐之处,就代表华为不该被抓。

就好像差学生做证明题,胡做一通,被判零分,这绝不说明证明题的结论是错的,只说明那学生差而已。
k
kylermin
113 楼
原帖写得很中立,就事论事分析,为啥要被和谐?
还是太胖胖 发表于 12/11/2018 3:14:49 PM [/url]


不和谐客观中立的东西,廊畜怎么煽动造谣?

就这帖子贴着一天了。还有廊畜跳出来说美国无缘无故捉人呢。
是。美国是借机兴风作浪。但是华为真没有把柄么? 中兴的文件还帖那呢。
A
ArcticCat
114 楼
tid=2368651,pid=79280802

老中还没回过味来?还游戏规则呢?给了你十几年的时间玩,还不够?现在是要把你踢出去,再望死里整,还谈游戏规则?真是幼稚。
不要谈人家打压你。跟老美混的,都是吃香喝辣,看看日,韩,新,这些以前的小穷国,就是例子。给了你机会你乱来,别怪人家翻脸。
中国称王,凭什么?你看下你现在身边的东西,有那一样不是老美的发明,有那一样是中国的发明?这么跟你讲,中国称王,这辈子没可能。你就完全不是个现代国家。
meanGirl 发表于 12/11/2018 8:44:21 AM

那个,四大发明啊四大发明。